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AnthonyC
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#541 Postby AnthonyC » Tue Jan 11, 2005 6:09 pm

After an overnight low of 19 F, things have warmed (HEAT WAVE) to 33 F. With a southwesterly flow and fairly high 500 mb thicknesses, any precip...at least initially...should be in the form of rain. With a significant westerly flow, there will be a rainshadow...although with a northwest flow aloft, the rainshadow will particularly affect the Kitsap peninsula. As for tonight...BIG QUESTIONS arise!! As has been stated, a significant event or nothing. Strong westerly flow aloft and at the surface, combined with cold air advection behind the cold front should create a moderate wind event down the Strait of Juan Defuca and Everett area...gusts perhaps as high as 45mph...not damaging, but noticable. Initially, with such a strong westerly flow, the PSCZ will stay in the foothills and mountains. Sometime, and this is pretty rare, if the westerly winds are TOO strong, the PSCZ doesn't form. We'll have to see about that...but once the westerly winds relax around midnight, the zone will shift to the west and strengthen. The position is tricky...right now it looks right around Everett then shifting south and west. Should fizzle around Bellevue as a northerly flow takes over the westerly flow down the Juan Defuca. How much snow?! I'm not going to try and answer that question. It's too difficult. Some areas might see 6 inches...other none. Just depends where you live. After that, 850 mb heights are unbelievably cold on the GFS and ETA...around -16C. Expect arctic air from Wednesday thru Saturday, although Sunday could be an interesting transition day as a storm moves north from California and cold air is trapped at the surface. Wed. thru Saturday expect highs ranging from 25-35 F, overnight lows from 10-25 F. Pretty cold stuff. Not sure what to say about the extended because most long-range models are 180 degrees different from yesterday. The significant trough in the central and eastern part of the country is ALOT weaker than was the case yesterday. Early indications show a more zonal flow across the country. WOW!! I wrote alot. Hopefully that helps everyone.

Anthony
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TT-SEA

#542 Postby TT-SEA » Tue Jan 11, 2005 6:10 pm

I really like my specific forecast!!

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/?dgtl=1&wfo=sew&zone=waz004&county=WAC033&mapzone=waz004&map.x=178&map.y=60

It will probably change and I refuse to believe it until I see it!!
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#543 Postby R-Dub » Tue Jan 11, 2005 6:13 pm

Anthony, should I see a turn over to rain at some point? Still snowing here. Temp is at 32.8 degrees Dewpoint 29.7 degrees
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#544 Postby W13 » Tue Jan 11, 2005 6:13 pm

We have cooled down to 34 F from 37 F (a three degree drop), in the last hour. We also have a Dew Point of 27 F. Hard to believe that it will be rain here, but we will just have to wait and see.

TT and anyone else: How do you think the East Hill of Kent (if you don't know where that is, think of us being very close to Black Diamond/Covington/Enumclaw/Ravensdale areas) will fair? Thanks. 8-)
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#545 Postby R-Dub » Tue Jan 11, 2005 6:15 pm

Anthony, Snowwizzard says there could be a snowstorm on sat. Are you seeing this?
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#546 Postby W13 » Tue Jan 11, 2005 6:17 pm

TT-SEA wrote:I really like my specific forecast!!

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/?dgtl=1&wfo=sew&zone=waz004&county=WAC033&mapzone=waz004&map.x=178&map.y=60

It will probably change and I refuse to believe it until I see it!!


For reference to my above post, I live just east of where the "T" in "Kent" is on the map.
Last edited by W13 on Tue Jan 11, 2005 6:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#547 Postby AnthonyC » Tue Jan 11, 2005 6:18 pm

REMEMBER: I'm not a meteorologist and thus can't be 100 percent accurate...if 50 percent accurate. lol. So if the information I'm giving does not unfold word-for-word, don't get mad. I'm just doing my best to give some insite.

R-Dub,

You live in Stanwood? You're fairly far north and thus should escape the southwesterly flow...or only get a little light wind. You should also escape the rainshadow...I would expect some heavy snow amounts for you...heavy meaning 1-4 inches. lol. And Saturday looks interesting, but 850 mb heights seem a little too high and 500 mb thicknesses don't support sea level snow. We'll have to wait and see how this arctic air progresses.
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#548 Postby AnthonyC » Tue Jan 11, 2005 6:26 pm

Wow, the afternoon NWS discussion was the EXACT SAME discussion from this morning. This Felton guy doesn't do a good job explaining anything. He does hint that the "cooler" pattern may extend a little longer.
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#549 Postby R-Dub » Tue Jan 11, 2005 6:30 pm

Looks like Felton did a copy and paste, with just a couple of tweeks. He mentioned nothing about the light snow falling here at LK Goodwin. I am really looking foreward to tonights discussion, Albright or one of the other guys should be doing that one.
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#550 Postby W13 » Tue Jan 11, 2005 6:32 pm

R-Dub wrote:Looks like Felton did a copy and paste, with just a couple of tweeks. He mentioned nothing about the light snow falling here at LK Goodwin. I am really looking foreward to tonights discussion, Albright or one of the other guys should be doing that one.


Yeah, hopefully. Felton is just way to pessimistic in these kind of events. :roll:
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#551 Postby W13 » Tue Jan 11, 2005 6:34 pm

Latest NWS Forecast Discussion mentions that the PSCV may extend south to the Sammamish Plateau/Issaquah Highlands, I am only a few miles away from both of those areas. Hmm ... :)
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#552 Postby W13 » Tue Jan 11, 2005 6:35 pm

Article about the possible snow tonight and tommorow by Scott Sistek on Komo4.com:

http://www.komo4.com/stories/34755.htm
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#553 Postby R-Dub » Tue Jan 11, 2005 6:50 pm

ESE wind really has picked up swirling those little tiny flakes all over. Looks like I may see some mixing to warmer air. We shall see. Nothing has even tried to melt yet today.

1/11/05 LK Goodwin WA
3:47:31 PM CURRENT
LT Snow
Temperature (ºF) 32.7
Humidity (%) 85.8
Wind (mph) ESE 4.9
Daily Rain (") 0.00
Pressure ("Hg) 29.96
Dew Point: 29.9 ºF
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#554 Postby W13 » Tue Jan 11, 2005 7:11 pm

Just dropped a degree, down to 33 F, with a Dew Point of 37 F.
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#555 Postby AnthonyC » Tue Jan 11, 2005 7:15 pm

West winds have substantially picked up the past thirty minutes. Gusts up to 15-20 mph. I pray for a high wind event tonight...if not 1-3 inches of snow. The possibility is there, but not definite.
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#556 Postby W13 » Tue Jan 11, 2005 8:15 pm

Holding steady at 33 F with a Dew Point of 28 F.
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#557 Postby andycottle » Tue Jan 11, 2005 8:19 pm

For that PSCZ...I say that I`ll mostly likely be under it as 90 to 95% of the time...get hit by the PSCZ. -- Andy
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TT-SEA

#558 Postby TT-SEA » Tue Jan 11, 2005 8:21 pm

I would say that Andy and I will both be under the PSCZ.

Now... hopefully it will be falling as heavy snow and not rain or a sloppy rain/snow mix.
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#559 Postby TT-SEA » Tue Jan 11, 2005 8:22 pm

R-Dub... radar shows precipitation in your area. What is falling??

Here it is 34 degrees with a dewpoint of 24 degrees and cloudy skies.
Last edited by TT-SEA on Tue Jan 11, 2005 8:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#560 Postby W13 » Tue Jan 11, 2005 8:22 pm

How about the East Hill of Kent/Enumclaw area TT?
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