00:00z Tropical Model guidance=983 mbs,Moving 300 12kts

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cycloneye
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00:00z Tropical Model guidance=983 mbs,Moving 300 12kts

#1 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 06, 2005 7:37 pm

HURRICANE DENNIS (AL042005) ON 20050707 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050707 0000 050707 1200 050708 0000 050708 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.3N 72.9W 17.5N 75.2W 18.9N 77.3W 20.4N 79.6W
BAMM 16.3N 72.9W 17.8N 75.5W 19.3N 78.0W 20.7N 80.7W
A98E 16.3N 72.9W 17.5N 75.0W 18.9N 77.0W 20.6N 78.8W
LBAR 16.3N 72.9W 17.7N 75.3W 19.3N 77.9W 20.9N 80.2W
SHIP 70KTS 82KTS 92KTS 97KTS
DSHP 70KTS 82KTS 92KTS 97KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050709 0000 050710 0000 050711 0000 050712 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 21.8N 81.7W 25.1N 85.3W 29.7N 89.3W 34.6N 93.8W
BAMM 22.0N 82.9W 24.6N 86.4W 27.9N 89.6W 32.0N 92.7W
A98E 22.6N 80.8W 26.3N 85.0W 30.6N 88.7W 33.0N 93.9W
LBAR 22.6N 82.2W 26.3N 85.0W 30.6N 88.0W 33.4N 93.5W
SHIP 103KTS 107KTS 99KTS 87KTS
DSHP 103KTS 100KTS 93KTS 51KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.3N LONCUR = 72.9W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 15.1N LONM12 = 70.9W DIRM12 = 296DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 14.3N LONM24 = 68.5W
WNDCUR = 70KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 55KT
CENPRS = 983MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 250NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 110NM RD34SE = 80NM RD34SW = 30NM RD34NW = 100NM

Image

Refresh grafic to see the latest 00:00z run.
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#2 Postby Radar » Wed Jul 06, 2005 7:40 pm

WOW, the models are really coming together now toward a central track..
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#3 Postby dhweather » Wed Jul 06, 2005 7:40 pm

Thanks for posting this Luis!

It's looking like SE LA is going to see its probabilities raised at 11 PM,
and the new evacuation plans will get their first test this weekend.
I believe that 50 hours out, the evacuations are to commence in
extreme South Louisiana - so that might be as early as Friday!
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#4 Postby Brent » Wed Jul 06, 2005 7:41 pm

MS/AL??? Guess the westward shift has stopped for now. Also very close to Extreme Eastern LA.
Last edited by Brent on Wed Jul 06, 2005 7:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#5 Postby gkrangers » Wed Jul 06, 2005 7:41 pm

The UKMET definitely has a grudge against Nawlins...maybe it lost its shirt in the casinos?
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#6 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 06, 2005 7:41 pm

Ok the grafic is now updated.
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#7 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 06, 2005 7:45 pm

Trending more west at this latest run.
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#8 Postby Brent » Wed Jul 06, 2005 7:46 pm

Don't think I've ever seen a left turn like that for a landfalling GOM system. Interesting.
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#9 Postby reeef » Wed Jul 06, 2005 7:47 pm

what are you talking about left turn?
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#10 Postby jkt21787 » Wed Jul 06, 2005 7:47 pm

Brent wrote:Don't think I've ever seen a left turn like that for a landfalling GOM system. Interesting.

One of them is our good friend, 98E. LBAR is the other. Doubt that happens (ridge would have to be really building I assume)
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#11 Postby jkt21787 » Wed Jul 06, 2005 7:48 pm

reeef wrote:what are you talking about left turn?

The purple (LBAR) and yellow (98E) tracks go hard left at the last data point inland over LA.
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#12 Postby gkrangers » Wed Jul 06, 2005 7:48 pm

BAMs cannot be trusted.

I have to concur with the UKIE at this time.
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#13 Postby jkt21787 » Wed Jul 06, 2005 7:49 pm

gkrangers wrote:BAMs cannot be trusted.

I have to concur with the UKIE at this time.

UKMET has been pretty consistent as of late so I am putting some additional trust in it at this point.
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#14 Postby reeef » Wed Jul 06, 2005 7:50 pm

so is it now taking the NW turn or still gonna go back to west/nw
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#15 Postby gkrangers » Wed Jul 06, 2005 7:51 pm

Heh...6 models on that plot...the BAMs, LBAR, and 98E cannot be trusted. And I trust the UKMET more than the GFDL.
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#16 Postby jkt21787 » Wed Jul 06, 2005 7:53 pm

reeef wrote:so is it now taking the NW turn or still gonna go back to west/nw

Its still WNW as of now.
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#17 Postby reeef » Wed Jul 06, 2005 7:53 pm

should we suspect the models to move west agian?
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#18 Postby jkt21787 » Wed Jul 06, 2005 7:54 pm

reeef wrote:should we suspect the models to move west agian?

They could and I certainly wouldn't be surprised. This far out things can change a lot.
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#19 Postby deltadog03 » Wed Jul 06, 2005 7:54 pm

hey don't forget about the GFS...consistant for a couple of days now...Central LA
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#20 Postby gkrangers » Wed Jul 06, 2005 7:55 pm

deltadog03 wrote:hey don't forget about the GFS...consistant for a couple of days now...Central LA
I agree.

NAM and Canadian are out to lunch, dinner, breakfast, lunch, dinner, breakfast, lunch, dinner....
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