I suspect that on BT, that Otto will likely be shown as a subtropical depression starting on the 27th roughly about 12 UTC when a tight LLCC was evident but anemic on convection and a subtropical storm on the 29th at 00z ...
on another note, what does Otto serve to do?
delay the much anticipated PR releases of Frances, and Ivan ...
SF
Based on post analysis of Otto ...
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Stormsfury
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cycloneye
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Agree 100% on both accounts SF.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
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Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:I could go back to later on the 26 of Novemeber for subtropical depression. Then a subtropical storm later on the 27th. Becoming tropical ealy the 29th.
26th - still very cold-core and had obvious frontal structures ... the occluded low was still drawing colder, drier air from the NW ... and around to the southern side ...
SF
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Wnghs2007
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Stormsfury wrote:Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:I could go back to later on the 26 of Novemeber for subtropical depression. Then a subtropical storm later on the 27th. Becoming tropical ealy the 29th.
26th - still very cold-core and had obvious frontal structures ... the occluded low was still drawing colder, drier air from the NW ... and around to the southern side ...
SF
Hmmm. I do happen to agree with that statement. And you can go back to post on the site saying it still looked Non Tropical
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Hyperstorm
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The report on TS Otto is out. You were very close for the subtropical transition. It even mentions the possibility that Otto could have been a subtropical storm even earlier than what they proposed, probably near 0000Z on the 29th. Who knows? Aside from that, there's a few interesting things to point out about the report:
1) The system became a subtropical storm on 1200 29 November or about 30 hours before it was operationally upgraded to a tropical storm.
2) Ironically, the peak intensity of 45kts (50mph) occured during the subtropical storm stage.
3) It became a tropical storm on 1200 30 November or about 6 hours before it was operationally classified as such.
4) The system was carried on as a tropical depression until 0600 3 December or about 18 hours after advisories were dropped operationally.
I suspected this was going to occur. The NHC is always behind when initiating advisories on transitioning cyclones. Their saving grace is that there is not a well-defined line to distinguish between them (extratropical/subtropical/tropical), so they try to play conservative. On the other hand, I don't like when they play the totally opposite way when a system is fairly close to land. It seems as if they upgrade TOO quickly. Can I name Grace? This is a big contrast and NEEDS to be addressed.
Also, this report throws out the idea of Otto being the first/only named storm to develop on the last day of the hurricane season.
1) The system became a subtropical storm on 1200 29 November or about 30 hours before it was operationally upgraded to a tropical storm.
2) Ironically, the peak intensity of 45kts (50mph) occured during the subtropical storm stage.
3) It became a tropical storm on 1200 30 November or about 6 hours before it was operationally classified as such.
4) The system was carried on as a tropical depression until 0600 3 December or about 18 hours after advisories were dropped operationally.
I suspected this was going to occur. The NHC is always behind when initiating advisories on transitioning cyclones. Their saving grace is that there is not a well-defined line to distinguish between them (extratropical/subtropical/tropical), so they try to play conservative. On the other hand, I don't like when they play the totally opposite way when a system is fairly close to land. It seems as if they upgrade TOO quickly. Can I name Grace? This is a big contrast and NEEDS to be addressed.
Also, this report throws out the idea of Otto being the first/only named storm to develop on the last day of the hurricane season.
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