Ivan Advisories

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yzerfan
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#5841 Postby yzerfan » Sun Sep 12, 2004 11:16 am

We're on a ridge in BWB. Can't see storm surge/flooding being an issue, and our house made it through Opal okay.

We're monitoring the situation, blah, blah, blah and will also probably make a decision tonight.
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Stephanie
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#5842 Postby Stephanie » Sun Sep 12, 2004 11:17 am

Derek Ortt wrote:Avila is not as slow as it appears. From what I have heard, he gets more excited about a hurricane than does any of the other forecasters.


It seems that way in his forecasts.
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mobilebay
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GFS Joins club

#5843 Postby mobilebay » Sun Sep 12, 2004 11:18 am

The GFS has shifted left with landfall just west of Applachicola. Still waiting on other runs but this was the Eastern outlier? Maybe now the NHC will shift left?
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Re: GFS Joins club

#5844 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 12, 2004 11:20 am

mobilebay wrote:The GFS has shifted left with landfall just west of Applachicola. Still waiting on other runs but this was the Eastern outlier? Maybe now the NHC will shift left?


Do you have the link to that run?
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#5845 Postby SwampDawg » Sun Sep 12, 2004 11:20 am

Thanks for the replies everyone...I just thought it was an interesting article. I had heard of this before.
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Saitex
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#5846 Postby Saitex » Sun Sep 12, 2004 11:20 am

This link helps a lot with translating (does the work for you) http://flhurricane.com/recondecoder.php
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#5847 Postby PurdueWx80 » Sun Sep 12, 2004 11:22 am

Look how fast that outer eyewall is contracting...from 50 to 40 nm in an hour or less. This and the fact that the outflow is now excellent in all 4 quads suggests we'll see another rapid deepening in the next 6-12 hours...probably to the lowest pressure yet considering how low the pressure is now w/ respect to the previous eyewall replacement.
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baygirl_1
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From the Mobile NWS Forecast Discussion...

#5848 Postby baygirl_1 » Sun Sep 12, 2004 11:22 am

I don't like what I read, but I thought I'd share it with y'all.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
339 AM CDT SUN SEP 12 2004

.SHORT TERM...AN OMINOUS NOTE FOR WEATHER CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK IS THAT THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF THAT MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY IS NOW EXPECTED TO EJECT OUT THROUGH TUESDAY PER THE LATEST ETA...GFS AND CANADIAN GEM. WHILE THE RAMIFICATIONS OF THIS ARE STILL PLAYING OUT...THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE BASED ON NHC'S LATEST TRACK OF IVAN. FOR TODAY...THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS DOES NOT SHOW ANY VIABLE EVIDENCE OF THE WEAK FRONT OF YESTERDAY...MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT WHERE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR TODAY AS THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE NEARS THE AREA. WILL OPT FOR NOW TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS. ON MONDAY...THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT CONTINUES IN THE EJECTION PROCESS. WILL STAY WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MUCH OF THE COASTAL SECTIONS FOR NOW. ON TUESDAY...WITH IVAN EXPECTED TO ADVANCE INTO THE EAST CENTRAL GULF...HIGH END CHANCE POPS LOOK FINE FOR THE EASTERN AND COASTAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.EXTENDED...IVAN WILL DICTATE THE CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FOR THE COASTAL AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH MATCHES EXPECTED CONDITIONS WELL WITH NHC'S TRACK OF IVAN. DRIER CONDITIONS...OR AT LEAST SEASONABLE...FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF IVAN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.

ALL PERSONS ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION SHOULD HAVE A PREPAREDNESS PLAN IN PLACE...AND BE READY TO ACT SHOULD A HURRICANE WATCH OR WARNING BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS SOME PART OF OUR REGION IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
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#5849 Postby Juno Beach » Sun Sep 12, 2004 11:22 am

I really, REALLY want to take down the boards on my sliding glass doors. Is there any chance (ANY CHANCE) that this storm stalls or gets hooked up with some different steering mechanisms that can put me back in the cone?

Should I just live with the boards until it passes my latitude? I'm right at 27N on the east coast of FL.
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Pebbles
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#5850 Postby Pebbles » Sun Sep 12, 2004 11:23 am

Saitex wrote:This link helps a lot with translating (does the work for you) http://flhurricane.com/recondecoder.php


OH *drools* that has to be one of the most excellent links every posted!!! THANKYOU THANKYOU! I hate decoding with a passion..but one of those things I felt had to be done to follow these things.
Last edited by Pebbles on Sun Sep 12, 2004 11:31 am, edited 1 time in total.
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das8929

#5851 Postby das8929 » Sun Sep 12, 2004 11:23 am

Yea, im thinking maybe sub 910? Maybe even lower? 170 mph winds?
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Hurricane Cheese
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Is Ivan Expanding In Size!?!

#5852 Postby Hurricane Cheese » Sun Sep 12, 2004 11:25 am

Waking up this morning and looking at the IR, it seems like Ivan has gotten even BIGGER in size, or surface area.

It looks like the eye is becoming more centered in the CDO and that the ERC is going through...

Anyone else noticing this??
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#5853 Postby LAwxrgal » Sun Sep 12, 2004 11:25 am

That site is bookmarked. Thank you!
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Andrew 92/Isidore & Lili 02/Bill 03/Katrina & Rita 05/Gustav & Ike 08/Isaac 12 (flooded my house)/Harvey 17/Barry 19/Cristobal 20/Claudette 21/Ida 21 (In the Eye)/Francine 24
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bfez1
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Quote from local met here in New Orleans:

#5854 Postby bfez1 » Sun Sep 12, 2004 11:28 am

"It sure looks like tomorrow could be a critical day, as Ivan approaches the Gulf of Mexico. Everyone is looking at the models. The real question is how strong is that Atlantic ridge? The ETA and CMC bulge the ridge to the west coast of Florida. Combined with a weak steering flow over the mid Gulf by Monday and Tuesday and you get all kinds of headaches for us forecasters. I would really like to see the big NW/N turn tonight or tomorrow morning."

David Bernard
WWL-TV New Orleans
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#5855 Postby ZZ3Astro » Sun Sep 12, 2004 11:28 am

Well I checked on some motels in Panama City and everything so far has been booked.. the safe ones at least. :x

Not sure what the plan will be.. probably take our chances and ride it out at a house on higher ground, or send the wife and kids away on a long drive. I'm not leaving the county and being kept away from my house after the storm.

steve
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HurricaneQueen
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#5856 Postby HurricaneQueen » Sun Sep 12, 2004 11:29 am

THANK YOU for the link to the decoder. Can't wait to try it out! This site rocks as usual!
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GO FLORIDA GATORS

gkrangers

#5857 Postby gkrangers » Sun Sep 12, 2004 11:29 am

Yes its bigger, yes the eye is more centered, and yes, its currently going through an ERC.
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LCfromFL
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#5858 Postby LCfromFL » Sun Sep 12, 2004 11:30 am

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#5859 Postby Sanibel » Sun Sep 12, 2004 11:30 am

1) Obviously missed the trough.


2) Looks like a clean shot through Yucatan Channel at this point.


3) Brings an unhindered storm into the Gulf.


4) Real miss of trough slams NE tip of Yucatan.
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AL Chili Pepper
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#5860 Postby AL Chili Pepper » Sun Sep 12, 2004 11:31 am

Another. The 12Z is a bit different.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... arib.shtml
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