I wouldn't say Florida has been lucky....what has occurred there is horrible; but in all honesty...it could have been even worse.
As some of you know, I'm a hurricane historian. I've preached hurricane preparedness on the wx boards since 2000...and tried to warn Floridians in particular what was going to happen sooner or later. I haven't done it for my health or ego....but instead to try and save some lives. I'm a veteran Skywarn spotter, so trying to warn others about impending dangerous weather comes naturally.
Now I'm not saying this out of insensitivity....I have friends and relatives who've suffered greatly from this seasons hurricanes in Florida....but folks, if you are going to live in Florida....you had better brace yourselves.
Before 2004, the Florida peninsula had suffered the direct hit of ONE major hurricane during the past 38 years. During the same time period (1966-2003), only four (4) hurricanes of category 2 or higher intensity struck the peninsula (Gladys, David, Andrew, and Georges).
Compare that period of time to the 1900-1965 period....when the Florida peninsula was impacted by 31 cat-2 or higher hurricanes....19 of those major hurricanes with 115+ mph winds. Unfortunately, that is the historical/ climatological average....a landfalling cat-2 or higher hurricane once every two years, and a major landfalling hurricane on average once every 3-5 years.
During the 1846-1899 period, much of the Florida peninsula was very sparsely populated (Miami wasn't incorporated as a city until 1895).....and hurricane records are sketchy, yet 13 confirmed major hurricanes struck the peninsula...on average once every 4 years (13 in 54 yrs, and there were likely a couple that were missed due to striking between inhabited locations).
What Floridians have experienced since 1965....and to some extent, since the early 1950's was an unbelievably fortunate lull of intense hurricane activity. Unfortunately, that lull has apparently ended, and as I feared....the damage and shock among the population has been tremendous.
What I believe Logybogy meant...was as bad as it's been....it could have been even worse. Compare this season thusfar to the 1845-1950 era. In 1848, the Tampa Bay region was slammed by two major hurricanes only three weeks apart. In 1926 a large 150 mph monster hurricane wiped Miami from the map....followed only two years later by an even larger, more intense hurricane that tore a wide path from West Palm Beach to Orlando and Jacksonville...and took thousands of lives. Between 1944 and 1950, eight intense hurricanes struck the peninsula....in a seven year period.
If Charley had targeted Tampa Bay or Fort Myers....if Frances hadn't weakened and slammed into Fort Lauderdale or Palm Beach at 145 mph....if Jeanne had struck only 30 miles farther south, the misery, destruction, and loss of life we see tonight across Florida would have been multiplied a hundredfold.
Why am I telling you this? So you can prepare....because I'm very afraid (as are hurricane experts such as Dr Bill Gray and Dr Chris Landsea) that this is the beginning of a 20-30 year period of increased severe hurricane activity in Florida. So you can prepare yourself....financially, prepare yourself and loved ones to survive; and just as importantly...prepare yourself mentally for what next month, next season, and the hurricane seasons to come may bring.
Major landfalling hurricanes tend to strike in cycles. During the 1950's, most of the U.S landfalling hurricanes targeted the east coast from the Carolinas to New England. From 1961 to 1983, most targeted the Gulf Coast from Texas to the Florida panhandle. Until this season, most powerful hurricanes since 1984 have struck the Carolinas. It now appears the cycle has shifted back to Florida....as it was in the 1919-1950 period.
Just for the record....the September hurricanes have affected my area of Georgia also. Tonight a large tree lies on a neighbor's home of my father's in Newnan, Georgia (it barely missed dad's house). My great aunt here in Douglasville has a tarp on her roof....damaged by Ivan, and still awaiting roof repairs. Schools were closed across Georgia today...just as they were during Ivan and Frances. The flooding situation is getting worse...8.10" of rain has fallen at my home in September, and over 16.50" at my dad's home. Thousands are without power this evening....and hundreds of thousands lost power during Frances and Ivan. Homes are damaged all across the Peach state...people have died here...from flooding, wind, and tornadoes....so we know the stress, fear, and uncertainty they've caused Floridians (except it's far worse down there).
I'm keeping all Floridians in my prayers....and hoping the situation there will get much better very soon.
