Latest Recon Analysis...More Bad News

[MWatkins]

First of all...the flight crew is reporting a 6 to 7 degree C temp difference between the eye and the environment...a clear sign of strengthening.

URNT12 KNHC 250420
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 25/0420Z
B. 26 DEG 26 MIN N
75 DEG 15 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2742 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 045 DEG 100 KT
G. 315 DEG 23 NM
H. 962 MB
I. 10 C/ 3075 M
J. 16 C/ 3078 M
K. 10 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C40
N. 12345/7
O. 0.1/1 NM
P. AF968 1911A JEANNE OB 13
MAX FL WIND 110 KT SW QUAD 0233Z. SMALL GAP IN EYEWALL TO SE.
MAX FL TEMP 17 C AT 317 DEG / 013 NM.

Also...the movement has been yet again due west with no disernable N movement.

12:20 AM 26.4N 75.3W
10:39 PM 26.4N 74.9W

A forward speed around 12 knots. Still.

Pressure is down 3 MB from the previous fix too.

MW

[yoda]

Yes... but two things:

Eyewall is open a bit to the SE

and they took the winds at 700 MB.... (is there a difference from the other one which was at 850?)

[Sanibel]

105mph minimum now.

Entering intensification phase prior to Gulf Stream.

Favors higher ranges...

[PurdueWx80]

Yes... but two things:

Eyewall is open a bit to the SE

and they took the winds at 700 MB.... (is there a difference from the other one which was at 850?)

They used the old wind report from the 850 mb track, so there are no changes there. Pressure drop would indicate strengthening though.

[yoda]

Shear is almost non-existent from CSMISS....

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

except for that 20kt shear to its SW.. but that is over Cuba mostly...

[NJSnowFreak]

I don't think they took a new wind measurement...

don't think the slight eyewall opening means much...

I'm just worried that it might hit south florida, an area with a LARGE Jewish population...a population that unfortunately won't be paying much attention to this hurricane during their holiday...

[KeyLargoDave]

MW, thanks for posting the vortex data.

If that's 110k flight-level, 100k surface, = 115 mph -- isn't that much higher than 11 p.m. advisory?

[LAwxrgal]

ugh

Not good.

[PurdueWx80]

MW, thanks for posting the vortex data.

If that's 110k flight-level, 100k surface, = 115 mph -- isn't that much higher than 11 p.m. advisory?

As Derek pointed out to me earlier, 110 kt flight levels winds at 850 mb get an 80% reduction, so it is very close to what they have in the 11 p.m. advisory.

[THead]

Isn't it kind of strange to have the highest winds in the SW quadrant?

[jlauderdal]

Shear is almost non-existent from CSMISS....

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

except for that 20kt shear to its SW.. but that is over Cuba mostly...

wait...arent you the same yoda that said that shear would hold the system down and also the ssts werent warm enough to allow strenghning. that was about 6 am friday after floydbuster posted his forecast. i can dig out the post if need be.

[SouthernWx]

You beat me to the punch Mike...I just saw this..

It is significant that the recon crew went in this time at 700 mb (10,000'). My guess is they had a very rough ride on the first pass at 850 (5000'), and decided on a less risky approach.

The eye temp at 700 mb has increased from 15° to 17°c since 5 p.m....the spread between eye temp and eyewall temp has increased from 5° to 7° -- both signs the hurricane is strengthening (along with the pressure falling from 964 to 962 mb in less than 2 hrs).

Flight level winds in the NW eyewall were 115 mph (100 kt) the last pass....which tells me sustained surface winds are likely at least 105 mph...and probably more (higher winds are likely in the NE eyewall...and possibly in the SW eyewall as well, based on past recon supplementary vortex reports).

Jeanne is getting close to major hurricane status...

[PurdueWx80]

Isn't it kind of strange to have the highest winds in the SW quadrant?

Not at all if that's where the most intense convection is located. This is sort of a myth that has held on for some reason. During strengthening phases, winds can be maxed in any quadrant, particuarly where the most vigorous convection lies.

[cape_escape]

Ohhhh nooo, not more bad news in Florida....make it stop!

[yoda]

Shear is almost non-existent from CSMISS....

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

except for that 20kt shear to its SW.. but that is over Cuba mostly...

wait...arent you the same yoda that said that shear would hold the system down and also the ssts werent warm enough to allow strenghning. that was about 6 am friday after floydbuster posted his forecast. i can dig out the post if need be.

Nope.. different Yoda that was...

Yes that was me...

Well the SSTs are still only about 84-85 degrees... but changed the shear forecast has... we will see. Wrong the Jedi Master can be once in a while, can't he?

[yoda]

You beat me to the punch Mike...I just saw this..

It is significant that the recon crew went in this time at 700 mb (10,000'). My guess is they had a very rough ride on the first pass at 850 (5000'), and decided on a less risky approach.

The eye temp at 700 mb has increased from 15° to 17°c since 5 p.m....the spread between eye temp and eyewall temp has increased from 5° to 7° -- both signs the hurricane is strengthening (along with the pressure falling from 964 to 962 mb in less than 2 hrs).

Flight level winds in the NW eyewall were 115 mph (100 kt) the last pass....which tells me sustained surface winds are likely at least 105 mph...and probably more (higher winds are likely in the NE eyewall...and possibly in the SW eyewall as well, based on past recon supplementary vortex reports).

Jeanne is getting close to major hurricane status...

From an earlier Vortex..

URNT12 KNHC 250239
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 25/0239Z
B. 26 DEG 24 MIN N
74 DEG 51 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1088 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 324 DEG 110 KT
G. 230 DEG 19 NM
H. 964 MB
I. 18 C/ 1533 M
J. 20 C/ 1544 M
K. 20 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C45
N. 12345/8
O. 0.1/1 NM
P. AF968 1911A JEANNE OB 08
MAX FL WIND 110 KT SW QUAD 0233Z.
MDT TURBC IN EYEWALL.

[Sanibel]

I think we can take the 700MB reference as correct.

Extrapolate a weak side SW reading of 110 knots with dropping pressure and I think 110mph or more is reasonable. Mind you this isn't a Frances. It's a more direct synoptic along the underside of a High. Ivan being a recent example. These drops have much more significance...

If another drop follows shift to higher intensity...

[cape_escape]

I think we can take the 700MB reference as correct.

Extrapolate a weak side SW reading of 110 knots with dropping pressure and I think 110mph or more is reasonable. Mind you this isn't a Frances. It's a more direct synoptic along the underside of a High. Ivan being a recent example. These drops have much more significance...

If another drop follows shift to higher intensity...

Hi again Sanibel! What do you think on Jeannes current trek, we should see over this way?

[yoda]

SST's show about 28 degrees Celsius in area...

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/d ... 7casst.png

**PLEASE NOTE THIS IS FROM SEPT. 23**

If anyone has a new one... please post it.

[SouthernWx]

The 110 kt flight level wind at 0239z was at 850 mb....but that last vortex fix (0420z) was at 700 mb, and on the inbound leg, max flight level winds were 100 kt (NW eyewall) at 10,000 feet....so we now have at least a 90 kt hurricane.