In Recurve Now

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10385
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

In Recurve Now

#1 Postby Sanibel » Sat Sep 25, 2004 1:12 pm

The shortest get-to-the-point current analysis shows Jeanne entering the expected preshore curve now. She is approximately 280* now, gradually entering the NHC curve - maybe a notch south - but basically the same.

A Gulf entry is out. I was trying to tell people this last night when Jeanne's outer band showed a flat-edge...


Canaveral should take the shoulder impact of the north quadrant as I was predicting yesterday...
0 likes   
Top
djtexillini
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 35
Joined: Fri Sep 24, 2004 6:34 pm

#2 Postby djtexillini » Sat Sep 25, 2004 1:14 pm

As a previous poster noted and I concur...based on radar this is not happening.
0 likes   
Top
logybogy

#3 Postby logybogy » Sat Sep 25, 2004 1:16 pm

Sanibel, look at radar and tell me where you see 280 motion.

It's not there.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... kamx.shtml
0 likes   
Top
PurdueWx80
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 2720
Joined: Fri Aug 13, 2004 8:33 pm
Location: Madison, WI
Contact:
Contact PurdueWx80

#4 Postby PurdueWx80 » Sat Sep 25, 2004 1:17 pm

LOL..here we go again with the flat edge. In case you haven't noticed it is gone now. Other than the fact that the ridge west of the storm is holding strong (and that there is still no trough pulling on the storm), models are coming closer to the Gulf this morning. Even the GFS gets the storm close to Tampa and in fact to the west coast.

Are you so certain that this is the "expected curve" and not a short term wobble? If so, what is your basis?
0 likes   
Top
Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10385
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

#5 Postby Sanibel » Sat Sep 25, 2004 1:18 pm

The eye was below Okeechobee this morning. Now it is above it.


This is the pull-up I was calling last night. Watch the curve...


Purdue: Looks to be lifting to me. Are you arguing theory in the face of this?
Last edited by Sanibel on Sat Sep 25, 2004 1:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
KeyLargoDave
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 423
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 4:03 pm
Location: 25 05' 80 26'
Contact:
Contact KeyLargoDave

#6 Postby KeyLargoDave » Sat Sep 25, 2004 1:21 pm

Too soon to call for sure. Yes, a bit of northward motion, but even NHC is not saying it's definitely starting recurvature.

Also, NWS and NHC are issuing strong messages to media -- Mayfield making phone calls to TV stations -- saying palm beach northward must take this very seriously. Let's be careful about anyone letter their guard down because now it's "turning north."
0 likes   
Top
Scorpion

#7 Postby Scorpion » Sat Sep 25, 2004 1:21 pm

Looks like it was a jog. Been heading west the last few frames.
0 likes   
Top
Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10385
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

#8 Postby Sanibel » Sat Sep 25, 2004 1:23 pm

Recurve need not be a 90* turn. I believe this storm is in recurve...


I see the radar. I admit it looks to be nearly west. If I am right this will wobble WNW again soon...
0 likes   
Top
Guest

#9 Postby Guest » Sat Sep 25, 2004 1:26 pm

Sanibel wrote:Recurve need not be a 90* turn. I believe this storm is in recurve...

& this means what..Somebody is still going to get a major hurricane probably the same area that is still picking up the garbage that Frances left behind.
0 likes   
Top
Anonymous

#10 Postby Anonymous » Sat Sep 25, 2004 1:37 pm

what exactly is a recurve? Would that mean something made a curve stopped and then re-curved again? Like if I forgot to get the pop-tarts at the Kash-n-Karry and a few isles later remembered so I re-curved back to the ceral isle to get the pop tarts?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
charleston_hugo_veteran
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1590
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 12:47 pm
Location: Charleston, S.C.

#11 Postby charleston_hugo_veteran » Sat Sep 25, 2004 1:39 pm

MPH101 wrote:what exactly is a recurve? Would that mean something made a curve stopped and then re-curved again? Like if I forgot to get the pop-tarts at the Kash-n-Karry and a few isles later remembered so I re-curved back to the ceral isle to get the pop tarts?


:lol: :lol:
0 likes   
Top
PurdueWx80
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 2720
Joined: Fri Aug 13, 2004 8:33 pm
Location: Madison, WI
Contact:
Contact PurdueWx80

#12 Postby PurdueWx80 » Sat Sep 25, 2004 1:39 pm

LOL MPH...I needed that one to settle me down. :)
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
charleston_hugo_veteran
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1590
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 12:47 pm
Location: Charleston, S.C.

#13 Postby charleston_hugo_veteran » Sat Sep 25, 2004 1:41 pm

PurdueWx80 wrote:LOL MPH...I needed that one to settle me down. :)


:D :D
0 likes   
Top
DoctorHurricane2003

#14 Postby DoctorHurricane2003 » Sat Sep 25, 2004 1:42 pm

Also, the eye contracted quite a bit....not necessarily towards the center of the original size of the eye...but just north of it. This could lead to the illusion of a northward wobble.
0 likes   
Top
jeffinsprings
Tropical Wave
Tropical Wave
Posts: 1
Joined: Sat Sep 25, 2004 12:32 pm

#15 Postby jeffinsprings » Sat Sep 25, 2004 1:43 pm

First post, and I'm barely even a novice here but the last two positions seem to indicate more than a wobble to me. After remaining at 26.5N since the day started, the last two positions have been 26.6 and then 26.8. I am in Northern Broward County and am really hoping this is indeed a trend and not a wobble.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
fci
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3324
Joined: Tue Sep 14, 2004 10:29 am
Location: Lake Worth, FL

#16 Postby fci » Sat Sep 25, 2004 1:48 pm

jeffinsprings wrote:First post, and I'm barely even a novice here but the last two positions seem to indicate more than a wobble to me. After remaining at 26.5N since the day started, the last two positions have been 26.6 and then 26.8. I am in Northern Broward County and am really hoping this is indeed a trend and not a wobble.


I'm in Central Palm Beach county and welcome the slightly North of due West motion.
Living at 26.6, I am thrilled to see it reach up to 27.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
CharleySurvivor
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 308
Joined: Thu Sep 09, 2004 3:38 pm
Location: Tampa, FL formerly Port Charlotte FL

#17 Postby CharleySurvivor » Sat Sep 25, 2004 1:52 pm

LOL MPH... you silly! LOL... I needed this laugh! We all need this humour to calm our nerves right now.
0 likes   
Top
Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10385
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

#18 Postby Sanibel » Sat Sep 25, 2004 1:53 pm

One of the true pleasures of internet hurricane watching is taking on insider site egos who pride themselves by their meteorological knowledge and ridicule your observations that then verify right in front of their noses...

This storm is in recurve as I cited last evening and for the reasons I described Thank you...
0 likes   
Top
PurdueWx80
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 2720
Joined: Fri Aug 13, 2004 8:33 pm
Location: Madison, WI
Contact:
Contact PurdueWx80

#19 Postby PurdueWx80 » Sat Sep 25, 2004 1:58 pm

Touche Sanibel!!! Stubbornly believing something that is clearly not true won't make a forecast turn out the way you want it to. Last night you mentioned that a trough would cause Jeanne to turn - well, I respect that it was your opinion, but people coming here for knowledge need to know that this is incorrect. There is still no trough affecting the storm, and the flat edge you mentioned last night was temporary. There are no flat edges now. We are now merely seeing wobbles based on eyewall reorganization and the beta effect taking over, as Derek mentioned in his new forecast.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Wnghs2007
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6836
Age: 36
Joined: Wed Mar 24, 2004 11:14 pm
Location: Gwinnett-Barrow Line; Georgia
Contact:
Contact Wnghs2007

#20 Postby Wnghs2007 » Sat Sep 25, 2004 2:05 pm

Sanibel wrote:One of the true pleasures of internet hurricane watching is taking on insider site egos who pride themselves by their meteorological knowledge and ridicule your observations that then verify right in front of their noses...

This storm is in recurve as I cited last evening and for the reasons I described Thank you...



Due West 2Pm to 3 PM.

2 Pm 27.0 N 77.9 W
3 Pm 27.0 N 78.4 W
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Team Ghost, Torgo and 40 guests