18z Nam

[rsdoug1981]

FWIW, the NAM (yeah, I know...it's the NAM) actually shows a plausible solution. It should be noted that it has shifted a great deal to the west to the MS/AL state line at 84 hours. We'll see what GFS has to say...

[deltadog03]

a very different track on the 18z nam...much futher west

[PurdueWx80]

Told ya it would have a better handle once the storm was within the actual boundaries that the NAM is run within. However, this is the 18z run - wait for consistency on the 00z run, which will have the special soundings - that in combo with the storm being within the NAM's domain mean a lot more than the prior runs which split the storm in two.

[bfez1]

a very different track on the 18z nam...much futher west

Can you post a link, please?

[rsdoug1981]

Told ya it would have a better handle once the storm was within the actual boundaries that the NAM is run within. However, this is the 18z run - wait for consistency on the 00z run, which will have the special soundings - that in combo with the storm being within the NAM's domain mean a lot more than the prior runs which split the storm in two.

I can you patting yourself on the back from here

But you were right...it's the first reasonable solution I've seen from it.

[PurdueWx80]

[rsdoug1981]

a very different track on the 18z nam...much futher west

Can you post a link, please?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _084.shtml

[PurdueWx80]

Told ya it would have a better handle once the storm was within the actual boundaries that the NAM is run within. However, this is the 18z run - wait for consistency on the 00z run, which will have the special soundings - that in combo with the storm being within the NAM's domain mean a lot more than the prior runs which split the storm in two.

I can you patting yourself on the back from here

But you were right...it's the first reasonable solution I've seen from it.

HAHA...I guess I could've been more humble. Sorry 'bout that.

[Ivanhater]

so some models are trending back west?

[bfez1]

a very different track on the 18z nam...much futher west

Can you post a link, please?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _084.shtml

Thanks

[iceangel]

000
WTNT44 KNHC 072053
TCDAT4
HURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU JUL 07 2005

LATEST DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS SHOW THAT THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS BEEN FALLING AT SLIGHTLY OVER 1 MB PER HOUR
SINCE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE EYE HAS SHRUNK TO ABOUT 9 N MI
DIAMETER AND THE EYEWALL IS NOW CLOSED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
REMAIN QUITE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
SHOWS A BORDERLINE CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE IN 12 HOURS. DENNIS IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT OVER CUBA...BUT IT SHOULD REGAIN
STRENGTH WHEN IT EMERGES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
ALTHOUGH THE WIND SHEAR MAY BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST MAINTAINS DENNIS AS A MAJOR HURRICANE UP TO LANDFALL IN
THAT AREA.

THE MOTION CONTINUES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...310/13. THIS MOTION
SHOULD TAKE THE CENTER OF THIS DANGEROUS HURRICANE OVER CENTRAL
CUBA WITHIN 24 HOURS. DENNIS IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ALTHOUGH THIS SOUNDS
SIMPLE ENOUGH...THE DETAILS OF THE TURN AROUND THE RIDGE ARE
IMPORTANT FOR RESIDENTS OF FLORIDA. IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS...THE
GFS HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE FARTHER EAST AND IS NOW VERY CLOSE TO THE
GFDL TRACK. THESE TWO MODELS ARE THE EASTERNMOST OF THE DYNAMICAL
SUITE. THE U.K. MET. OFFICE MODEL REMAINS WELL WEST OF ALMOST ALL
OTHER GUIDANCE. OUR FORECAST IS ADJUSTED ONLY SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST
AND IS VERY CLOSE TO BOTH THE SIMPLE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS TRACK...
CONU...AND TO THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW POSTED FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS SINCE
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS COULD REACH THOSE ISLANDS BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

Code: Select all

INITIAL      07/2100Z 19.0N  76.6W   100 KT
12HR VT     08/0600Z 20.4N  78.4W   115 KT
24HR VT     08/1800Z 22.3N  80.5W    95 KT...INLAND
36HR VT     09/0600Z 24.2N  82.5W   100 KT
48HR VT     09/1800Z 26.0N  84.0W   105 KT
72HR VT     10/1800Z 30.0N  86.5W   105 KT
96HR VT     11/1800Z 35.0N  88.0W    30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     12/1800Z 38.0N  87.5W    20 KT...INLAND

$$

[rsdoug1981]

Told ya it would have a better handle once the storm was within the actual boundaries that the NAM is run within. However, this is the 18z run - wait for consistency on the 00z run, which will have the special soundings - that in combo with the storm being within the NAM's domain mean a lot more than the prior runs which split the storm in two.

I can you patting yourself on the back from here

But you were right...it's the first reasonable solution I've seen from it.

HAHA...I guess I could've been more humble. Sorry 'bout that.

I'm just pickin', Purdue...I appreciated your input last season and this season. You seem pretty knowledgeable.