Ivan Advisories
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- senorpepr
- Military Met/Moderator
- Posts: 12542
- Age: 43
- Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
- Location: Mackenbach, Germany
- Contact:
913mb!!!
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 11/2044Z
B. 18 DEG 05 MIN N
79 DEG 20 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2337 M
D. NA KT
E. NA DEG NA NM
F. 203 DEG 150 KT
G. 122 DEG 009 NM
H. 913 MB
I. 11 C/ 3121 M
J. 24 C/ 3098 M
K. 14 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. CO17-20
N. 12345/07
O. 0.1/ 1 NM
P. AF966 2009A IVAN OB 18
MAX FL WIND 161 KT NE QUAD 1909Z.
A. 11/2044Z
B. 18 DEG 05 MIN N
79 DEG 20 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2337 M
D. NA KT
E. NA DEG NA NM
F. 203 DEG 150 KT
G. 122 DEG 009 NM
H. 913 MB
I. 11 C/ 3121 M
J. 24 C/ 3098 M
K. 14 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. CO17-20
N. 12345/07
O. 0.1/ 1 NM
P. AF966 2009A IVAN OB 18
MAX FL WIND 161 KT NE QUAD 1909Z.
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
Look at the loop and check off "forecast points." You can see that it is slowly moving south of the NHC track.
Look at the loop and check off "forecast points." You can see that it is slowly moving south of the NHC track.
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- southerngale
- Retired Staff
- Posts: 27418
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 1:27 am
- Location: Southeast Texas (Beaumont area)
Trof To Move Ivan N, Then NE??
The trof diving into the Central and Western Gulf states look like it could pull Ivan into the SE GUlf and move it north and then Northeast intp West Central or The Nature Coast Of Florida. The NHC track looks alittle to far west (plus Ivan will not move due north). Thoughts and comments welcomed.
http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat ... op-12.html
Robert
http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat ... op-12.html
Robert

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-
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 152
- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:17 pm
- Location: Indian Rocks Beach, Fl
Southern Watusi


While I'm still very concerned and don't feel out of the woods yet (the Charley turn), I do feel like a valium has kicked in. I didn't realize how "alert" my mind and body has been for the last 4 days.
While I take a little bit of a breath, I can feel some of you holding yours in.

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Ivan Tracking and Models
OK, I'll bite.
Sanibel, according to the UKMET, you will get a good scare.
While the NHC track gives the coast a wide berth, our friends across the big pond have Ivan skirting a bit closer to the west coast before taking aim just east of Apalachicola on wednesday morning as an "intense" storm.
here's their take:
Sanibel, according to the UKMET, you will get a good scare.
While the NHC track gives the coast a wide berth, our friends across the big pond have Ivan skirting a bit closer to the west coast before taking aim just east of Apalachicola on wednesday morning as an "intense" storm.

here's their take:
WTNT80 EGRR 111919
MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC
AND ATLANTIC
GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 11.09.2004
HURRICANE IVAN ANALYSED POSITION : 17.6N 78.2W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092004
VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 11.09.2004 17.6N 78.2W INTENSE
00UTC 12.09.2004 18.4N 80.7W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.09.2004 19.1N 81.2W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.09.2004 20.2N 82.8W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.09.2004 21.5N 83.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 14.09.2004 22.6N 84.7W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 14.09.2004 25.3N 84.4W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.09.2004 27.5N 85.4W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.09.2004 28.8N 86.0W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 16.09.2004 30.2N 85.0W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 16.09.2004 32.5N 85.0W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 17.09.2004 33.5N 83.6W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 17.09.2004 34.8N 84.3W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT
MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK
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http://www.cnn.com/US/9805/27/florida.f ... hicola.jpg
Map of Apalachicola's location in FL for those who don't know.
Map of Apalachicola's location in FL for those who don't know.
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145998
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Ivan the 6th strongest hurricane ever in atlantic
Fox news just reported that fact.Wow from it's birth Ivan has made many records some of them already tragic.
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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