From the Jeanne 11AM discussion

[donsutherland1]

Early this morning, Tropical Storm Jeanne passed through 20.8N 72.5W. Over the past 6 hours, Jeanne has been heading north-northwest at 337.5°.

This trend, if sustained, for a storm that has drifted erratically over the past day, would represent a significant but not unexpected shift from its earlier west-northwest movement. The turn more to the north is evident both in with regard to 6-hour movements and 12-hour movements from about 6z on.

Earlier, one saw the erratic movement. Now, a trend appears to have emerged.

6-Hour Track:
9/18 0z: 360°
9/18 03z: 270°
9/18 06z: 293°
9/18 09z: 304°
9/18 12z: 338°

12-Hour Track:
9/18 0z: 285°
9/18 03z: 311°
9/18 06z: 287°
9/18 09z: 298°
9/18 12z: 319°

Overall, I believe Jeanne will continue a turn more to the north today and possible somewhat east of north tonight based on some of the CIMSS steering wind analyses.

Ideas from Last Night:

20.6N 72.5W; Actual: 20.8N 72.5W
21.8N 73.5W

Finally, the latest computer guidance continues to direct Jeanne back toward the south and west after an attempt at recurvature. The GFDL is an exception.

By late Wednesday or Thursday, using the ECMWF to sort through a very complex situation, Jeanne should turn to the Southwest and then west. Assuming that this guidance holds up, Jeanne should be trapped from escaping harmlessly out to sea and should be reeled back toward the coast and a possible Florida landfall.

Therefore, I still have no changes in my longer-term thinking with regard to Jeanne.

• Best prospect is an eventual track across Florida into the Gulf of Mexico.
• Moderate possibility is a track to landfall from Georgia to North Carolina
• Lowest possibility is a track out to sea without a U.S. landfall

[cape_escape]

Well, one thing I am sure of is that this is the first weekend we have had here along the SW coast, for 6 weeks, where we have sunshine, nice weather, and no immenet threat of an approaching hurricane! I really want to go enjoy what's left of our beaches while I can!

[x-y-no]

I'm afraid this one totally overwhelms my limited skill level. :-/

[donsutherland1]

As of 8 pm, Tropical Storm Jeanne was centered at 22.2N 72.0W. Earlier in the day, she had come as far west as 74.0W (2 pm). Since then, she has moved slowly to the east and north (incorporates new center that formed).

For the time being, she poses no threat to the mainland USA. However, in the longer-term, I have no changes in my thinking:

1) Yet another run of the ECMWF shows her becoming trapped by high pressure and turned back to the U.S.
2) The latest run of the computer models also shows her turned back.

In spite of her erratic movement, she has come reasonably close to some of the outlined positions.

Ideas from Friday Night:

20.6N 72.5W; Actual: 20.8N 72.5W
21.8N 73.5W; Actual: 21.3N 73.5W

For now, as she moves farther away from the U.S., I have no additional outlined positions given the shifting nature of her track. Suffice it to say, I believe she probably won't get farther to the east than let's say 68°W to 70°W and farther north than 25°N to 28°N before she turns back toward the United States.

The story concerning Jeanne also appears that it will be a long-running saga. Jeanne could be floating toward the United States by late next week. Hopefully, by early next week, some kind of idea as to her long-range track will have become more certain.

[donsutherland1]

As noted earlier in this thread, I had stated the following of Jeanne:

I believe she probably won't get farther to the east than let's say 68°W to 70°W and farther north than 25°N to 28°N before she turns back toward the United States.

After reaching 27.6°N yesterday at 9z, she started heading more to the south. At last word, she was centered at 26.3°N 68.5°W. I believe that Jeanne will likely beginning returning more to the west sometime today.

As for my long-term thinking, that has not changed. I believe the model guidance is now trending back in that direction. If so, the recurvature out-to-sea idea will disappear and a landfall across Florida rather than the Southeast (from GA to NC) will grow increasingly more likely.

[cape_escape]

26.3 that's about at my Latitude, although, I'm on the west coast....Stay away Jeanne!

[donsutherland1]

After having reached reaching 68.5°W late this morning, Jeanne has again begun coming back to the west. At 5 pm, she was centered at 26.1°N 69.0°W.

In terms of model trends, Mike Watkins has posted on their westward trend. That informative post can be found at:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=46755

[donsutherland1]

The latest batch of computer guidance keeps the westward trend going. A model consensus appears to have developed for a Florida landfall:

[donsutherland1]

Consistent with my thinking all along, things continue to point toward a Florida landfall for Hurricane Jeanne.

At 5 pm, Hurricane Jeanne was centered at 25.9N 70.3W and had been heading generally west-northwest over the past 12 hours (293° from 25.6N 69.5W to 25.9N 70.3W).

As high pressure begins moving offshore over the next 12-24 hours, I believe Jeanne will take on an increasingly west track and possibly a tad to the south, as well.

The following is an animation of the European Model, which was spectacular in calling the timing of Jeanne's turn back to the west from 4 days out:



A general west track should be sustained until Jeanne nears landfall or possibly just after she makes landfall (I believe that she will be heading between west-northwest and northwest upon landfall). Overall, I believe Jeanne could get as far west as 81.5W to 84.5W depending on her forward speed and the rate at which the high pressure moves farther offshore.

Early on, I believe Ivan will likely take the following track and this idea is quite close to the NHC track though increasingly south of it toward the end of the period:

25.8N 72.5W
25.8N 73.5W
25.7N 75.0W
26.0N 77.5W
27.0N 80.0W

At this time, such a track has the support of a number of the computer models, including the NOGAPS, GFS, and UKMET.

I also believe that Jeanne will make landfall as a Category 2 hurricane with some chance at making landfall as a Category 3 strength. In 48 hours, the SHIPS Model brings Jeanne's maximum winds up to 120 mph. After 72 hours, it eases the winds to 113 mph.

If Jeanne were to make landfall as a Category 3 storm, 2004 would become the first year since 1955 in which 3 major hurricanes made landfall. It would also become the first year since 1950 in which two major hurricanes made landfall at Florida (Ivan came ashore at Gulf Shores, AL and registered as a "hit" but not landfall at Florida).