USA's winter 2004-05 Forecast IS OUT!

[wxguy25]

That’s right, you asked for it, and Its finally here! USA’s 2004-05 winter outlook IS OUT!!! Click on the link to read the complete discussion

http://www.storm2k.org/wxguy25.html

Also, I want to recognize and extend a special thanks to Chad for providing the webpage and space on the site for the article. Without it, I’m not sure I would have been able to get the outlook online.

ENJOY the article! Comments, questions and feedback are ALWAYS welcome. Or if you would like specific details for your location pertaining to temps, precip or snowfall, post it here and I will answer your question.

And for you folks interested in some answers regarding the complexities and abnormalities of the 2004 tropical season, the answers are in the 2004 Hurricane Season-to-date section. I know it’s a hot topic, and hopefully this sheds some light on it for those interested. As most of you know, and like many others here at S2k—I live in the I-4 corridor myself and I was directly affected by Charley, Frances and Jeanne. So this is a topic close to me from a personal standpoint also, and my encouragement to dig a bit deeper into the issue and include the findings in the winter outlook.

[yoda]

Excellent post and excellent work as usual. You explained everything well and made it easy for me to understand.

One question I have is you state this:

"If the QBO once again increases westerly (i.e. a secondary peak) a majority of the aforementioned winters would once again come back onto the table with respect to being analogs for this particular feature. It may also signal a much increased chance for a severe winter in the I-95 corridor of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast."

What are the chances of that happening?

In addition, you state in your forecast for DC to have 15-25 inches of snow. But wouldn't DC see above average snowfall due to a weak El Nino with the likelihood of a +PNA/-NAO composite?

[wxguy25]

Excellent post and excellent work as usual. You explained everything well and made it easy for me to understand.

One question I have is you state this:

"If the QBO once again increases westerly (i.e. a secondary peak) a majority of the aforementioned winters would once again come back onto the table with respect to being analogs for this particular feature. It may also signal a much increased chance for a severe winter in the I-95 corridor of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast."

What are the chances of that happening?

I think the QBO will reverse w/o increasing westerly again but I wanted to make note of that just incase for some reason the QBO does that. Go back through the QBO data and you will see what im talking about. the winters that were weak west (below +8.00 on the winter for the DEC-FEB period) w/ weak El nino conditions were some of the most severe.

As long as the QBO remains near neutral, it should not make a real big difference pattern wise.

In addition, you state in your forecast for DC to have 15-25 inches of snow. But wouldn't DC see above average snowfall due to a weak El Nino with the likelihood of a +PNA/-NAO composite?

Thanks. I went Conservative here. Perhaps too much so. The forecast goes 5-7" below the analog mean but I have my concerns as to why DC will not see extravagant totals. 1) Pattern favors Inland running systems (or alot of Miller type B events) early in the winter NOV-DEC and perhaps early JAN. The potential for a suppressed/cold pattern in FEB--this can happen when the NAO and PNA cause the through to reach extreme amplitude...its a cold pattern but not a very snowy one.

I also fear the possibility that DC sees most of its seasonal snowfall in one big dump from a major east coast snow event, rather than a little here and there all winter with smaller events if that makes sense.

The further north and inland you go I’m extremely confident that those locations will see much above to excessively above normal snowfall.

[yoda]

I will review the QBO... thanks for the response.

I agree. The pattern suggests a likelihood of inland runners... but I see a winter pattern favorable to the potential for a few strong noreasters as well.

[wxguy25]

I will review the QBO... thanks for the response.

I agree. The pattern suggests a likelihood of inland runners... but I see a winter pattern favorable to the potential for a few strong noreasters as well.

the periods to watch for major Nor'easters are Late DEC around Xmas and near the end of the winter--MAR perhaps?

the best potential for a third major Nor'easter which amounts to a significant snow snow event for the big cities would be in mid JAN.

[yoda]

I will review the QBO... thanks for the response.

I agree. The pattern suggests a likelihood of inland runners... but I see a winter pattern favorable to the potential for a few strong noreasters as well.

the periods to watch for major Nor'easters are Late DEC around Xmas and near the end of the winter--MAR perhaps?

the best potential for a third major Nor'easter which amounts to a significant snow snow event for the big cities would be in mid JAN.

OK thanks. Nice job and thanks for responding.

[wxguy25]

Excellent post and excellent work as usual. You explained everything well and made it easy for me to understand.

One question I have is you state this:

"If the QBO once again increases westerly (i.e. a secondary peak) a majority of the aforementioned winters would once again come back onto the table with respect to being analogs for this particular feature. It may also signal a much increased chance for a severe winter in the I-95 corridor of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast."

What are the chances of that happening?

I think the QBO will reverse w/o increasing westerly again but I wanted to make note of that just incase for some reason the QBO does that. Go back through the QBO data and you will see what im talking about. the winters that were weak west (below +8.00 on the winter for the DEC-FEB period) w/ weak El nino conditions were some of the most severe.

As long as the QBO remains near neutral, it should not make a real big difference pattern wise.

In addition, you state in your forecast for DC to have 15-25 inches of snow. But wouldn't DC see above average snowfall due to a weak El Nino with the likelihood of a +PNA/-NAO composite?

Thanks. I went Conservative here. Perhaps too much so. The forecast goes 5-7" below the analog mean but I have my concerns as to why DC will not see extravagant totals. 1) Pattern favors Inland running systems (or alot of Miller type B events) early in the winter NOV-DEC and perhaps early JAN. The potential for a suppressed/cold pattern in FEB--this can happen when the NAO and PNA cause the through to reach extreme amplitude...its a cold pattern but not a very snowy one.

I also fear the possibility that DC sees most of its seasonal snowfall in one big dump from a major east coast snow event, rather than a little here and there all winter with smaller events if that makes sense.

The further north and inland you go I’m extremely confident that those locations will see much above to excessively above normal snowfall.

More likely than the Inland runner idea is the potential for several Miller Type B systems. Normally those aren’t the greatest for the DCA-BWI portion of the I-95 corridor since the warm air punches in aloft before secondary cyclogenesis is able to take place and pinch it off, plus the cold air which comes in as the inland low fills and the coastal takes over is normally too late to have a major effect on Precip type. Reference DEC 2002, JAN 2003, etc... as some of the latest examples. Or maybe if you’re lucky you get some additional snow on the backside of the low w/ the cold conveyer belt.

PHL northward and inland it’s a MUCH...MUCH different story. Areas to the NW of DCA like out there in Loudon, and Carroll counties, Fredericksburg, Hagerstown, Oakland MD in the far western part of the state will do VERY well this winter.

[weatherfan]

Very good and nicey done forecasts.I guess we just have to see how the pattern behaves.It is diffentey more complicated then the last few years.Because the ssts are inverted a bit more differenty then in the winter of 2002-2003 not really reverse in both the Pac and Alantic.More of a inverted verson of 2002.I do agree with the over all ideal with you forecast.But I tend to agree more with HM and some others ideals that the pattern from now intil Late Januarey is one where the mid west and the plains will see there cold and snowey pattern.Because one thing I have noted is the PV it is not on our side of the pole yet.So with all that I'm seeing so far perhaps a winter where the mid west and plains sees there cold and snow first hafe of the winter.Which does it those discount there maybe a few exceations follow up storms that bring a threat to the Northeast.ANd the East and Northeast seacond hafe.As the PV or the main cold hights move east word by febuarey-March. one thing I do agree on and that is the possablty of the major citys geting one huge dump.Febuarey of 79 was a example of that which isnt the best anlog but could have a slimmer outcome where we maybe headed.

[CaptinCrunch]

Great Forecast!! AWESOME

[Brent]

Great forecast.

The Subtropical jet is in excellent position to bring us a big snow.

[therock1811]

So we're talking 150% of normal snow here in KY? WOW I hope so! Like I've sai8d though, anyone who wants the icy stuff can take it!

[LAwxrgal]

Hi, very thorough and detailed forecast you have there. I guess my one question, in looking at the maps, I notice for Louisiana you have below-normal temps and average precipitation.

The reason I'm asking is we're just getting done with what has been billed as the warmest October on record here.

Just exactly what does the winter forecast mean for Louisiana, particularly the southern part of the state?

[Guest]

I LOVE IT! extremely similar thinking to my winter outlook. Im just in the 175% above normal zone, which would give me... (22 + 5.5 +5.5 +5.5...) about 37/38 inches! this would be great (I'm also in the -4 zone). But I'm curious as to why your forecasting only 15-25 in DC? its avg snow fall is 17 and with about 160% of avg, wouldn't it be more like 20-30?

[Superstorm]

Psst... Fredericksburg is 50 miles south of DC along 95. I happen to know because I live there. Nice little town, but 100+ miles away from any mountains! Come down here in the winter and that sentence will quickly become the bane of your existence. Sounds like you're forecasting another winter of snow to sleet/rain and coastals well to our north. 02-03 was great around here, 36" total, but just 60 miles south, RIC got 16-20". They are so overdue down there it's not even funny anymore! What do you forecast for RIC this year?

[AggieSpirit]

Will the Dallas/Ft Worth area see a significant snow event like last year? That is what I want to know.

[deguy50]

thanx alot great forecast and lots of info

[Guest]

yes, I live in Mclean. 02-03 was excellent for me, 50 inches. However, like most of NoVa last year, we got missed by all but 3 storms. the major December storm only dropped 5 inches here, and we also had another 5 inches in mid December. we also had the 6 incher in late January, and a bunch of ice in February, ended up 6 inches below average.

[donsutherland1]

Great job and wonderful explanation as always.

[Anonymous]

Very nice forecast. If you compare this one to Don's...

1. Your predicting more cold (-4)
2. More snow (+175%)

DC still seems to be the odd man out in the snow department...
Don= 12-17
USA= 15-25
USA prediction falls in the average zone for DC...

I certainly see this as a snowy year in DC compared to last year and should be 25+ IMO... In addition, the North-west suburbs of DC, including IAD, Loudoun, Clarke, Frederick counties, and Martinsburg, WV, Hagerstown, MD, the I-81 corridor could easily see 36-40+ this winter.

[wxguy25]

Psst... Fredericksburg is 50 miles south of DC along 95. I happen to know because I live there. Nice little town, but 100+ miles away from any mountains! Come down here in the winter and that sentence will quickly become the bane of your existence. Sounds like you're forecasting another winter of snow to sleet/rain and coastals well to our north.

For the first part of the winter, thats the overall Idea.

02-03 was great around here, 36" total, but just 60 miles south, RIC got 16-20". They are so overdue down there it's not even funny anymore! What do you forecast for RIC this year?

I expect to see 15-19" of snow (100-130% of normal) in RIC this winter. Average is just about 15. All the analogs had close to normal snowfall w/ one season seeing nearly 250% of normal but as you might guess its a pretty large outlier.