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[/code]Hurricane risk low on First Coast
South Florida and North Carolina have worst odds this season, researchers say
By RACHEL DAVIS, The Times-Union
Residents of South Florida and parts of North Carolina are more likely to experience hurricane-force winds this yearAlthough these areas are no stranger to the oceanic monsters, this year their vulnerability is supported by statistical data released Friday by a University of Central Florida professor and a Georgia researcher.
Miami Beach, Naples and Cape Hatteras, N.C., are statistically more likely to experience hurricane-force winds this season -- which begins Wednesday -- than any other of the 35 cities studied along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts, according to the study. The South Florida cities and the North Carolina cape have about a 10 percent chance of hosting a hurricane.
Jacksonville and St. Augustine have only a 1 to 2 percent chance. Savannah has a 3.44 percent chance.
The analysis is based on hurricane tracks during the past 154 years and ocean climate conditions for 2005. The study's authors claim the data are more useful for the average coastal resident than the preseason storm counts coming out of weather-watching organizations.
Last year people "didn't really care how many storms there were," said Mark Johnson, a UCF statistics professor. "It was 'What's the wind speed ... at my house?'"
The research was conducted by Johnson and Chuck Watson, founder of the Kinetic Analysis Corp., a Savannah, Ga., engineering firm.
They began their hurricane research in 1996 but are releasing their findings to the public this year for the first time. The pair also works as consultants to the Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology, which verifies hurricane models for government agencies and the insurance industry.
Johnson said they will update on specific storms throughout the season on their Web site.
This year's hurricane likelihoods, according to the study, aren't that far from historical trends. For example, New Orleans is more likely to have a hurricane than Jacksonville, and Miami is more likely to get hit than New Orleans.
Although South Florida is always at higher risk than North Florida, this year the odds for South Florida are above average, with Miami, Fort Lauderdale and Naples at about a 1-in-10 chance. The odds of hurricane-force winds hitting cities in Georgia, North Florida and along the Gulf Coast are lower than normal.
Just because the odds are low for a certain area doesn't mean it won't be hit. For example, Pensacola has on average only a 5 percent chance of seeing hurricane-force winds. But the Northwest Florida city was ravaged last year by Hurricane Ivan.
Frank Lepore, spokesman for the National Hurricane Center, said Floridians should prepare for a hurricane whether they live in the south or the north.
"I'm sure the residents of Central Florida weren't expecting Frances and Jeanne and what was left of Charley, but they were certainly impacted," Lepore said.
Although the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is predicting an active hurricane season, it cannot say where the storms will make landfall. The agency expects at least seven storms, with at least three becoming major hurricanes. Most are expected to form between August and October over the tropical Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea.
