Wxblog update...making sense of the model mess
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- Lowpressure
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- wxguy25
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Fodie77 wrote:wxguy25 wrote:Fodie77 wrote:When you say 12"+ in the mountains, do you mean the mid-atlantic interior?
Yep
Oh, in that case <gets down on knees> I hope you're right for us here in the valley.
You could probably extend that up into the Potomac highlands and into the central Mountains of PA where you will have the ratios and Orographic component.
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- wxguy25
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Brent wrote:wxguy25 wrote:Brent wrote:What about down in Eastern Tennessee(the Smokies?)
IF you buy the GFS (which I dont) you could get some significant snow. Thats NOT my take at this point.
So you don't think it'll be a big snow down there?
Not right now. IF you want the snow Go visit Fodie in the Shenandoah valley.
Last edited by wxguy25 on Wed Jan 19, 2005 8:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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wxguy25 wrote:Brent wrote:wxguy25 wrote:Brent wrote:What about down in Eastern Tennessee(the Smokies?)
IF you buy the GFS (which I dont) you could get some significant snow. Thats NOT my take at this point.
So you don't think it'll be a big snow down there?
Mot right now. IF you want the snow Go visit Fodie in the Shenandoah valley.
Yeah! Come on up to enjoy the historic southern hospitality of Winchester, VA!

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- wxguy25
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Lowpressure wrote:Very solid and reasonable observations. I am in agreement with the 6 inch band with areas getting more. NWS D.C. seems to be getting very concerned with this event(s). The discussed "the upper end of a moderate snow event."
Thats just a rough estimate given the demand for some sort of clarity WRT this event. when I actually make a first call on this either tomorrow night or Friday morning those totals may increase two fold for SOME.
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- Lowpressure
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- wxguy25
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Lowpressure wrote:I am not sure what the upper end of moderate is in D.C. I know WSW come out at 4.5 inches in D.C. I know they are expecting considerably more than that in areas.
Event totals regardless should more than exceed LWX warning criteria. Even PHI 's 6" warning critera should be exceeded in most of it's zones as well as OKX's CWA. w/ QPF over 1" in some places and impressive ratios. But lets try NOT to explore this until tomorrow.
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- wxguy25
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Brent wrote:OK... do you think there will be any accumulation down in Eastern Tennessee? An inch or two? I'd rather not have a major snow anyway... don't want to be snowed in.
Sorry for being such a pest.
Possibly some. BUT too early to tell anything specific given the convoluted nature of todays model runs.
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- cycloneye
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Excellent discussion as always wxguy
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