It depends on the forward speed. The slower a hurricane approaches, then the more time for water to fill the lake, and if it tracks east of here, then the wind will switch around to the north and pile up the water on the south shore.
The direction has different implications for the metro area.
Like passing a difference of 50 miles west can mean the difference between the westbank being flooded as opposed to the eastbank.
Ivan Advisories
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Stormchaser16
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clueless newbie
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Actually, there's a third cause of upwelling, which is most likely relevant in this case, on the current NHC track.
Offshore wind.
The surface water is replaced by water from lower down.
Happens all the time.
In this case, as Ivan approaches the panhandle, incredibly strong Easterly winds create offshore flow over the northern part of the florida peninsula, dragging cooler water into the path of the storm.
Furthermore, the *surface* water near the coast there is already cooler than normal from Frances.
Offshore wind.
The surface water is replaced by water from lower down.
Happens all the time.
In this case, as Ivan approaches the panhandle, incredibly strong Easterly winds create offshore flow over the northern part of the florida peninsula, dragging cooler water into the path of the storm.
Furthermore, the *surface* water near the coast there is already cooler than normal from Frances.
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(Just thought you should know that)-
rainstorm
I would think if a storm made landfall just east of the city, say over Breton Sound, on a nw trajectory, it would have a significant impact on the lake, piling water up on the south shore with no where for it to go but into the bowl.
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Betsy '65, Camille '69, Frederic '79, Elena '85, Georges '98, Isidore '02, Katrina '05, Isaac '12, Nate '17
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dennis1x1
the truth is out there.
they closely follow the ships model for intensity and make reference to their inability to accurately forecast intensity almost every advisory/discussion....this conspiracy paranoia is comical.
unlike most who post here the nhc realize that it takes more than time and a storm for intensification.....i know most here assume that if we have a cat 4 now and 3 days in the gulf then surely by landfall hed be a cat 7 or 8....but thats not the case..
they closely follow the ships model for intensity and make reference to their inability to accurately forecast intensity almost every advisory/discussion....this conspiracy paranoia is comical.
unlike most who post here the nhc realize that it takes more than time and a storm for intensification.....i know most here assume that if we have a cat 4 now and 3 days in the gulf then surely by landfall hed be a cat 7 or 8....but thats not the case..
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vbhoutex
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NHC discussion states: THE OUTER CONCENTRIC EYEWALL HAS ALSO DECREASED FROM 60
NMI DOWN TO 30 NMI DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...SO THE RECENT PRESSURE
FALL IS ABOUT ON TARGET FOR THE OUTER EYEWALL TO BECOME STABLE
AROUND 20 NMI. AT THAT POINT...RE-INTENSIFICATION TO CATEGORY 5
STRENGTH MAY BEGIN LIKE IT DID ABOUT THIS TIME YESTERDAY.
NMI DOWN TO 30 NMI DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...SO THE RECENT PRESSURE
FALL IS ABOUT ON TARGET FOR THE OUTER EYEWALL TO BECOME STABLE
AROUND 20 NMI. AT THAT POINT...RE-INTENSIFICATION TO CATEGORY 5
STRENGTH MAY BEGIN LIKE IT DID ABOUT THIS TIME YESTERDAY.
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Skywarn, C.E.R.T.
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