Post about latest model runs here

[cycloneye]

Ok let's TRY,TRY to post all the information about the model runs in this thread and by doing this it will clean space for other important messages in the forum.With the help of the members let's see if this works because it is not good to see many threads for each model posting every run about them.

[Guest]

Awesome! Lets get them models posted!

[Guest]

http://weather.sun-sentinel.com/tropica ... model.html

One of those models looks wacky at the end.

[cycloneye]

Ok good let' keep going this thread about the models and you can make comments about them.

[ameriwx2003]

Interesting solution with the ETAX... Since it is the ETA, its been thrown in the trash bin:):)


http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dtx/?page=xxdisplay

[cycloneye]

Interesting solution with the ETAX... Since it is the ETA, its been thrown in the trash bin:):)


http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dtx/?page=xxdisplay

Agree about eta not being a good one.

[ameriwx2003]

Yes.. thank God.. its the ETA showing that solution and not some other models.. of note the 18 GFS today did a right turn with the track right before landfall but it did the same thing yesterday as well :)

[cycloneye]

http://weather.net-waves.com/model.php

The 18z GFDL takes Ivan to the Pensacola,Fort Walton area.

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

  HURRICANE IVAN       (AL092004) ON 20040913  0000 UTC

          ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS...   ...36 HRS...
          040913  0000   040913  1200   040914  0000   040914  1200

           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    19.5N  82.8W   20.9N  84.0W   22.6N  85.0W   24.4N  85.8W
  BAMM    19.5N  82.8W   20.9N  84.5W   22.2N  85.8W   23.5N  86.8W
  A98E    19.5N  82.8W   20.5N  84.1W   21.9N  85.0W   23.6N  85.7W
  LBAR    19.5N  82.8W   20.7N  84.2W   22.2N  85.7W   24.0N  86.7W
  SHIP       140KTS         134KTS         129KTS         127KTS
  DSHP       140KTS         134KTS         129KTS         127KTS

          ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS...   ..120 HRS...
          040915  0000   040916  0000   040917  0000   040918  0000

           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    26.4N  86.6W   30.1N  87.4W   33.1N  84.3W   36.2N  80.5W
  BAMM    24.8N  87.7W   27.3N  88.1W   29.5N  83.5W   33.5N  78.2W
  A98E    25.4N  86.3W   28.7N  86.8W   30.7N  84.6W   33.5N  73.7W
  LBAR    26.0N  87.4W   29.8N  87.1W   32.7N  84.3W   34.3N  80.1W
  SHIP       123KTS         112KTS          93KTS          68KTS
  DSHP       123KTS         112KTS          41KTS          28KTS

               ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
  LATCUR =  19.5N LONCUR =  82.8W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR =   8KT
  LATM12 =  18.8N LONM12 =  81.2W DIRM12 = 294DEG SPDM12 =   9KT
  LATM24 =  18.2N LONM24 =  79.6W
  WNDCUR =  140KT RMAXWD =   15NM WNDM12 =  135KT
  CENPRS =  914MB OUTPRS = 1007MB OUTRAD =  200NM SDEPTH =   D
  RD34NE =  175NM RD34SE =  150NM RD34SW =  125NM RD34NW = 150NM


[LCfromFL]

Ok...I give....what the heck is up with the BAMM? I'm used to seeing the A98 look like it's on crack - but the BAMM is usually rather well behaved (at least generally going along with the other models).

[Brent]

Ok...I give....what the heck is up with the BAMM? I'm used to seeing the A98 look like it's on crack - but the BAMM is usually rather well behaved (at least generally going along with the other models).

Sharp right turn. All show it, but most later. It's an interesting scenario and not that far-fetched IMO.

[LCfromFL]

Well Brent - that's not at all what I'm wanting to hear/see. I'm supposed to get on an airplane at 6 am tomorrow (Monday) and fly to Pittsburgh. I'm in a quandry - stay? or go? My family is here - NW of JAX. So if I go, I may have dto turn around and come home right away....yet if I stay, Ivan is almost sure to head due west and hit Mexico (and I'll look silly for 'crying wolf...er...hurricane).

[Guest]

I hope it doesn't come here. Our rivers can't hold anymore.

[Brent]

Well Brent - that's not at all what I'm wanting to hear/see. I'm supposed to get on an airplane at 6 am tomorrow (Monday) and fly to Pittsburgh. I'm in a quandry - stay? or go? My family is here - NW of JAX. So if I go, I may have dto turn around and come home right away....yet if I stay, Ivan is almost sure to head due west and hit Mexico (and I'll look silly for 'crying wolf...er...hurricane).

LOL, isn't that the way it always goes? Everytime we have a snow threat here everyone freaks out and then nothing will happen. It only snows when it catches us off-guard.

[Guest]

It looks scary for the Carolina's (flooding&Tornado's) http://www.midatlanticwx.com/modelmap.htm

[cycloneye]

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/model_for ... bal_e.html

Here is the canadian model at 00z.

[ixl]

The 0z GFS is significantly west of the 18z... now that the NHC is east of basically every model, maybe they will shift the track west.

[chakalakasp]

Well, the Canadians certainly have a dismal look on things:

[PurdueWx80]

00Z NOGAPS consistent w/ New Orleans hit!

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/WXM ... .namer.gif

[dennis1x1]

ukmet comes close to new orleans now

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html