Nogaps best model for Jeanne

[Vortex]

Without question the 18z GFDL is a bad run. Looking synoptically the Nogaps without question has the best handle on Jeanne currently and forecasted. The WV imagery clearly depicts a very strong ridge to the north. If anything we may see wobbles wsw this evening. Synoptically the set-up until landfall is very straight-forward. So, while the GFDL run would be great news the fact is it's not going to happen. I expect the 00z run will likely correct itself. I think it's more and more likely that initial landfall will be between Fort Lauderdale and Jupiter. The faster the movement the more likely landfall is near Fort lauderdale.

[Blown Away]

The NHC has said all along the speed would increase.
Don't you think they would have factored that in on
the models. I just assumed they did based on the
"NHC discussion" info.

[caneman]

Without question the 18z GFDL is a bad run. Looking synoptically the Nogaps without question has the best handle on Jeanne currently and forecasted. The WV imagery clearly depicts a very strong ridge to the north. If anything we may see wobbles wsw this evening. Synoptically the set-up until landfall is very straight-forward. So, while the GFDL run would be great news the fact is it's not going to happen. I expect the 00z run will likely correct itself. I think it's more and more likely that initial landfall will be between Fort Lauderdale and Jupiter. The faster the movement the more likely landfall is near Fort lauderdale.

I agree and for the sake of us Floridians that NHC doesn't ride the GFDL in spite of all evidence to the contrary.

[tronbunny]

The NHC has said all along the speed would increase.
Don't you think they would have factored that in on
the models. I just assumed they did based on the
"NHC discussion" info.

The models are mostly independent of the NHC analysis.
Some one plugs in the synoptics at the moment (to the model grids), not the predicted conditions.

[djti]

nogaps is way far west.......probably a go between with the gfdl and ukmet is the best bet.....if the nogaps is best are you saying the nhc are just blind idiots?

[MWatkins]

nogaps is way far west.......probably a go between with the gfdl and ukmet is the best bet.....if the nogaps is best are you saying the nhc are just blind idiots?

I don't think he is. Remember the NHC average error at 48 hours is well within the spread between the NOGAPS model and the official forecast track.

MW