In Recurve Now

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Sanibel
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In Recurve Now

#1 Postby Sanibel » Sat Sep 25, 2004 1:12 pm

The shortest get-to-the-point current analysis shows Jeanne entering the expected preshore curve now. She is approximately 280* now, gradually entering the NHC curve - maybe a notch south - but basically the same.

A Gulf entry is out. I was trying to tell people this last night when Jeanne's outer band showed a flat-edge...


Canaveral should take the shoulder impact of the north quadrant as I was predicting yesterday...
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#2 Postby djtexillini » Sat Sep 25, 2004 1:14 pm

As a previous poster noted and I concur...based on radar this is not happening.
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#3 Postby logybogy » Sat Sep 25, 2004 1:16 pm

Sanibel, look at radar and tell me where you see 280 motion.

It's not there.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... kamx.shtml
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#4 Postby PurdueWx80 » Sat Sep 25, 2004 1:17 pm

LOL..here we go again with the flat edge. In case you haven't noticed it is gone now. Other than the fact that the ridge west of the storm is holding strong (and that there is still no trough pulling on the storm), models are coming closer to the Gulf this morning. Even the GFS gets the storm close to Tampa and in fact to the west coast.

Are you so certain that this is the "expected curve" and not a short term wobble? If so, what is your basis?
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Sanibel
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#5 Postby Sanibel » Sat Sep 25, 2004 1:18 pm

The eye was below Okeechobee this morning. Now it is above it.


This is the pull-up I was calling last night. Watch the curve...


Purdue: Looks to be lifting to me. Are you arguing theory in the face of this?
Last edited by Sanibel on Sat Sep 25, 2004 1:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#6 Postby KeyLargoDave » Sat Sep 25, 2004 1:21 pm

Too soon to call for sure. Yes, a bit of northward motion, but even NHC is not saying it's definitely starting recurvature.

Also, NWS and NHC are issuing strong messages to media -- Mayfield making phone calls to TV stations -- saying palm beach northward must take this very seriously. Let's be careful about anyone letter their guard down because now it's "turning north."
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#7 Postby Scorpion » Sat Sep 25, 2004 1:21 pm

Looks like it was a jog. Been heading west the last few frames.
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Sanibel
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#8 Postby Sanibel » Sat Sep 25, 2004 1:23 pm

Recurve need not be a 90* turn. I believe this storm is in recurve...


I see the radar. I admit it looks to be nearly west. If I am right this will wobble WNW again soon...
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#9 Postby Guest » Sat Sep 25, 2004 1:26 pm

Sanibel wrote:Recurve need not be a 90* turn. I believe this storm is in recurve...

& this means what..Somebody is still going to get a major hurricane probably the same area that is still picking up the garbage that Frances left behind.
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Anonymous

#10 Postby Anonymous » Sat Sep 25, 2004 1:37 pm

what exactly is a recurve? Would that mean something made a curve stopped and then re-curved again? Like if I forgot to get the pop-tarts at the Kash-n-Karry and a few isles later remembered so I re-curved back to the ceral isle to get the pop tarts?
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#11 Postby charleston_hugo_veteran » Sat Sep 25, 2004 1:39 pm

MPH101 wrote:what exactly is a recurve? Would that mean something made a curve stopped and then re-curved again? Like if I forgot to get the pop-tarts at the Kash-n-Karry and a few isles later remembered so I re-curved back to the ceral isle to get the pop tarts?


:lol: :lol:
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#12 Postby PurdueWx80 » Sat Sep 25, 2004 1:39 pm

LOL MPH...I needed that one to settle me down. :)
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#13 Postby charleston_hugo_veteran » Sat Sep 25, 2004 1:41 pm

PurdueWx80 wrote:LOL MPH...I needed that one to settle me down. :)


:D :D
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DoctorHurricane2003

#14 Postby DoctorHurricane2003 » Sat Sep 25, 2004 1:42 pm

Also, the eye contracted quite a bit....not necessarily towards the center of the original size of the eye...but just north of it. This could lead to the illusion of a northward wobble.
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#15 Postby jeffinsprings » Sat Sep 25, 2004 1:43 pm

First post, and I'm barely even a novice here but the last two positions seem to indicate more than a wobble to me. After remaining at 26.5N since the day started, the last two positions have been 26.6 and then 26.8. I am in Northern Broward County and am really hoping this is indeed a trend and not a wobble.
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#16 Postby fci » Sat Sep 25, 2004 1:48 pm

jeffinsprings wrote:First post, and I'm barely even a novice here but the last two positions seem to indicate more than a wobble to me. After remaining at 26.5N since the day started, the last two positions have been 26.6 and then 26.8. I am in Northern Broward County and am really hoping this is indeed a trend and not a wobble.


I'm in Central Palm Beach county and welcome the slightly North of due West motion.
Living at 26.6, I am thrilled to see it reach up to 27.
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#17 Postby CharleySurvivor » Sat Sep 25, 2004 1:52 pm

LOL MPH... you silly! LOL... I needed this laugh! We all need this humour to calm our nerves right now.
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#18 Postby Sanibel » Sat Sep 25, 2004 1:53 pm

One of the true pleasures of internet hurricane watching is taking on insider site egos who pride themselves by their meteorological knowledge and ridicule your observations that then verify right in front of their noses...

This storm is in recurve as I cited last evening and for the reasons I described Thank you...
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#19 Postby PurdueWx80 » Sat Sep 25, 2004 1:58 pm

Touche Sanibel!!! Stubbornly believing something that is clearly not true won't make a forecast turn out the way you want it to. Last night you mentioned that a trough would cause Jeanne to turn - well, I respect that it was your opinion, but people coming here for knowledge need to know that this is incorrect. There is still no trough affecting the storm, and the flat edge you mentioned last night was temporary. There are no flat edges now. We are now merely seeing wobbles based on eyewall reorganization and the beta effect taking over, as Derek mentioned in his new forecast.
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#20 Postby Wnghs2007 » Sat Sep 25, 2004 2:05 pm

Sanibel wrote:One of the true pleasures of internet hurricane watching is taking on insider site egos who pride themselves by their meteorological knowledge and ridicule your observations that then verify right in front of their noses...

This storm is in recurve as I cited last evening and for the reasons I described Thank you...



Due West 2Pm to 3 PM.

2 Pm 27.0 N 77.9 W
3 Pm 27.0 N 78.4 W
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