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aggiecutter wrote:Captin, this is where I think the pattern ends up in a couple weeks. This is the 4th run in a row the GFS has had the same basic solution between 240-360. There will be a couple warning shots of cold air, in and out in a few days, the next few weeks. Then here comes the deep freeze.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _384.shtml
Portastorm wrote:I think it is also important to note that any true Arctic air intrusion (unless it's an extremely shallow one) in the South is much more difficult to displace than modeling initially indicates.
I've lost count with the number of times in 20 some years in Texas that I've seen the NWS back-track on blown temps forecasts when we've experience a real Arctic airmass or "Polar Express." Once they roll down the Plains, it's not so easy to get rid of them. That's why I chuckled when I saw what Fort Worth wrote.
That being said, I wonder about the lack of snowpack in the Plains right now and how modified the Arctic air might be when it does hit us. I dunno.
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