Thoughts on Florida, remainder of season...

[Windspeed]

Obviously, the 2004 Atlantic Tropical Season is far from over. With Florida being the whipping boy over the past seven weeks, folks still have reason to be apprehensive. But I think things may be improving as the Cape Verde season is beginning to die down, and there is a shift in focus back on the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico for development.

Based on recent obs and remote sensing of upper oceanic heat content and tropical cyclone heat potential of the eastern Gulf of Mexico: if a strong tropical system were to develop in the western Caribbean or the southwestern Gulf of Mexico at this time and move into the eastern Gulf, the probability of it weakening substantially before landfall is very high. I believe one of the rare positives or "silver linings" (and I do mean RARE) that we can now consider from having so many strong hurricanes move over the state of Florida up to this point of the season is the significant upwelling and cooling that has occurred off the western, and east-central, and northern coasts of Florida. There are still concerns though.

The Gulf Stream in Florida Straits directly south of the penninsula and the Keys is still quite warm at the surface with decent oceanic heat content at upper depth; therefore, if a system tracked directly from the south or ssw, moving over central Cuba, it could potentially be stronger than if it moved into the central or eastern Gulf--especially the northeastern Gulf.

Also, though our focus on development is now shifting to the western Atlantic Basin, keep in mind that this is not just limited to the southwestern GOM and western Caribbean right now. RS of SSTs and UOHC in the eastern Caribbean and Antilles region still remains very condusive for strong systems. A tropical system with favorable upper-level conditions could become very strong if it tracked on a WNW path just to the north of the Greater Antilles (Puerto Rico, Hispanolia, Cuba) and turned into south Florida from the Southern Bahamas/Florida Straits. Fortunately, it seems the atmospheric environment is lacking over the eastern Caribbean for now though, which is GREAT NEWS! Climatologically speaking, the westerlies begin to work their way back south and effect the eastern Caribbean and the central Atlantic as we get deeper into October.

Yes, the season is certainly not over by any stretch of the imagination. However, at least the potential for a strong hurricane striking the immediate western or eastern Florida penninsula has decreased significantly with much cooler SSTs and OHC at this point in time. And this, in what I think would be a great majority opinion, is exactly what Florida folks thankfully need right now.

[cycloneye]

Agree 100% with your anaylisis.

[drudd1]

[donsutherland1]

Windspeed,

I very much hope that the SSTAs won't recover and no further tropical storms or hurricanes will hit Florida or elsewhere, for that matter.

Unfortunately, I expect that there will be additional tropical activity this season. Worse, I don't believe Florida is completely out of the woods just yet, even if the risk of major hurricanes has diminished given the SSTAs.

Although, a majority of seasons with similar readings in the global indices have seen no Florida hits from October 1 on, seasons that have seen the development of 6 or more major hurricanes or 3 major hurricanes make landfall have generally seen Florida hit by one additional storm from October 1 on. The lone season with both 3 major landfalling hurricanes and the development of 6 or more major hurricanes (1909) saw a Florida landfall after October 1.

As the global indices do not fully explain tropical seasons and some of what is not captured by such indices might well be behind the large number of major storms and landfalling major storms, I don't believe one can rule out the possiblity of another hit.

There are two situations of which Floridians should be particularly concerned:

• A tropical storm or hurricane that forms or passes through a latitude of 16.0N or less and 80.0W-83.0W while heading between West and North-Northwest. These have often hit Florida. Notable storms include: Hurricane #11 (1944), Hurricane #8 (1948), and Hurricane Isbell (1964).

Hurricane #11 (1944):


Hurricane #8 (1948):


Hurricane Isbell (1964):


• A tropical storm or hurricane that forms or passes through 18.0N-19.9N and 83.0W-85.0W with some easterly component to its track (not due east or east-northeast). While a number have missed Florida, a significant number have also hit Florida. Notable storms include: Hurricane #9 (1870) and Hurricane Irene (1999).

Hurricane #9 (1870):


Hurricane Irene (1999):


The former situation is, by far, the more dangerous one. A majority of storms that met such criteria ultimately hit Florida.