And also says that global warming can't account for the increased Atlantic activity as if there was global warming, EPAC, Indian Ocean, etc. would have increased activity as well....
The increase in hurricanes over the last decade has prompted some scientists to cite global warming as the cause -- a theory the authors of the 2005 hurricane forecast do not buy.
"If global warming were the cause of the increase in United States hurricane landfalls in 2004 and the overall increase in Atlantic basin major hurricane activity of the past ten years (1995-2004), one would expect to see an increase in tropical cyclone activity in the other storm basins as well (i.e., West Pacific, East Pacific, Indian Ocean, etc.)," the report said. "This has not occurred.
"When tropical cyclones worldwide are summed, there has actually been a slight decrease since 1995."
http://www.cnn.com/2005/WEATHER/05/31/c ... index.html
Hurricane activity worldwide on the decline-CSU
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Another interesting and pretty well balanced article on the question of whether or not there is any connection between global warming and recent hurricane activity:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/8046526/
I'm pretty solidly with Dr. Landsea in concluding that the warming we have had to date has not had any significant effect on either hurricane intensity or frequency.
OTOH, there's strong indication that as warming becomes more pronounced over the next century that this should have significant impact on intensity (and with less confidence frequency) of storms.
Jan
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/8046526/
MIAMI - If hurricanes again pound the United States this summer, their roar is likely to be accompanied by the din of another storm — an angry debate among U.S. scientists over the impact of global warming.
Last season’s $45 billion devastation, when 15 tropical storms spawned nine hurricanes in the Atlantic and Caribbean, prompted some climatologists to warn of a link to warming temperatures.
But hurricane experts say the unusual series of hurricanes, four of which slammed into Florida in a six-week period, was the result of a natural 15- to 40-year cycle in Atlantic cyclone activity.
<snip>
I'm pretty solidly with Dr. Landsea in concluding that the warming we have had to date has not had any significant effect on either hurricane intensity or frequency.
OTOH, there's strong indication that as warming becomes more pronounced over the next century that this should have significant impact on intensity (and with less confidence frequency) of storms.
Jan
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