Ivan Advisories

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
FritzPaul
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 468
Age: 57
Joined: Sat Aug 28, 2004 7:09 pm
Location: Pensacola, FL
Contact:

#6581 Postby FritzPaul » Sun Sep 12, 2004 8:43 pm

It depends on the forward speed. The slower a hurricane approaches, then the more time for water to fill the lake, and if it tracks east of here, then the wind will switch around to the north and pile up the water on the south shore.

The direction has different implications for the metro area.

Like passing a difference of 50 miles west can mean the difference between the westbank being flooded as opposed to the eastbank.
0 likes   

Stormchaser16
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1013
Joined: Thu Aug 21, 2003 10:25 pm
Location: NW Jersey
Contact:

#6582 Postby Stormchaser16 » Sun Sep 12, 2004 8:44 pm

It looks like ivan is quickly losing its NW side though, i wonder if this may interfere with what would otherwise be possibly the oppurtunity for Ivan to strengthen to its strongest point yet?
0 likes   

dennis1x1

#6583 Postby dennis1x1 » Sun Sep 12, 2004 8:44 pm

well thats the official forecast... so i assume its possible.
0 likes   

marc21688
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 43
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:54 pm
Contact:

#6584 Postby marc21688 » Sun Sep 12, 2004 8:44 pm

120 mile eye? I can't even picture that.
0 likes   

User avatar
tronbunny
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1558
Joined: Wed Sep 01, 2004 1:18 am
Location: Central FL

#6585 Postby tronbunny » Sun Sep 12, 2004 8:44 pm

What is the historical record for sustained eye diameter for atlantic storms?
0 likes   

clueless newbie
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 137
Joined: Mon Sep 08, 2003 9:11 pm

#6586 Postby clueless newbie » Sun Sep 12, 2004 8:45 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
marc21688 wrote:LOL that would be the biggest eye in history then..


There was a typhoon a couple of years ago that was annular...and had an eye almost 120 miles in diameter. It was HUUUGE.

Any pictures?
0 likes   

User avatar
skysummit
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5305
Age: 49
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 11:09 pm
Location: Ponchatoula, LA
Contact:

#6587 Postby skysummit » Sun Sep 12, 2004 8:46 pm

That northeast portion would probably be taken over by the CDO getting colder as the new eyewall contracted. I don't believe Ivan is going to give up this easily.
0 likes   

calidoug
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 480
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 3:13 pm

#6588 Postby calidoug » Sun Sep 12, 2004 8:46 pm

Actually, there's a third cause of upwelling, which is most likely relevant in this case, on the current NHC track.

Offshore wind.

The surface water is replaced by water from lower down.

Happens all the time.

In this case, as Ivan approaches the panhandle, incredibly strong Easterly winds create offshore flow over the northern part of the florida peninsula, dragging cooler water into the path of the storm.

Furthermore, the *surface* water near the coast there is already cooler than normal from Frances.
0 likes   

User avatar
x-y-no
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8359
Age: 65
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2004 12:14 pm
Location: Fort Lauderdale, FL

#6589 Postby x-y-no » Sun Sep 12, 2004 8:46 pm

marc21688 wrote:120 mile eye? I can't even picture that.


No ... 40NM is 46 miles. --- oops, sorry, didn't see the post you were replying to.

Sorry 'bout that.

Frances had a 50NM eye for a while.
0 likes   

User avatar
zoeyann
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 610
Joined: Thu Aug 21, 2003 9:27 am
Location: Houma, Louisiana
Contact:

#6590 Postby zoeyann » Sun Sep 12, 2004 8:46 pm

The Saints game was terrible, and the traffic coming back was even worse. I just got back to Houma and haven't heard to much but from what I'm reading some things have changed while I was away. So I guess what I'm asking to know is What did I miss? Is it coming this way?
0 likes   

User avatar
abajan
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4230
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 5:10 am
Location: Barbados

#6591 Postby abajan » Sun Sep 12, 2004 8:47 pm

Innotech wrote:Ivan goes wherever the bloody hell he wants to.


My thoughts exactly.

BTW Innotech, there's a construction company here in Barbados called Innotech. :) (Just thought you should know that)
0 likes   

rainstorm

#6592 Postby rainstorm » Sun Sep 12, 2004 8:47 pm

if they are saying no shear in the gom, then that means they see the trough or weakness, that was supposed to cause the shear lifting out. that means to me, a more west track
0 likes   

Guest

#6593 Postby Guest » Sun Sep 12, 2004 8:48 pm

Yes it is possible, seen it happen many a time.
0 likes   

User avatar
Ixolib
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2741
Age: 68
Joined: Sun Aug 08, 2004 8:55 pm
Location: Biloxi, MS

#6594 Postby Ixolib » Sun Sep 12, 2004 8:48 pm

I would think if a storm made landfall just east of the city, say over Breton Sound, on a nw trajectory, it would have a significant impact on the lake, piling water up on the south shore with no where for it to go but into the bowl.
0 likes   
Betsy '65, Camille '69, Frederic '79, Elena '85, Georges '98, Isidore '02, Katrina '05, Isaac '12, Nate '17

marc21688
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 43
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:54 pm
Contact:

#6595 Postby marc21688 » Sun Sep 12, 2004 8:49 pm

I was talking about what air force said, sorry should have elaborated

There was a typhoon a couple of years ago that was annular...and had an eye almost 120 miles in diameter. It was HUUUGE.[/quote]
0 likes   

User avatar
canegrl04
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2486
Joined: Thu Aug 26, 2004 5:37 pm
Location: Texas

#6596 Postby canegrl04 » Sun Sep 12, 2004 8:49 pm

Joe Bastardi was just on Fox news and he said expect ivan to make landfall in Central Gulf coast with winds from 125mph to 150mph
0 likes   

dennis1x1

#6597 Postby dennis1x1 » Sun Sep 12, 2004 8:49 pm

the truth is out there.

they closely follow the ships model for intensity and make reference to their inability to accurately forecast intensity almost every advisory/discussion....this conspiracy paranoia is comical.

unlike most who post here the nhc realize that it takes more than time and a storm for intensification.....i know most here assume that if we have a cat 4 now and 3 days in the gulf then surely by landfall hed be a cat 7 or 8....but thats not the case..
0 likes   

User avatar
vbhoutex
Storm2k Executive
Storm2k Executive
Posts: 29112
Age: 73
Joined: Wed Oct 09, 2002 11:31 pm
Location: Cypress, TX
Contact:

#6598 Postby vbhoutex » Sun Sep 12, 2004 8:49 pm

NHC discussion states: THE OUTER CONCENTRIC EYEWALL HAS ALSO DECREASED FROM 60
NMI DOWN TO 30 NMI DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...SO THE RECENT PRESSURE
FALL IS ABOUT ON TARGET FOR THE OUTER EYEWALL TO BECOME STABLE
AROUND 20 NMI. AT THAT POINT...RE-INTENSIFICATION TO CATEGORY 5
STRENGTH MAY BEGIN LIKE IT DID ABOUT THIS TIME YESTERDAY.
0 likes   
Skywarn, C.E.R.T.
Please click below to donate to STORM2K to help with the expenses of keeping the site going:
Image

User avatar
HollynLA
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 836
Joined: Sat Aug 28, 2004 10:36 pm
Location: South Louisiana

#6599 Postby HollynLA » Sun Sep 12, 2004 8:50 pm

Hey Montegut, are you around the Point Aux Chenes area? Great fishing but hella flooding, and that's probably an understatement. We thought about building there but chose not to after TS Bill last year.
0 likes   

User avatar
MSRobi911
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1259
Age: 69
Joined: Sun Sep 14, 2003 1:55 pm
Location: Pascagoula, Misssissippi

#6600 Postby MSRobi911 » Sun Sep 12, 2004 8:50 pm

Somebody needs to have Mr. Gray call Carrie Duncan at Wlox in Biloxi and tell her because she said at 6:00pm she was only putting in 30% chance of rain on Tuesday and Wednesday because we shouldn't be bothered at all with Ivan....

Can you believe that?

Par for the course of WLOX
0 likes   


Return to “2004”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest