What is validity of MSLP model in relation to track?

[PerfectStorm]

How does the MSLP perform as far as track goes. Looks like it sees a weakness in the high.

http://met.psu.edu/~arnottj/CHARM/tcgen ... 0/slp2.png

[rsdoug1981]

That weakness is caused by the remains of Cindy. That frame of the model is only 12 hours into the future, and that weakness should disappear.

[wjs3]

MSLP stands for mean surface level pressure. That's not the model name...it's the model dimension you are looking at--surface pressure.

The model is the WRF, which I don;t know anything about. Anyone else?

[wxman007]

MSLP is not a model...it stands for Mean Sea Level Pressure.

The model you are looking at is the WRF, which is actually a series of models that are intended to replace the current US suite of models in the next few years...it is still experimental, so use with caution.

[PerfectStorm]

yes, meant to put WRF. interesting. tks for the info.

[wjs3]

thanks for filling in info on the model.

[btangy]

Convention is to use a mean steering layer instead of just MSLP/surface winds, e.g. 850-400mb. Graphics can be found here: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... s-dlm.html



The recent more northward motion of Dennis may be due to a weakness in the ridge just N of Hispanola. The anticyclone sitting over the N Bahamas will likely stop Dennis from gaining too much latitude, especially as it moves further W. I wouldn't be surprised to see Dennis bend a little back toward the W once it nears Jamaica/SE Cuba.