Ivan Advisories

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latemodel25
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#5381 Postby latemodel25 » Sat Sep 11, 2004 11:42 pm

We have a local met in Tampa named Dennis Phillips and your way of conversing is similar to him. Thanks! keep up the good work. :D
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gkrangers

#5382 Postby gkrangers » Sat Sep 11, 2004 11:42 pm

wabbitoid wrote:If it doesn't turn NW in the next few hours, will it ever?
Yes.



In other news...new recon should be avaliable in the next 60-90 minutes.
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CYCLONE MIKE
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#5383 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Sat Sep 11, 2004 11:42 pm

The trough he is talking about, is it the one currently over north Texas and LA? If so it looks really weak and I don't think it will even make it through the state to have much of any impact on Ivan. Or is it one that has not developed as of yet?
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Sean in New Orleans
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#5384 Postby Sean in New Orleans » Sat Sep 11, 2004 11:45 pm

CYCLONE MIKE wrote:The trough he is talking about, is it the one currently over north Texas and LA? If so it looks really weak and I don't think it will even make it through the state to have much of any impact on Ivan. Or is it one that has not developed as of yet?

Yes...that is the trough that he (and the NHC) has been watching that could affect Ivan's path. This is what most think will take it to the panhandle of Florida. I, too, have been recently second guessing this trough. It does appear that Ivan will miss this trough, IMO.
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CYCLONE MIKE
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#5385 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Sat Sep 11, 2004 11:45 pm

Is there going to be a stopping point to where these tracks quit coming further west, and if so what? In the sat. loops I just don't see anything as of now.
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Scott_inVA
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#5386 Postby Scott_inVA » Sat Sep 11, 2004 11:46 pm

0Z CMC now on the model map

http://www.midatlanticwx.com/modelmap.htm
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Re: Could this possibly miss the Caymans?

#5387 Postby Stormcenter » Sat Sep 11, 2004 11:48 pm

Raebie wrote:At least the eye? What is the best and worse case scenario at this point.

I'm sorry to start a new thread on this, but I've been listening to them on the web for 5 hours now, and have received 2 emails from the DJ's. They need info. What's going on with the immediate track?

TIA


It will be a VERY close call especially if Ivan starts has started his NW movement.
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Frank P
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#5388 Postby Frank P » Sat Sep 11, 2004 11:49 pm

LowMug wrote:
Lindaloo wrote:Low Mug? How can you be South of St. Andrews? That would put you out in the Gulf.


yep pretty much...800 yards away from the Gulf :cry: ...I meant south of the entrance to St. Andrews


hmmmm, I'm about 65 yards from the seawall, and another 100 yards from the GOM, or MS sound so to speak.. but I am 20 feet above sea level, one of the highest beach front homes in Biloxi.... thank the lord...
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CYCLONE MIKE
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#5389 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Sat Sep 11, 2004 11:49 pm

Sean, I live down the road from you in Gonzales. In your opinon if this trough does not catch him what does Ivan do from there? Just sit and wait for another to pick him up, or move further west then north?
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#5390 Postby latemodel25 » Sat Sep 11, 2004 11:51 pm

In the last loop before shutting down it looked like a big jog north. Can this thing go straight up the center of cuba and hit the keys? It certainly looks possible to me. Its so big it seems as if its steering itself.
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#5391 Postby Lockhart » Sat Sep 11, 2004 11:51 pm

Wow, those models just keep running left.
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dennis1x1

#5392 Postby dennis1x1 » Sat Sep 11, 2004 11:53 pm

got a 4am from goes10......
disregard the grid though...its fitted for goes12

nw.....also for the first time in a while the eye is looking "worse" than the frame before....at least we may be able to say that the current "bomb" has leveled...

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn/t ... N-796W.jpg
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Sean in New Orleans
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#5393 Postby Sean in New Orleans » Sat Sep 11, 2004 11:55 pm

CYCLONE MIKE wrote:Sean, I live down the road from you in Gonzales. In your opinon if this trough does not catch him what does Ivan do from there? Just sit and wait for another to pick him up, or move further west then north?

Good question...we'll have to wait and see. The system would likely move slowly North from wherever it is in the Gulf simply from a polar pull. It could also stay somewhat stationery until another trough "arrives," and pulls it N or NE. This is speculation, though, way out on something that may or may not happen. I doubt the storm will be in the Gulf, though, in 4 or 5 days---it'll likely be giving people somewhere in the SE United States major problems.
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NorthGaWeather

#5394 Postby NorthGaWeather » Sat Sep 11, 2004 11:58 pm

calidoug wrote:Yeah, the last frame didn't show a west wobble. It was NW, with the eye also distorting a bit.

The last 12 frames (through 0345Z) work out to a heading of 300. (1/3 of the way from W to N)

2145Z: 79.71W, 18.03N
0345Z: 80.03W, 18.21N

(Measured using large blowups of those frames)


Well I quess its moved south then because the 11pm advisory was 18.3 N and 0345z is 1145.
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#5395 Postby camilletider » Sat Sep 11, 2004 11:59 pm

The best bet for it would probably be a landfall in the Apalachee Bay area where Frances cooled the water down some. Otherwise, it doesn't look very good except for the forcasted shear.
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NorthGaWeather

#5396 Postby NorthGaWeather » Sun Sep 12, 2004 12:00 am

Oh and at 21z it was 18.2 N.
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Stormcenter
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Will the NHC increase Ivan's for 2am advisory?

#5397 Postby Stormcenter » Sun Sep 12, 2004 12:03 am

Who thinks the NHC will increase Ivan's winds at 2am?

I say they will increase them to. 175pmh.
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dennis1x1

#5398 Postby dennis1x1 » Sun Sep 12, 2004 12:04 am

based on latest sat....i guess no. it appears to have peaked a couple of hours ago...


heres the 4:30 goes10....again...disregard the grid...

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/archdat/trop ... N-796W.jpg
Last edited by dennis1x1 on Sun Sep 12, 2004 12:07 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#5399 Postby deguy50 » Sun Sep 12, 2004 12:07 am

no but its looking like its going more northwest now
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#5400 Postby latemodel25 » Sun Sep 12, 2004 12:12 am

appreciate your honesty and knowledge on hurricanes. I didnt read all the b.s youre refering to and im glad I didnt. so where do you think this ones going? I kinda am leaning towards more on a big bend hit. Too early to tell though.
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