Signs of Winter's Shift to the East Beginning to Appear

[CaptinCrunch]

EURO, GFS and the MRF all show a BIG CHANGE coming by the 13th with very COLD ARTIC air making it's way into the E and SE U.S, it even has S Florida in on the cold air intrusion as well as Texas. I will keep everybody informed on this Change in the winter pattern.

[aggiecutter]

Just saw the new EURO for next Monday. It has a pretty decent shot of arctic air heading into North Texas. As soon as Plymouth updates their site, I'll link it. Also, one of the local mets. mentioned that an arctic front would be coming through the region next sunday. We'll see if it comes to fruition as the models have been all over the place this year, even more than usual.

[CaptinCrunch]

[aggiecutter]

Captin, this is where I think the pattern ends up in a couple weeks. This is the 4th run in a row the GFS has had the same basic solution between 240-360. There will be a couple warning shots of cold air, in and out in a few days, the next few weeks. Then here comes the deep freeze.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _384.shtml

[sertorius]

aggiecutter:

I think you are right-the gfs and mrf (are they the same?? That really makes me look silly!!) have been on the same "trend" for 4-5 days-it would seem that after this week, the central plains southward will have a change. The cold shot next Monday only lasts a day or two with a stronger one on Thursday-but boy by the Tuesday before X-mass, it looks like a real cold shot. My concern: 1. It is the gfs. 2. I don't know enough to look at other conditions and see if the gfs is onto something (I'm just a Latin teacher LOL) The Euro does support the next Monday idea so maybe the GFS is onto something-There is still quite a bit of cold air in the NWT of Canada and it really doesn't get that scoured out. Weather the GFS is right now or not, at least it gives us something to discuss for the next week-this week is not good for a winter weather lover!!

[CaptinCrunch]

I can only hope so, because the GFS always overdoes the cold air masses, and like what everyone else says anything past D5+1 is a crap shot at best.

[aggiecutter]

sertorious, the ridge east of the Caspian will pop latter this week re-supplying Canada with cold air in the next 10-15 days. At that time, the upper levels will favor that air coming into plains and the east.---see Don's and Wings post above. This has the potential to be an extreme cold event east of the Rockies Christmas week with a PV vortex over the lakes and cross polar flow. I've noticed of few of the other mets. on different sites are now starting to hedge that way also.

[KWT]

funnily enough theres some good agreements between GFs over here for a colder mid month,nothing severe but it could be cold enough for snow,depending off course as to wether the models are right.

UKMO is ace for the U.K tonight,in the fact that it has a eruo high that looks like it's heading towards Greenland,if it gets into the right place it could either give:

a:very very mild temps
b:Very cold temps.

[aggiecutter]

If you get a block in Greeland, look out below.

[vbhoutex]

Captin, this is where I think the pattern ends up in a couple weeks. This is the 4th run in a row the GFS has had the same basic solution between 240-360. There will be a couple warning shots of cold air, in and out in a few days, the next few weeks. Then here comes the deep freeze.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _384.shtml

That is a definite cold shot straight from the Arctic if if verifies. Starting to look a lot like 1983 now(temp wise and timing wise) if it holds on and isn't just another shot as oppsoed to a pattern change. I won't rehash the concerns we all have concering the model.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

NMS D/FW has taken note, but they don't believe it will be long lasting. But then again some forecasters don't think cold blasts into Texas will last long and they end up back tracking big time after it is too late.




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
218 PM CST MON DEC 6 2004

.DISCUSSION...
SQUALL LINE PROGGED TO BE NEAR/ALONG I-35 AT 23 Z... AND THROUGH THE
EASTERN COUNTIES BY 03Z THIS EVENING. VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH/SHORT
WAVE WITH SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL ALOFT... CURRENTLY OVER SE NEW
MEXICO AT 20Z... WILL MOVE NORTHEAST RAPIDLY AND INTO SW OKLAHOMA
THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE FWD 18Z SOUNDING INDICATED A CAP AROUND
900MB... THERE IS STRONG SYNOPTIC LIFT...DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND JET
DYNAMICS MOVING INTO THE REGION. THUS... SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
ALONG THE SQUALL LINE. CONCERNING TORNADO POTENTIAL... AS THE
SQUALL LINE MOVES INTO THE WARM SECTOR AIR MASS (IN THE KSAT-
KLFK-KHOU REGION) ROTATING SURFACE BASE SUPERCELL STORMS COULD
DEVELOP AND LEAD TO ISOLATED TORNADOES JUST OUTSIDE OUR SOUTHEAST
CWA LATE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

REST OF THE FORECAST... OTHER THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE
SE 1/2 WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY... NORTH TEXAS SHOULD ENJOY A
PATTERN OF FAIR WEATHER AND NORMAL TEMPERATURES REST OF THE WEEK.

ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION NEXT MONDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL BE OF NORTH PACIFIC ORIGIN AND CURRENTLY LOOKS SEASONABLY
COOL AND DRY.

LOOKING FAR AHEAD... OUR 16 DAY GFS IS SHOWING A POTENTIAL FOR
ARCTIC AIR TO INVADE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND NORTH TEXAS TWO WEEKS
FROM TODAY... ON MONDAY DEC 20. HOWEVER... THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN
REMAINS PROGRESSIVE AND THE ARCTIC AIR WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION
BY THE 22ND.

[aggiecutter]

houtex, the timing is eerily the same as december of 83. As a matter fact, the overall pattern since mid-October has reminded of the fall of 83. A warm late October that continued into November. That was followed by storminess with variable temps the first 10 days of december. The next 7-10 days of december had a couple cold shots of arctic air that only lasted for a couple days. Then, the week before Christmas the arctic hound was unleashed for a couple weeks. Whether it happens or not, the pattern is heading that direction.

I think one or two things are happening here. Either the models are really on to something, or they're just a little quick on the trigger. If it's the latter, then the extreme cold would come at the first of the year. Then, your looking at pattern that resembles that of 78, which would fit in quite nicely as an analog year for a weak El-Nino.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Two sources you might to pay attention to see if this pattern is for real.

1) NWS Brownsville- IF they still have some of the old timers from the 80's and when they get concerend, it's showtime! As I recall, they seem to track these outbreaks pretty good as they have alot of cold sensentive agriculture down there.

2) Bastardi- Yes , he gets hammered by some. But he does get alot of stuff correct down here for the same reason stated above.

just some food for thought.

[Portastorm]

I think it is also important to note that any true Arctic air intrusion (unless it's an extremely shallow one) in the South is much more difficult to displace than modeling initially indicates.

I've lost count with the number of times in 20 some years in Texas that I've seen the NWS back-track on blown temps forecasts when we've experience a real Arctic airmass or "Polar Express." Once they roll down the Plains, it's not so easy to get rid of them. That's why I chuckled when I saw what Fort Worth wrote.

That being said, I wonder about the lack of snowpack in the Plains right now and how modified the Arctic air might be when it does hit us. I dunno.

[CaptinCrunch]

I think it is also important to note that any true Arctic air intrusion (unless it's an extremely shallow one) in the South is much more difficult to displace than modeling initially indicates.

I've lost count with the number of times in 20 some years in Texas that I've seen the NWS back-track on blown temps forecasts when we've experience a real Arctic airmass or "Polar Express." Once they roll down the Plains, it's not so easy to get rid of them. That's why I chuckled when I saw what Fort Worth wrote.

That being said, I wonder about the lack of snowpack in the Plains right now and how modified the Arctic air might be when it does hit us. I dunno.

You will see a 2 or 3 good little snows across the northern plains before the artic dumps on us down here. This current low that is pounding Texas today will bring snow to the NE by Wednesday, and a short wave coming across the northern plains will help with some light to mod snows for them.

[sertorius]

Great discussion here!!! I am excited about this-even if it doesn't verify, or is only half right, it at least gives us something to discuss for the next week or so!!! If the Euro gets on board and that cold air reloads in Southern Canada, it could be a good one. Have a good afternoon!!

[gboudx]

I may be the only one hoping this holds off until after Xmas. We travel to New Orleans to visit family and the thought of driving with ice on the roads and 2 kids in the car is not appealing to me. I'd love to see snow, but not when it might inconvenience me. Sorry to be selfish.