Poll: How Many People Think S. Florida Will Get hit in 2005?

[StormChasr]

2004 was no fluke, nor was 1992

2004 WAS a fluke; it was a 200- 500 year event. The last time a similar occurence took place was 1886 in Texas. As regards 1992, well, it was a relatively INACTIVE hurricane season, with one anomaly--Andrew. So, was 1992 an "Inactive season" as one with that few storms would normally be? Of course not!!

[gatorcane]

Not trolling at all...I was actually in Tampa last summer. It's my humble opinion that S. Florida is long,long overdue and with a more active pattern over the next 20-40 years I will put money down that S. Florida will get hit, maybe not next year, but certainly no longer than 5 years. I do agree it's pointless to speculate where hurricanes are going to go months in advance but I wanted to get opinions from this forum.

[StormChasr]

Well, I hope you lose the bet, and South Florida gets spared. I wouldn't call it long overdue, since Andrew, Frances, and Jeanne were all South Florida Landfalls.

[Scorpion]

I think he means the great metro areas. They have been spared largely since Betsy. Andrew went over a less populated area, and Frances & Jeannes main cores did not affect Palm Beach as bad. We're long overdue for a major going right into the middle of the South Florida.

[Derek Ortt]

it is almost impossible for a metro area to be hit and one was hit last year, Orando with Charley.

Andrew did hit metro dade county. Just because something does not hit the center of the cuty, does not mean that the metro area was not hit. The metro area expands well away from the center

[Derek Ortt]

also, betsy made landfall in north largo, where there is about a whole 10 people living there. Explains why there was such little damage in SFLA (~100 million) from that cat 3

[gunner1551]

IMO there is a 100% chance that Florida will get hit. I dont know if anybody else shares this opinion but if this year is anything like last even in anyway I think it will turn out with Florida getting hit. The only good thing going right now is that the Atlantic is a little cooler then it was last year in some spots

[wayne56]

Let the fun began:

A. South Florida with the eye tracking WSW across the Northern keys around 25N into the South Central Gulf then into Old Mexico South of Brownville, TX.
B. Northern Florida coast around 29.5N moving just South of due West into the North Gulf continuing West across the Northern Gulf turning WNW into the Texas coast around Rockport.
A couple of predictions

[wxman57]

I think that Florida will be under the gun again in 2005. Perhaps one of the better analog years for 2005 will be 2004. Now I'm not saying Florida will be hit by EVERY storm this season. Last year was quite unusual in that respect. But signs are pointing to a moderate to strong Bermuda high in 2005, just like in 2004. The current pattern (which may persist for the next 20-30 years) indicates that the region from south Florida through the Carolinas is at high risk for landfall of a major hurricane. I'd pick that region for a major hurricane landfall in 2005. Will it be Florida? Maybe. It all depends on timing. The timing was bad for Florida last year. Next on the threat list is the Texas coast.

If you want to check Chris Landsea's web page for landfall threats anywhere on the US coast, check out this site:

http://www.e-transit.org/hurricane/map.asp

[cyclonaut]

I love all the speculation it makes for some good time killing but the reality is that nobody knows on the last day of March what is going to happen from June thru Nov.South Fla could get slammed by a CAT 5 or a hurricane will get nowhere near the area.Its fun to see people saying this or that but nobody knows!

In a few months we will hearing people say thats its a dead season & then we will get some activity & those same people will begin to panic & then it will quiet down again & they'll say its a boring season.I dont know about you but I see this season after season after season & it has gotten old.On March 31st no one here can predict who,when,where will get hit!

If I lived in a area where the water is warm & hurricanes have hit in the past I would always keep informed on the tropics.Yeah this means you South Fla.BTW Frances & Jeanne hit around FT.Pierce,thats not really part of South Fla.Having said that it really does not matter,if mother nature wants to send 3 hurricanes in the direction of Ft.Pierce and/or Miami she'll do it.The planet doesnt follow a rule book that says if such & such place got hit last year then that place cant get hit this year (See Indonesia).We are all @ the mercy of mother nature,we dont know what is going to happen tomorrow none the less 4 & 5 months from now so hold on tight & enjoy the ride.

[StormChasr]

Perhaps one of the better analog years for 2005 will be 2004

THAT'S ABSURD. How can an analog of any year be a 500 Year event? It is a virtual statistical IMPOSSIBILITY. Even given the EXACT same conditions, it would be almost impossible to get 4 hurricanes hitting any given place TWICE in two years.

[Huckster]

Perhaps one of the better analog years for 2005 will be 2004

THAT'S ABSURD. How can an analog of any year be a 500 Year event? It is a virtual statistical IMPOSSIBILITY. Even given the EXACT same conditions, it would be almost impossible to get 4 hurricanes hitting any given place TWICE in two years.

No one said that the four hurricanes hitting Florida was the analog. What he said was that one of the better analog YEARS might be 2004. An analog by definition is something that is similar in some aspects but different otherwise. This year's best analog could very well be 2004. If SST anomalies, development regions, and upper air patterns are very similar to last year's, then wouldn't it be reasonable to say that 2005 and 2004 are good analogs? Four hurricanes would not have to hit Florida in order for that reasoning to stand.

[Derek Ortt]

Chris,

contact me privately if you want to see some info regarding what caused the hurricanes to hit FL last year. I can say that it was definately NOT a Bermuda high, unblike was the case in 1992.

[weatherwindow]

after breaking out the crystal ball(which required considerable cleaning, i might add)....i envision two significant hits..both affecting south fla. my first proposed hit forms just north of the greater antilles, west of 75deg west and under an amplified ridge ahead of a slow moving, west-central gulf trough. rapidly intensifying, it impacts dade/broward as a cat 3 on a nnw track similiar to the storms of sept 1903 and 1935. my second candidate will be an early october cat2/3 forming between swan island and the caymans in the nw carib. moving slowly nnw, the system intensifies steadily to cat 3. approaching cabo san antonio, the track veers to the ne and, accelerateng, impacts the middle keys and dade/broward as a cat2/3......i am now putting the crystal ball away until i submit my seasonal numbers.......keep smiling ......rich

[gatorcane]

I'm not trolling. This is a valid topic and people better be ready in South Florida this year...here's BarometerBob's prediction that I completely support (the moderator for this forum).

This excerpt is taken from his post under "Hurricane Hollow Weather's 2005 Hurricane Season Prediction."

The GOM is surrounded by landmass, and any development is sure to create a land falling Tropical Cyclone.\par We have seen this past winter development of low pressures along the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) coast, and I don't see any reason why it won't continue. Plus, the fact of having Tropical Waves/Depressions/Storms/Hurricanes, entering the GOM from the Caribbean Sea and through the Florida Straits, we see the potential of a major land falling Tropical Cyclone develop/strengthen from this region as we saw in 2004.

....
The potential of 6 threats from Tropical Cyclones to the State of Florida. Of these, 2 from the Atlantic, 2 from the Gulf of Mexico, and 2 from the Caribbean.

[gatorcane]

Derrick, the hurricanes last year HAD EVERYTHING TO DO WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH. Any educated person on last year's hurricane season would know this!

Charley: swung between the SW periphery of the Bermuda high and a cold front in the northern Gulf.
Frances: Moved right along the Southern periphery of the Bermuda high.
There was more E-W ridging than usual, hence it did not turn
northwest until exiting the west coast of Florida.
Ivan: Move along the extreme southern and western periphery. In fact, the Bermuda high was much stronger than forecasters thought. Look how many times they shifted the track west. Originally it was supposed to hit the Dominican Republic!
Jean - Clearly the only one that almost beat out the Bermuda high but eventually the high won and pushed it west into FL. Actually, like Ivan, forecasters underestimated the power of the Bermuda high and kept having to adjust the forecast more west.

[Huckster]

This is just an observation, and maybe this is not the right thread for such comments, but here it is. I know there is probably a disproportionate number of people on this board from Florida, so it's understandable that there's a deep interest in what this season will bring as far as Florida is concerned. There is plenty of talk comparing what might happen this year to what did happen last year, analog years, and so on. That's also understandable, especially in light of last year's devastating hurricanes in Florida. Then there's also the matter of who is "due" to get hit, though it's not been a big deal in this particular thread, and I think that issue has been sufficiently addressed elsewhere. Here's my point though. Why is it that there is so seldom any extended discussion on lets say Texas, Louisiana, or Mexico storms? Hurricanes do hit there you know. I don't recall much if any discussion on the exact meteorological setup that would bring storms into the western Gulf, though I do know what sort of an environment must exist. I think there's just not as much interest in that topic, and I'm curious to know just why there's not any more interest in that topic, especially from the people living in those areas. I can't ever remember hearing or reading any comments during any year, especially in March, such as, "Yeah, Texas and Mexico, watch out this hurricane season" or "My guess is that Louisiana and Mississippi both get hurricanes this year, and major ones at that. They'll probably form just south of Jamaica." How can anyone possibly know that anyway? Whatever the case is, I doubt anyone in those areas will be caught off guard if a storm or two heads their way. If we actually are in a period like the 1940's to the 1960's, then there's reason to believe that activity in the western Gulf is likely to heat up at some point soon. I just wonder if in years to come we'll be hearing people trying to forecast storms into Texas in August while it's still March.

[vbhoutex]

Well if you haven't seen them about Texas or the set up that is "needed" for the storms to head our way here in Texas, then you haven't read some previous posts I have made concerning it. In fact I just read one yesterday I believe.
I think the "set-up" i s already there or almost there for more possible W GOM storms this year because it appears to me that the pattern is setting up in a more zonal flow that will make any fronts/troughs that get to the GOM or close to it during the season months to lie in a more E-W direction than they did last year. IMO the incoming troughs from the West last year were about the only thing that saved our neck of the woods from a major hit.

[Derek Ortt]

Wxman57 (the chris I was referring to), contact me privately, and I'll send you a couple of plots of the long-wave pattern for last September. There was a major change in that from Aug to Sep last year. Needless to sya when I plotted this data along with the storm tracks, I was totally shocked to find what I did

[vacanechaser]

This is just an observation, and maybe this is not the right thread for such comments, but here it is. I know there is probably a disproportionate number of people on this board from Florida, so it's understandable that there's a deep interest in what this season will bring as far as Florida is concerned. There is plenty of talk comparing what might happen this year to what did happen last year, analog years, and so on. That's also understandable, especially in light of last year's devastating hurricanes in Florida. Then there's also the matter of who is "due" to get hit, though it's not been a big deal in this particular thread, and I think that issue has been sufficiently addressed elsewhere. Here's my point though. Why is it that there is so seldom any extended discussion on lets say Texas, Louisiana, or Mexico storms? Hurricanes do hit there you know. I don't recall much if any discussion on the exact meteorological setup that would bring storms into the western Gulf, though I do know what sort of an environment must exist. I think there's just not as much interest in that topic, and I'm curious to know just why there's not any more interest in that topic, especially from the people living in those areas. I can't ever remember hearing or reading any comments during any year, especially in March, such as, "Yeah, Texas and Mexico, watch out this hurricane season" or "My guess is that Louisiana and Mississippi both get hurricanes this year, and major ones at that. They'll probably form just south of Jamaica." How can anyone possibly know that anyway? Whatever the case is, I doubt anyone in those areas will be caught off guard if a storm or two heads their way. If we actually are in a period like the 1940's to the 1960's, then there's reason to believe that activity in the western Gulf is likely to heat up at some point soon. I just wonder if in years to come we'll be hearing people trying to forecast storms into Texas in August while it's still March.

Well I think part of the concern with Florida is, yes, there is a lot of people on the board from Florida, however, the bulk of the activity occurs in the MDR during the peak months of August-September where major, long tracked storms continuing to develop could hit Florida. Yes the Gulf coast states see their share too. But it seems most of the talk refers to the MDR in those peak months. Thats just my guess. And whats funny about that is very little talk has been made about the Carolinas. Lets face it, since the up swing in hurricanes in 1995, North Carolina has been hit by more hurricane and tropical storms than Florida has. I just think its a case where the major canes have a better chance of hitting the sore thumb sticking out there coming from the MDR and making it as a major hurricane.