96L for Caribbean System

[wxman57]

ship reports must always be taken with a grain of salt especially out of the blue (i.e. the first and only report of the day)

Yep, ship reports should always be questioned. But they shouldn't be discarded because one is hoping for development and the ship report doesn't support development. Not that anyone here would be hoping for development.

[wxman57]

Of course things always change, but for us in the parched Houston area you have gotta love the BAMD track. Perfect setup for getting wet.

Bring it on!!!!!!

Yeah, a Victoria to Freeport hit would bring us some well-needed rain. But if landfall is this far north, it could be a hurricane!

[tw861]

Of course things always change, but for us in the parched Houston area you have gotta love the BAMD track. Perfect setup for getting wet.

Bring it on!!!!!!

Yeah, a Victoria to Freeport hit would bring us some well-needed rain. But if landfall is this far north, it could be a hurricane!

Yep, I know but I'll take may chances. Selfish huh.

[drezee]

ship reports must always be taken with a grain of salt especially out of the blue (i.e. the first and only report of the day)

Yep, ship reports should always be questioned. But they shouldn't be discarded because one is hoping for development and the ship report doesn't support development. Not that anyone here would be hoping for development.

Agreed, they should be used in conjunction with other more reliable data (i.e. NOA Buoys), but should not supercede them.

[Ivanhater]

all things seem a go for this, only thing i can think of that would hinder this would be land if it took a more westward path

[wxman57]

all things seem a go for this, only thing i can think of that would hinder this would be land if it took a more westward path

I am in agreement with that statement.

[HURAKAN]

Looks better organized!

[vbhoutex]

ABNT20 KNHC 022104
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SAT JUL 2 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE LARGE AREA
OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN IS CONTINUING
TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN HONDURAS AND THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ALSO GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE
FAVORABLE...AND SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO
15 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...JAMAICA
...CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY...IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART

[loon]

go recon go

[wxman57]

Here's a 21Z satellite from our floater. I circled the area where an LLC may try to form in red. That's close to 18N/84.5W. By this time tomorrow, that area will likely be inland over the Yucatan. so don't get your hopes up too much for tomorrow. Monday/Tuesday will be quite interesting, though.

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/carib10.gif">

[Stratosphere747]

Of course things always change, but for us in the parched Houston area you have gotta love the BAMD track. Perfect setup for getting wet.

Bring it on!!!!!!

Yeah, a Victoria to Freeport hit would bring us some well-needed rain. But if landfall is this far north, it could be a hurricane!

Besides the needed rain...

A bit of extra wave action would be nice, just to clean up the seaweed. I've never seen it as bad as this year in the Surfside/Freeport area.

[tailgater]

ABNT20 KNHC 022104
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SAT JUL 2 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE LARGE AREA
OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN IS CONTINUING
TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN HONDURAS AND THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ALSO GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE
FAVORABLE...AND SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO
15 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...JAMAICA
...CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY...IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART

The TPC must think it's got a decent chance by tomorrow.

[Ivanhater]

one thing I've noticed is, the TPC hasnt mentioned proximity to land, i would have thought they would mention that as in the case with bret

[senorpepr]

one thing I've noticed is, the TPC hasnt mentioned proximity to land, i would have thought they would mention that as in the case with bret

Well, right now model guidance has 96L over water for a few days whereas with Bret, they knew it was going inland within several hours.

[Anonymous]

I just hope we dry dry Texans get get a few soakers out of this.

[Ivanhater]

i was under the assumption it was heading toward the Yucatan soon, if not this thing could be off and running before no time

[senorpepr]

Although the Yucatan may slow things down, it would be short-lived as the storm enters the GOM, unlike Bret who was headed into central Mexico.

[tailgater]

ship reports must always be taken with a grain of salt especially out of the blue (i.e. the first and only report of the day)

Yep, ship reports should always be questioned. But they shouldn't be discarded because one is hoping for development and the ship report doesn't support development. Not that anyone here would be hoping for development.

Looking at the sat. pics in time lapse there was a T-storm blowing up just to the east of the ship report at that time, possible reason for east winds at that location?

[Javlin]

Looks interesting to say the least.We have an ULL entering the BOC(WNW->) and one crossing W Cuba(NW->).Then there is a front cutting across the CONUS up about OK and WY area(LBAR maybe).The system cannot go thru the ULL's but around them.See how the timing goes

[wxman57]

Although the Yucatan may slow things down, it would be short-lived as the storm enters the GOM, unlike Bret who was headed into central Mexico.

Use the BAM models with caution north of 20N and with a system that hasn't developed a deep circulation yet. The BAMM and BAMD are not dynamic models, meaning they don't take into consideration changes in the upper level winds in the future. So these Beta and Advection Models do best in the lower tropics where highs/lows/trofs/ridges don't come into play (or don't move much in 3-5 days).

What they see now are mid and upper-level winds around an upper low over the Yucatan Peninsula, thus the NW track toward the northern Yucatan. But the wave isn't developing/hasn't developed yet. Therefore, it will likely track more to the WNW early on, taking it inland within 24 hours a good bit south of where the BAM models indicate.

My best estimate would be a developing LLC impacting the Yucatan near 19N vs. 21N for the BAMs.