Consistent with my thinking all along, things continue to point toward a Florida landfall for Hurricane Jeanne.
At 5 pm, Hurricane Jeanne was centered at 25.9N 70.3W and had been heading generally west-northwest over the past 12 hours (293° from 25.6N 69.5W to 25.9N 70.3W).
As high pressure begins moving offshore over the next 12-24 hours, I believe Jeanne will take on an increasingly west track and possibly a tad to the south, as well.
The following is an animation of the European Model, which was spectacular in calling the timing of Jeanne's turn back to the west from 4 days out:
A general west track should be sustained until Jeanne nears landfall or possibly just after she makes landfall (I believe that she will be heading between west-northwest and northwest upon landfall). Overall, I believe Jeanne could get as far west as 81.5W to 84.5W depending on her forward speed and the rate at which the high pressure moves farther offshore.
Early on, I believe Ivan will likely take the following track and this idea is quite close to the NHC track though increasingly south of it toward the end of the period:
25.8N 72.5W
25.8N 73.5W
25.7N 75.0W
26.0N 77.5W
27.0N 80.0W
At this time, such a track has the support of a number of the computer models, including the NOGAPS, GFS, and UKMET.
I also believe that Jeanne will make landfall as a Category 2 hurricane with some chance at making landfall as a Category 3 strength. In 48 hours, the SHIPS Model brings Jeanne's maximum winds up to 120 mph. After 72 hours, it eases the winds to 113 mph.
If Jeanne were to make landfall as a Category 3 storm, 2004 would become the first year since 1955 in which 3 major hurricanes made landfall. It would also become the first year since 1950 in which two major hurricanes made landfall at Florida (Ivan came ashore at Gulf Shores, AL and registered as a "hit" but not landfall at Florida).
