Ivan Advisories

[latemodel25]

We have a local met in Tampa named Dennis Phillips and your way of conversing is similar to him. Thanks! keep up the good work.

[gkrangers]

If it doesn't turn NW in the next few hours, will it ever?

Yes.



In other news...new recon should be avaliable in the next 60-90 minutes.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

The trough he is talking about, is it the one currently over north Texas and LA? If so it looks really weak and I don't think it will even make it through the state to have much of any impact on Ivan. Or is it one that has not developed as of yet?

[Sean in New Orleans]

The trough he is talking about, is it the one currently over north Texas and LA? If so it looks really weak and I don't think it will even make it through the state to have much of any impact on Ivan. Or is it one that has not developed as of yet?

Yes...that is the trough that he (and the NHC) has been watching that could affect Ivan's path. This is what most think will take it to the panhandle of Florida. I, too, have been recently second guessing this trough. It does appear that Ivan will miss this trough, IMO.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Is there going to be a stopping point to where these tracks quit coming further west, and if so what? In the sat. loops I just don't see anything as of now.

[Scott_inVA]

0Z CMC now on the model map

http://www.midatlanticwx.com/modelmap.htm

[Stormcenter]

At least the eye? What is the best and worse case scenario at this point.

I'm sorry to start a new thread on this, but I've been listening to them on the web for 5 hours now, and have received 2 emails from the DJ's. They need info. What's going on with the immediate track?

TIA

It will be a VERY close call especially if Ivan starts has started his NW movement.

[Frank P]

Low Mug? How can you be South of St. Andrews? That would put you out in the Gulf.

yep pretty much...800 yards away from the Gulf ...I meant south of the entrance to St. Andrews

hmmmm, I'm about 65 yards from the seawall, and another 100 yards from the GOM, or MS sound so to speak.. but I am 20 feet above sea level, one of the highest beach front homes in Biloxi.... thank the lord...

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Sean, I live down the road from you in Gonzales. In your opinon if this trough does not catch him what does Ivan do from there? Just sit and wait for another to pick him up, or move further west then north?

[latemodel25]

In the last loop before shutting down it looked like a big jog north. Can this thing go straight up the center of cuba and hit the keys? It certainly looks possible to me. Its so big it seems as if its steering itself.

[Lockhart]

Wow, those models just keep running left.

[dennis1x1]

got a 4am from goes10......
disregard the grid though...its fitted for goes12

nw.....also for the first time in a while the eye is looking "worse" than the frame before....at least we may be able to say that the current "bomb" has leveled...

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn/t ... N-796W.jpg

[Sean in New Orleans]

Sean, I live down the road from you in Gonzales. In your opinon if this trough does not catch him what does Ivan do from there? Just sit and wait for another to pick him up, or move further west then north?

Good question...we'll have to wait and see. The system would likely move slowly North from wherever it is in the Gulf simply from a polar pull. It could also stay somewhat stationery until another trough "arrives," and pulls it N or NE. This is speculation, though, way out on something that may or may not happen. I doubt the storm will be in the Gulf, though, in 4 or 5 days---it'll likely be giving people somewhere in the SE United States major problems.

[NorthGaWeather]

Yeah, the last frame didn't show a west wobble. It was NW, with the eye also distorting a bit.

The last 12 frames (through 0345Z) work out to a heading of 300. (1/3 of the way from W to N)

2145Z: 79.71W, 18.03N
0345Z: 80.03W, 18.21N

(Measured using large blowups of those frames)

Well I quess its moved south then because the 11pm advisory was 18.3 N and 0345z is 1145.

[camilletider]

The best bet for it would probably be a landfall in the Apalachee Bay area where Frances cooled the water down some. Otherwise, it doesn't look very good except for the forcasted shear.

[NorthGaWeather]

Oh and at 21z it was 18.2 N.

[Stormcenter]

Who thinks the NHC will increase Ivan's winds at 2am?

I say they will increase them to. 175pmh.

[dennis1x1]

based on latest sat....i guess no. it appears to have peaked a couple of hours ago...


heres the 4:30 goes10....again...disregard the grid...

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/archdat/trop ... N-796W.jpg

[deguy50]

no but its looking like its going more northwest now

[latemodel25]

appreciate your honesty and knowledge on hurricanes. I didnt read all the b.s youre refering to and im glad I didnt. so where do you think this ones going? I kinda am leaning towards more on a big bend hit. Too early to tell though.