06z GFS goes bonkers ...

[Stormsfury]

yes, 06z GFS has lost its mind ...

as much as I'd love for this to verify, the likelihood of this happening is about as likely as getting to marry Paris Hilton, and turning her into a scholar, among other things ...

Basically at the 192H on the 6z run, this run would bury CHS under a historic snowstorm, in which the problem is related to crappy resolution along w/convective feedback ...

Now, with that dose of reality being said, IT IS TYPICAL of CHS to get a winter weather/snow event after a prolonged warm spell. Highly amplified patterns are almost always required for any significant amount of snow at CHS (exception to the rule are CAD/overrunning events...)

[Tip]

The GFS ensemble from the 0Z run shows most members rocketing the arctic from well offshore. However, it may be trending to a slower solution for the frontal passage as of the 06z run ala the UKMET allowing moisture to ride up the coast.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSPRS_12z/f180.gif

http://meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_ame ... _0000.html

[donsutherland1]

SF,

I agree with your skepticism concerning the 6z GFS solution. Nevertheless, I very much hope that the Charleston area will be able to see a major snowfall this season.

[Anonymous]

SF,

I agree with your skepticism concerning the 6z GFS solution. Nevertheless, I very much hope that the Charleston area will be able to see a major snowfall this season.

What does all that mean at the top? An east coast storm? what does chs mean?

[JenyEliza]

CHS = Charleston, SC

[krysof]

gfs trends precipitation closer and closer to the coast with cold air in place

[Anonymous]

gfs trends precipitation closer and closer to the coast with cold air in place

where do you think this storm will go? will it hit philly?

[krysof]

the moisture may ride up the coast like they say, we have to see what the 0z gfs models say.

[Anonymous]

the moisture may ride up the coast like they say, we have to see what the 0z gfs models say.

when you say ride up the coast do u mean that it will be like another december 26th storm (hitting the coast of new jersey and then killing boston) or it might hit more inland cities like phildelphia? whats the 0z gfs models?

[krysof]

I post the 18z models

[krysof]

forgot how to post

[Chris the Weather Man]

Calm down here...... GFS is not the model in the mid-range... THE Euro is.......

[wxguy25]

Calm down here...... GFS is not the model in the mid-range... THE Euro is.......

the GFS really is NOT the model period. In the Short term its an ETA/ECMWF combination which is deadly reliable.

Remember the GFS is like an Ex-girlfriend or an ex-wife. Starts out looking great in the extended BUT ends up screwing you In the end.

Three points here. The GFS truncation error is a problem at 192 hrs, secondly the cold/overamplification bias east of the rockies takes over, and lastly its an off cycle run (06z). Check it against the Ensembles and ECMWF operational before drawing conclusions.

[krysof]

yep

[Bane]

Not gonna happen, but it sure would be nice to see.

[wxguy25]

And you can toss tonights ETA/GFS 0z cycles right into the friendly ole crapper b/c there were no Mexican RAOBS in for the initialization. Another reason why the ECMWF is superior to the US generated models---superior data coverage and initialization.

Read it and weep:

688
NOUS42 KWNO 100129
ADMNFD
SPECIAL NCEP DISCUSSION
CENTRAL OPERATIONS/NCEP/NWS/WASHINGTON DC
0126 UTC MON JAN 10 2005

100126Z...00Z MODEL CYCLE STARTED ON TIME...WITH
GOOD DATA COVERAGE. NO MEXICAN REPORTS WERE AVAILABLE
BUT....14 AK/30 CANADIAN/68 CONUS AND 3 CARIBBEAN
REPORTS WERE RECEIVED IN TIME FOR THE ETA START.

ETA RAOB RECAP...

YVQ/71043 - DELETED WINDS 850-620MB...BAD DIRECTIONS.
YEU/71917 - HELD TEMPS 1003-811MB...GOOD/COLD.
YYE/71945 - HELD TEMPS 964-781MB...GOOD/COLD.
MAF/72265 - TTAA NOT AVAILABLE FOR THE ETA.
NKX/72293 - REPORT NOT AVAILABLE FOR THE ETA.
EPZ/72364 - TTBB NOT AVAILABLE FOR THE ETA.
REV/72489 - REPORT DELAYED...10143.
TFX/72776 - HELD TEMPS 885-700MB...GOOD/COLD.
CHH/74494 - FLIGHT EQ FAILURE...10158.
KPP/78970 - REPORT NOT AVAILABLE...10159.
TYA/91413 - REPORT NOT AVAILABLE.

WOOLDRIDGE/SDM/NCO/NCEP
NNNN

[yoda]

And you can toss tonights ETA/GFS 0z cycles right into the friendly ole crapper b/c there were no Mexican RAOBS in for the initialization. Another reason why the ECMWF is superior to the US generated models---superior data coverage and initialization.

Read it and weep:

688
NOUS42 KWNO 100129
ADMNFD
SPECIAL NCEP DISCUSSION
CENTRAL OPERATIONS/NCEP/NWS/WASHINGTON DC
0126 UTC MON JAN 10 2005

100126Z...00Z MODEL CYCLE STARTED ON TIME...WITH
GOOD DATA COVERAGE. NO MEXICAN REPORTS WERE AVAILABLE
BUT....14 AK/30 CANADIAN/68 CONUS AND 3 CARIBBEAN
REPORTS WERE RECEIVED IN TIME FOR THE ETA START.

ETA RAOB RECAP...

YVQ/71043 - DELETED WINDS 850-620MB...BAD DIRECTIONS.
YEU/71917 - HELD TEMPS 1003-811MB...GOOD/COLD.
YYE/71945 - HELD TEMPS 964-781MB...GOOD/COLD.
MAF/72265 - TTAA NOT AVAILABLE FOR THE ETA.
NKX/72293 - REPORT NOT AVAILABLE FOR THE ETA.
EPZ/72364 - TTBB NOT AVAILABLE FOR THE ETA.
REV/72489 - REPORT DELAYED...10143.
TFX/72776 - HELD TEMPS 885-700MB...GOOD/COLD.
CHH/74494 - FLIGHT EQ FAILURE...10158.
KPP/78970 - REPORT NOT AVAILABLE...10159.
TYA/91413 - REPORT NOT AVAILABLE.

WOOLDRIDGE/SDM/NCO/NCEP
NNNN

Ridiculous. How is this possible anyway? Do they just not get them?