Joe B thoughts on TD 4 is scary

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
KatDaddy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2815
Joined: Mon Oct 21, 2002 6:23 pm
Location: League City, Texas

Joe B thoughts on TD 4 is scary

#1 Postby KatDaddy » Tue Jul 05, 2005 7:52 am

Formidable hurricane off the LA Coast down the road. Joe thinks it will be much further W than what current models are showing. Everyone from TEXAS E to FLORIDA will need to watch this system.

IMO this will be another very large Allen, Carla, Gilbert type system. Wow its early in the year for this type of system.
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
bfez1
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6548
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:14 am
Location: Meraux--10 mi E of New Orleans-totally destroyed by Katrina
Contact:
Contact bfez1

#2 Postby bfez1 » Tue Jul 05, 2005 7:54 am

Right now, we just need to escape Cindy here in the New Orleans area.
One storm at a time please :D
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
crazycajuncane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1097
Joined: Sun Aug 15, 2004 2:51 pm
Location: Lafayette, Louisiana
Contact:
Contact crazycajuncane

#3 Postby crazycajuncane » Tue Jul 05, 2005 7:58 am

They come in fours. That's the latest trend!
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
skysummit
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5305
Age: 49
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 11:09 pm
Location: Ponchatoula, LA
Contact:
Contact skysummit

#4 Postby skysummit » Tue Jul 05, 2005 8:13 am

crazycajuncane wrote:They come in fours. That's the latest trend!


LOL...that's funny. I guess this will just be our "practice" run.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cajungal
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2336
Age: 49
Joined: Sun Mar 14, 2004 9:34 pm
Location: Schriever, Louisiana (60 miles southwest of New Orleans)

Re: Joe B thoughts on TD 4 is scary

#5 Postby cajungal » Tue Jul 05, 2005 8:16 am

KatDaddy wrote:Formidable hurricane off the LA Coast down the road. Joe thinks it will be much further W than what current models are showing. Everyone from TEXAS E to FLORIDA will need to watch this system.

IMO this will be another very large Allen, Carla, Gilbert type system. Wow its early in the year for this type of system.
Yikes! I was thinking the same thing too. One model has it hitting Key Largo, Florida. Then, one is pointing near the Louisiana coast after Key Largo. Hmmm..... Betsy? Hope it will stay minimal hurricane.
0 likes   
Top
Patrick99
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1772
Joined: Mon May 24, 2004 3:43 pm
Location: SW Broward, FL

#6 Postby Patrick99 » Tue Jul 05, 2005 8:22 am

I think I agree with Joe B...if it's gonna get in the vicinity of the FL Keys, I want to see more of a northward component. Reminds me of Charley and Ivan when everyone was insisting on a WNW movement while clearly moving due west.

Sitting in my chair here in Miami, the high seems rather strong - I'm basing this conclusion on looking out the window. There aren't many cloud-free mornings in the summer months.
0 likes   
Top
jeff
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 831
Joined: Sun Sep 12, 2004 6:14 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:
Contact jeff

#7 Postby jeff » Tue Jul 05, 2005 8:22 am

The GFS run is way to the west this morning.

Latest guidance cluster is also more to the west, now a decent distance off the FL west coast.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
fci
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3324
Joined: Tue Sep 14, 2004 10:29 am
Location: Lake Worth, FL

#8 Postby fci » Tue Jul 05, 2005 8:26 am

Patrick99 wrote:I think I agree with Joe B...if it's gonna get in the vicinity of the FL Keys, I want to see more of a northward component. Reminds me of Charley and Ivan when everyone was insisting on a WNW movement while clearly moving due west.

Sitting in my chair here in Miami, the high seems rather strong - I'm basing this conclusion on looking out the window. There aren't many cloud-free mornings in the summer months.


Exactly, I agree and have been saying so since last night.
Living here in SE Fla, we have seen this time and time again.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Bocadude85
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2990
Age: 39
Joined: Mon Apr 18, 2005 2:20 pm
Location: Honolulu,Hi

#9 Postby Bocadude85 » Tue Jul 05, 2005 8:32 am

There is a different setup now then when there was with Ivan, the ridge will be eroded alowing this to take a wnw track and then eventually nw track, this is going to be a close call for the fla keys, just my opinion though
0 likes   
Top
GalvestonDuck
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 15941
Age: 57
Joined: Fri Oct 11, 2002 8:11 am
Location: Galveston, oh Galveston (And yeah, it's a barrier island. Wanna make something of it?)

#10 Postby GalvestonDuck » Tue Jul 05, 2005 8:33 am

I have to wonder about this one also.

#3/Cindy didn't have me worried. I figured the path might change after she got past the YP, but I was looking forward to the rain.

However, with #4, it looks to me like it wouldn't turn east into the FL panhandle or anywhere near there. Wouldn't the Bermuda high continue to steer it westward, thus making it threat for W GOMers?
0 likes   
Top
Rainband

#11 Postby Rainband » Tue Jul 05, 2005 8:33 am

All rides on the ridge.
0 likes   
Top
jlauderdal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 7240
Joined: Wed May 19, 2004 5:46 am
Location: NE Fort Lauderdale
Contact:
Contact jlauderdal

#12 Postby jlauderdal » Tue Jul 05, 2005 8:39 am

fci wrote:
Patrick99 wrote:I think I agree with Joe B...if it's gonna get in the vicinity of the FL Keys, I want to see more of a northward component. Reminds me of Charley and Ivan when everyone was insisting on a WNW movement while clearly moving due west.

Sitting in my chair here in Miami, the high seems rather strong - I'm basing this conclusion on looking out the window. There aren't many cloud-free mornings in the summer months.


Exactly, I agree and have been saying so since last night.
Living here in SE Fla, we have seen this time and time again.


We will be on the dirty side but how dirty depends omn how close and I think each day it will track farther and farther away...climatology wins again.
0 likes   
Top
Duffy
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 294
Joined: Sat Aug 28, 2004 5:58 pm
Location: Brunswick, Maine, USA

#13 Postby Duffy » Tue Jul 05, 2005 8:48 am

WOw What a season so far!!!! Does this mean we're going to have waves coming off the Coast of Africa every other day turning into Hurricanes, like a Train? lol
0 likes   
Top
Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38266
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:
Contact Brent

#14 Postby Brent » Tue Jul 05, 2005 8:51 am

Duffy wrote:WOw What a season so far!!!! Does this mean we're going to have waves coming off the Coast of Africa every other day turning into Hurricanes, like a Train? lol


It's happened before... defintely a good chance of that.
0 likes   
#neversummer
Top
User avatar
T-man
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 240
Joined: Mon Jul 04, 2005 10:57 am
Location: Lafitte, LA

#15 Postby T-man » Tue Jul 05, 2005 8:55 am

I'll take a Cindy smashing me in the mouth but Dennis will not be welcome.
0 likes   
Top
Rainband

#16 Postby Rainband » Tue Jul 05, 2005 8:55 am

T-man wrote:I'll take a Cindy smashing me in the mouth but Dennis will not be welcome.
Just be prepared. Watch the news and hope for the best. Too early to tell where he is going to end up. :wink:
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cajungal
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2336
Age: 49
Joined: Sun Mar 14, 2004 9:34 pm
Location: Schriever, Louisiana (60 miles southwest of New Orleans)

#17 Postby cajungal » Tue Jul 05, 2005 9:03 am

Rainband wrote:
T-man wrote:I'll take a Cindy smashing me in the mouth but Dennis will not be welcome.
Just be prepared. Watch the news and hope for the best. Too early to tell where he is going to end up. :wink:
No, it is not. All you have to do is ask Miss Cleo and she will tell you exactly where soon to be Dennis is going.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
HurryKane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1941
Joined: Sun Sep 12, 2004 8:08 pm
Location: Diamondhead, Mississippi

#18 Postby HurryKane » Tue Jul 05, 2005 9:22 am

cajungal wrote:
Rainband wrote:
T-man wrote:I'll take a Cindy smashing me in the mouth but Dennis will not be welcome.
Just be prepared. Watch the news and hope for the best. Too early to tell where he is going to end up. :wink:
No, it is not. All you have to do is ask Miss Cleo and she will tell you exactly where soon to be Dennis is going.


Hey now, don't knock Miss Cleo. In a sea of really boring 3:00 AM TV, she was a nice change of humorous pace :) A little tropical disturbance on her own if you will.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
dhweather
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6199
Joined: Sat Aug 14, 2004 9:29 pm
Location: Heath, TX
Contact:
Contact dhweather

#19 Postby dhweather » Tue Jul 05, 2005 9:24 am

Rainband wrote:
T-man wrote:I'll take a Cindy smashing me in the mouth but Dennis will not be welcome.
Just be prepared. Watch the news and hope for the best. Too early to tell where he is going to end up. :wink:


Exactly.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
skysummit
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5305
Age: 49
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 11:09 pm
Location: Ponchatoula, LA
Contact:
Contact skysummit

#20 Postby skysummit » Tue Jul 05, 2005 9:26 am

Rainband wrote:All rides on the ridge.


Once Cindy comes through and skidaddles her way to the NE, wouldn't that allow the ridge to build in a little stronger? Please correct me if this is incorrect.

NOLA has escapped too many storms and have evacuated too many times for no reason. I'm getting worried that TD4 makes it into the Gulf, threatens the Central Gulf Coast, and people in NOLA won't take it serious.
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 695 guests