00:00z Tropical Model guidance=983 mbs,Moving 300 12kts

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 148503
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

00:00z Tropical Model guidance=983 mbs,Moving 300 12kts

#1 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 06, 2005 7:37 pm

HURRICANE DENNIS (AL042005) ON 20050707 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050707 0000 050707 1200 050708 0000 050708 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.3N 72.9W 17.5N 75.2W 18.9N 77.3W 20.4N 79.6W
BAMM 16.3N 72.9W 17.8N 75.5W 19.3N 78.0W 20.7N 80.7W
A98E 16.3N 72.9W 17.5N 75.0W 18.9N 77.0W 20.6N 78.8W
LBAR 16.3N 72.9W 17.7N 75.3W 19.3N 77.9W 20.9N 80.2W
SHIP 70KTS 82KTS 92KTS 97KTS
DSHP 70KTS 82KTS 92KTS 97KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050709 0000 050710 0000 050711 0000 050712 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 21.8N 81.7W 25.1N 85.3W 29.7N 89.3W 34.6N 93.8W
BAMM 22.0N 82.9W 24.6N 86.4W 27.9N 89.6W 32.0N 92.7W
A98E 22.6N 80.8W 26.3N 85.0W 30.6N 88.7W 33.0N 93.9W
LBAR 22.6N 82.2W 26.3N 85.0W 30.6N 88.0W 33.4N 93.5W
SHIP 103KTS 107KTS 99KTS 87KTS
DSHP 103KTS 100KTS 93KTS 51KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.3N LONCUR = 72.9W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 15.1N LONM12 = 70.9W DIRM12 = 296DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 14.3N LONM24 = 68.5W
WNDCUR = 70KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 55KT
CENPRS = 983MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 250NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 110NM RD34SE = 80NM RD34SW = 30NM RD34NW = 100NM

Image

Refresh grafic to see the latest 00:00z run.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Radar
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 425
Joined: Fri Aug 27, 2004 11:04 pm
Location: Biloxi,MS

#2 Postby Radar » Wed Jul 06, 2005 7:40 pm

WOW, the models are really coming together now toward a central track..
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
dhweather
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6199
Joined: Sat Aug 14, 2004 9:29 pm
Location: Heath, TX
Contact:
Contact dhweather

#3 Postby dhweather » Wed Jul 06, 2005 7:40 pm

Thanks for posting this Luis!

It's looking like SE LA is going to see its probabilities raised at 11 PM,
and the new evacuation plans will get their first test this weekend.
I believe that 50 hours out, the evacuations are to commence in
extreme South Louisiana - so that might be as early as Friday!
0 likes   
Top
Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38266
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:
Contact Brent

#4 Postby Brent » Wed Jul 06, 2005 7:41 pm

MS/AL??? Guess the westward shift has stopped for now. Also very close to Extreme Eastern LA.
Last edited by Brent on Wed Jul 06, 2005 7:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
#neversummer
Top
gkrangers

#5 Postby gkrangers » Wed Jul 06, 2005 7:41 pm

The UKMET definitely has a grudge against Nawlins...maybe it lost its shirt in the casinos?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 148503
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#6 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 06, 2005 7:41 pm

Ok the grafic is now updated.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 148503
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#7 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 06, 2005 7:45 pm

Trending more west at this latest run.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38266
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:
Contact Brent

#8 Postby Brent » Wed Jul 06, 2005 7:46 pm

Don't think I've ever seen a left turn like that for a landfalling GOM system. Interesting.
0 likes   
#neversummer
Top
User avatar
reeef
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 70
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 7:24 pm
Location: Galveston Texas

#9 Postby reeef » Wed Jul 06, 2005 7:47 pm

what are you talking about left turn?
0 likes   
Top
jkt21787
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2061
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 5:27 pm
Location: Memphis, TN

#10 Postby jkt21787 » Wed Jul 06, 2005 7:47 pm

Brent wrote:Don't think I've ever seen a left turn like that for a landfalling GOM system. Interesting.

One of them is our good friend, 98E. LBAR is the other. Doubt that happens (ridge would have to be really building I assume)
0 likes   
Top
jkt21787
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2061
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 5:27 pm
Location: Memphis, TN

#11 Postby jkt21787 » Wed Jul 06, 2005 7:48 pm

reeef wrote:what are you talking about left turn?

The purple (LBAR) and yellow (98E) tracks go hard left at the last data point inland over LA.
0 likes   
Top
gkrangers

#12 Postby gkrangers » Wed Jul 06, 2005 7:48 pm

BAMs cannot be trusted.

I have to concur with the UKIE at this time.
0 likes   
Top
jkt21787
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2061
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 5:27 pm
Location: Memphis, TN

#13 Postby jkt21787 » Wed Jul 06, 2005 7:49 pm

gkrangers wrote:BAMs cannot be trusted.

I have to concur with the UKIE at this time.

UKMET has been pretty consistent as of late so I am putting some additional trust in it at this point.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
reeef
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 70
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 7:24 pm
Location: Galveston Texas

#14 Postby reeef » Wed Jul 06, 2005 7:50 pm

so is it now taking the NW turn or still gonna go back to west/nw
0 likes   
Top
gkrangers

#15 Postby gkrangers » Wed Jul 06, 2005 7:51 pm

Heh...6 models on that plot...the BAMs, LBAR, and 98E cannot be trusted. And I trust the UKMET more than the GFDL.
0 likes   
Top
jkt21787
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2061
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 5:27 pm
Location: Memphis, TN

#16 Postby jkt21787 » Wed Jul 06, 2005 7:53 pm

reeef wrote:so is it now taking the NW turn or still gonna go back to west/nw

Its still WNW as of now.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
reeef
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 70
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 7:24 pm
Location: Galveston Texas

#17 Postby reeef » Wed Jul 06, 2005 7:53 pm

should we suspect the models to move west agian?
0 likes   
Top
jkt21787
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2061
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 5:27 pm
Location: Memphis, TN

#18 Postby jkt21787 » Wed Jul 06, 2005 7:54 pm

reeef wrote:should we suspect the models to move west agian?

They could and I certainly wouldn't be surprised. This far out things can change a lot.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
deltadog03
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3580
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2005 6:16 pm
Location: Macon, GA

#19 Postby deltadog03 » Wed Jul 06, 2005 7:54 pm

hey don't forget about the GFS...consistant for a couple of days now...Central LA
0 likes   
Top
gkrangers

#20 Postby gkrangers » Wed Jul 06, 2005 7:55 pm

deltadog03 wrote:hey don't forget about the GFS...consistant for a couple of days now...Central LA
I agree.

NAM and Canadian are out to lunch, dinner, breakfast, lunch, dinner, breakfast, lunch, dinner....
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 340 guests