Joe B thoughts on TD 4 is scary

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KatDaddy
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Joe B thoughts on TD 4 is scary

#1 Postby KatDaddy » Tue Jul 05, 2005 7:52 am

Formidable hurricane off the LA Coast down the road. Joe thinks it will be much further W than what current models are showing. Everyone from TEXAS E to FLORIDA will need to watch this system.

IMO this will be another very large Allen, Carla, Gilbert type system. Wow its early in the year for this type of system.
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#2 Postby bfez1 » Tue Jul 05, 2005 7:54 am

Right now, we just need to escape Cindy here in the New Orleans area.
One storm at a time please :D
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#3 Postby crazycajuncane » Tue Jul 05, 2005 7:58 am

They come in fours. That's the latest trend!
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#4 Postby skysummit » Tue Jul 05, 2005 8:13 am

crazycajuncane wrote:They come in fours. That's the latest trend!


LOL...that's funny. I guess this will just be our "practice" run.
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Re: Joe B thoughts on TD 4 is scary

#5 Postby cajungal » Tue Jul 05, 2005 8:16 am

KatDaddy wrote:Formidable hurricane off the LA Coast down the road. Joe thinks it will be much further W than what current models are showing. Everyone from TEXAS E to FLORIDA will need to watch this system.

IMO this will be another very large Allen, Carla, Gilbert type system. Wow its early in the year for this type of system.
Yikes! I was thinking the same thing too. One model has it hitting Key Largo, Florida. Then, one is pointing near the Louisiana coast after Key Largo. Hmmm..... Betsy? Hope it will stay minimal hurricane.
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#6 Postby Patrick99 » Tue Jul 05, 2005 8:22 am

I think I agree with Joe B...if it's gonna get in the vicinity of the FL Keys, I want to see more of a northward component. Reminds me of Charley and Ivan when everyone was insisting on a WNW movement while clearly moving due west.

Sitting in my chair here in Miami, the high seems rather strong - I'm basing this conclusion on looking out the window. There aren't many cloud-free mornings in the summer months.
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#7 Postby jeff » Tue Jul 05, 2005 8:22 am

The GFS run is way to the west this morning.

Latest guidance cluster is also more to the west, now a decent distance off the FL west coast.
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#8 Postby fci » Tue Jul 05, 2005 8:26 am

Patrick99 wrote:I think I agree with Joe B...if it's gonna get in the vicinity of the FL Keys, I want to see more of a northward component. Reminds me of Charley and Ivan when everyone was insisting on a WNW movement while clearly moving due west.

Sitting in my chair here in Miami, the high seems rather strong - I'm basing this conclusion on looking out the window. There aren't many cloud-free mornings in the summer months.


Exactly, I agree and have been saying so since last night.
Living here in SE Fla, we have seen this time and time again.
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#9 Postby Bocadude85 » Tue Jul 05, 2005 8:32 am

There is a different setup now then when there was with Ivan, the ridge will be eroded alowing this to take a wnw track and then eventually nw track, this is going to be a close call for the fla keys, just my opinion though
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#10 Postby GalvestonDuck » Tue Jul 05, 2005 8:33 am

I have to wonder about this one also.

#3/Cindy didn't have me worried. I figured the path might change after she got past the YP, but I was looking forward to the rain.

However, with #4, it looks to me like it wouldn't turn east into the FL panhandle or anywhere near there. Wouldn't the Bermuda high continue to steer it westward, thus making it threat for W GOMers?
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#11 Postby Rainband » Tue Jul 05, 2005 8:33 am

All rides on the ridge.
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#12 Postby jlauderdal » Tue Jul 05, 2005 8:39 am

fci wrote:
Patrick99 wrote:I think I agree with Joe B...if it's gonna get in the vicinity of the FL Keys, I want to see more of a northward component. Reminds me of Charley and Ivan when everyone was insisting on a WNW movement while clearly moving due west.

Sitting in my chair here in Miami, the high seems rather strong - I'm basing this conclusion on looking out the window. There aren't many cloud-free mornings in the summer months.


Exactly, I agree and have been saying so since last night.
Living here in SE Fla, we have seen this time and time again.


We will be on the dirty side but how dirty depends omn how close and I think each day it will track farther and farther away...climatology wins again.
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#13 Postby Duffy » Tue Jul 05, 2005 8:48 am

WOw What a season so far!!!! Does this mean we're going to have waves coming off the Coast of Africa every other day turning into Hurricanes, like a Train? lol
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#14 Postby Brent » Tue Jul 05, 2005 8:51 am

Duffy wrote:WOw What a season so far!!!! Does this mean we're going to have waves coming off the Coast of Africa every other day turning into Hurricanes, like a Train? lol


It's happened before... defintely a good chance of that.
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#15 Postby T-man » Tue Jul 05, 2005 8:55 am

I'll take a Cindy smashing me in the mouth but Dennis will not be welcome.
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#16 Postby Rainband » Tue Jul 05, 2005 8:55 am

T-man wrote:I'll take a Cindy smashing me in the mouth but Dennis will not be welcome.
Just be prepared. Watch the news and hope for the best. Too early to tell where he is going to end up. :wink:
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#17 Postby cajungal » Tue Jul 05, 2005 9:03 am

Rainband wrote:
T-man wrote:I'll take a Cindy smashing me in the mouth but Dennis will not be welcome.
Just be prepared. Watch the news and hope for the best. Too early to tell where he is going to end up. :wink:
No, it is not. All you have to do is ask Miss Cleo and she will tell you exactly where soon to be Dennis is going.
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#18 Postby HurryKane » Tue Jul 05, 2005 9:22 am

cajungal wrote:
Rainband wrote:
T-man wrote:I'll take a Cindy smashing me in the mouth but Dennis will not be welcome.
Just be prepared. Watch the news and hope for the best. Too early to tell where he is going to end up. :wink:
No, it is not. All you have to do is ask Miss Cleo and she will tell you exactly where soon to be Dennis is going.


Hey now, don't knock Miss Cleo. In a sea of really boring 3:00 AM TV, she was a nice change of humorous pace :) A little tropical disturbance on her own if you will.
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#19 Postby dhweather » Tue Jul 05, 2005 9:24 am

Rainband wrote:
T-man wrote:I'll take a Cindy smashing me in the mouth but Dennis will not be welcome.
Just be prepared. Watch the news and hope for the best. Too early to tell where he is going to end up. :wink:


Exactly.
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#20 Postby skysummit » Tue Jul 05, 2005 9:26 am

Rainband wrote:All rides on the ridge.


Once Cindy comes through and skidaddles her way to the NE, wouldn't that allow the ridge to build in a little stronger? Please correct me if this is incorrect.

NOLA has escapped too many storms and have evacuated too many times for no reason. I'm getting worried that TD4 makes it into the Gulf, threatens the Central Gulf Coast, and people in NOLA won't take it serious.
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