Winter Storm Watch for Seattle and all of western WA
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After an overnight low of 19 F, things have warmed (HEAT WAVE) to 33 F. With a southwesterly flow and fairly high 500 mb thicknesses, any precip...at least initially...should be in the form of rain. With a significant westerly flow, there will be a rainshadow...although with a northwest flow aloft, the rainshadow will particularly affect the Kitsap peninsula. As for tonight...BIG QUESTIONS arise!! As has been stated, a significant event or nothing. Strong westerly flow aloft and at the surface, combined with cold air advection behind the cold front should create a moderate wind event down the Strait of Juan Defuca and Everett area...gusts perhaps as high as 45mph...not damaging, but noticable. Initially, with such a strong westerly flow, the PSCZ will stay in the foothills and mountains. Sometime, and this is pretty rare, if the westerly winds are TOO strong, the PSCZ doesn't form. We'll have to see about that...but once the westerly winds relax around midnight, the zone will shift to the west and strengthen. The position is tricky...right now it looks right around Everett then shifting south and west. Should fizzle around Bellevue as a northerly flow takes over the westerly flow down the Juan Defuca. How much snow?! I'm not going to try and answer that question. It's too difficult. Some areas might see 6 inches...other none. Just depends where you live. After that, 850 mb heights are unbelievably cold on the GFS and ETA...around -16C. Expect arctic air from Wednesday thru Saturday, although Sunday could be an interesting transition day as a storm moves north from California and cold air is trapped at the surface. Wed. thru Saturday expect highs ranging from 25-35 F, overnight lows from 10-25 F. Pretty cold stuff. Not sure what to say about the extended because most long-range models are 180 degrees different from yesterday. The significant trough in the central and eastern part of the country is ALOT weaker than was the case yesterday. Early indications show a more zonal flow across the country. WOW!! I wrote alot. Hopefully that helps everyone.
Anthony
Anthony
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I really like my specific forecast!!
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/?dgtl=1&wfo=sew&zone=waz004&county=WAC033&mapzone=waz004&map.x=178&map.y=60
It will probably change and I refuse to believe it until I see it!!
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/?dgtl=1&wfo=sew&zone=waz004&county=WAC033&mapzone=waz004&map.x=178&map.y=60
It will probably change and I refuse to believe it until I see it!!
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We have cooled down to 34 F from 37 F (a three degree drop), in the last hour. We also have a Dew Point of 27 F. Hard to believe that it will be rain here, but we will just have to wait and see.
TT and anyone else: How do you think the East Hill of Kent (if you don't know where that is, think of us being very close to Black Diamond/Covington/Enumclaw/Ravensdale areas) will fair? Thanks.
TT and anyone else: How do you think the East Hill of Kent (if you don't know where that is, think of us being very close to Black Diamond/Covington/Enumclaw/Ravensdale areas) will fair? Thanks.

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TT-SEA wrote:I really like my specific forecast!!
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/?dgtl=1&wfo=sew&zone=waz004&county=WAC033&mapzone=waz004&map.x=178&map.y=60
It will probably change and I refuse to believe it until I see it!!
For reference to my above post, I live just east of where the "T" in "Kent" is on the map.
Last edited by W13 on Tue Jan 11, 2005 6:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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REMEMBER: I'm not a meteorologist and thus can't be 100 percent accurate...if 50 percent accurate. lol. So if the information I'm giving does not unfold word-for-word, don't get mad. I'm just doing my best to give some insite.
R-Dub,
You live in Stanwood? You're fairly far north and thus should escape the southwesterly flow...or only get a little light wind. You should also escape the rainshadow...I would expect some heavy snow amounts for you...heavy meaning 1-4 inches. lol. And Saturday looks interesting, but 850 mb heights seem a little too high and 500 mb thicknesses don't support sea level snow. We'll have to wait and see how this arctic air progresses.
R-Dub,
You live in Stanwood? You're fairly far north and thus should escape the southwesterly flow...or only get a little light wind. You should also escape the rainshadow...I would expect some heavy snow amounts for you...heavy meaning 1-4 inches. lol. And Saturday looks interesting, but 850 mb heights seem a little too high and 500 mb thicknesses don't support sea level snow. We'll have to wait and see how this arctic air progresses.
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R-Dub wrote:Looks like Felton did a copy and paste, with just a couple of tweeks. He mentioned nothing about the light snow falling here at LK Goodwin. I am really looking foreward to tonights discussion, Albright or one of the other guys should be doing that one.
Yeah, hopefully. Felton is just way to pessimistic in these kind of events.

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Article about the possible snow tonight and tommorow by Scott Sistek on Komo4.com:
http://www.komo4.com/stories/34755.htm
http://www.komo4.com/stories/34755.htm
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ESE wind really has picked up swirling those little tiny flakes all over. Looks like I may see some mixing to warmer air. We shall see. Nothing has even tried to melt yet today.
1/11/05 LK Goodwin WA
3:47:31 PM CURRENT
LT Snow
Temperature (ºF) 32.7
Humidity (%) 85.8
Wind (mph) ESE 4.9
Daily Rain (") 0.00
Pressure ("Hg) 29.96
Dew Point: 29.9 ºF
1/11/05 LK Goodwin WA
3:47:31 PM CURRENT
LT Snow
Temperature (ºF) 32.7
Humidity (%) 85.8
Wind (mph) ESE 4.9
Daily Rain (") 0.00
Pressure ("Hg) 29.96
Dew Point: 29.9 ºF
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