Wxblog update...making sense of the model mess

[wxguy25]

http://www.wxguy.storm2k.org/wxblog/test_page.htm

[Brent]

Nice discussion.

[Fodie77]

When you say 12"+ in the mountains, do you mean the mid-atlantic interior?

[wxguy25]

When you say 12"+ in the mountains, do you mean the mid-atlantic interior?

Yep

[Brent]

What about down in Eastern Tennessee(the Smokies?)

[Fodie77]

When you say 12"+ in the mountains, do you mean the mid-atlantic interior?

Yep

Oh, in that case <gets down on knees> I hope you're right for us here in the valley.

[wxguy25]

What about down in Eastern Tennessee(the Smokies?)

IF you buy the GFS (which I dont) you could get some significant snow. Thats NOT my take at this point.

[Lowpressure]

Very solid and reasonable observations. I am in agreement with the 6 inch band with areas getting more. NWS D.C. seems to be getting very concerned with this event(s). The discussed "the upper end of a moderate snow event."

[Brent]

What about down in Eastern Tennessee(the Smokies?)

IF you buy the GFS (which I dont) you could get some significant snow. Thats NOT my take at this point.

So you don't think it'll be a big snow down there?

[wxguy25]

When you say 12"+ in the mountains, do you mean the mid-atlantic interior?

Yep

Oh, in that case <gets down on knees> I hope you're right for us here in the valley.

You could probably extend that up into the Potomac highlands and into the central Mountains of PA where you will have the ratios and Orographic component.

[wxguy25]

What about down in Eastern Tennessee(the Smokies?)

IF you buy the GFS (which I dont) you could get some significant snow. Thats NOT my take at this point.

So you don't think it'll be a big snow down there?

Not right now. IF you want the snow Go visit Fodie in the Shenandoah valley.

[Fodie77]

What about down in Eastern Tennessee(the Smokies?)

IF you buy the GFS (which I dont) you could get some significant snow. Thats NOT my take at this point.

So you don't think it'll be a big snow down there?

Mot right now. IF you want the snow Go visit Fodie in the Shenandoah valley.

Yeah! Come on up to enjoy the historic southern hospitality of Winchester, VA!

[wxguy25]

Very solid and reasonable observations. I am in agreement with the 6 inch band with areas getting more. NWS D.C. seems to be getting very concerned with this event(s). The discussed "the upper end of a moderate snow event."

Thats just a rough estimate given the demand for some sort of clarity WRT this event. when I actually make a first call on this either tomorrow night or Friday morning those totals may increase two fold for SOME.

[Brent]

OK... do you think there will be any accumulation down in Eastern Tennessee? An inch or two? I'd rather not have a major snow anyway... don't want to be snowed in.

Sorry for being such a pest.

[Lowpressure]

I am not sure what the upper end of moderate is in D.C. I know WSW come out at 4.5 inches in D.C. I know they are expecting considerably more than that in areas.

[wxguy25]

I am not sure what the upper end of moderate is in D.C. I know WSW come out at 4.5 inches in D.C. I know they are expecting considerably more than that in areas.

Event totals regardless should more than exceed LWX warning criteria. Even PHI 's 6" warning critera should be exceeded in most of it's zones as well as OKX's CWA. w/ QPF over 1" in some places and impressive ratios. But lets try NOT to explore this until tomorrow.

[wxguy25]

OK... do you think there will be any accumulation down in Eastern Tennessee? An inch or two? I'd rather not have a major snow anyway... don't want to be snowed in.

Sorry for being such a pest.

Possibly some. BUT too early to tell anything specific given the convoluted nature of todays model runs.

[Fodie77]

wxguy, which model do you think we should be focusing on come friday when the storm is on our doorstep?

[cycloneye]

Excellent discussion as always wxguy

[wxguy25]

wxguy, which model do you think we should be focusing on come friday when the storm is on our doorstep?

NAM, MM5, WRF, SREF.