18z Nam
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rsdoug1981
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18z Nam
FWIW, the NAM (yeah, I know...it's the NAM) actually shows a plausible solution. It should be noted that it has shifted a great deal to the west to the MS/AL state line at 84 hours. We'll see what GFS has to say...
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deltadog03
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PurdueWx80
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Told ya it would have a better handle once the storm was within the actual boundaries that the NAM is run within. However, this is the 18z run - wait for consistency on the 00z run, which will have the special soundings - that in combo with the storm being within the NAM's domain mean a lot more than the prior runs which split the storm in two.
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rsdoug1981
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PurdueWx80 wrote:Told ya it would have a better handle once the storm was within the actual boundaries that the NAM is run within. However, this is the 18z run - wait for consistency on the 00z run, which will have the special soundings - that in combo with the storm being within the NAM's domain mean a lot more than the prior runs which split the storm in two.
I can you patting yourself on the back from here
But you were right...it's the first reasonable solution I've seen from it.
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PurdueWx80
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rsdoug1981
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bfez1 wrote:deltadog03 wrote:a very different track on the 18z nam...much futher west
Can you post a link, please?
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _084.shtml
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PurdueWx80
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rsdoug1981 wrote:PurdueWx80 wrote:Told ya it would have a better handle once the storm was within the actual boundaries that the NAM is run within. However, this is the 18z run - wait for consistency on the 00z run, which will have the special soundings - that in combo with the storm being within the NAM's domain mean a lot more than the prior runs which split the storm in two.
I can you patting yourself on the back from here
But you were right...it's the first reasonable solution I've seen from it.
HAHA...I guess I could've been more humble. Sorry 'bout that.
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bfez1
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rsdoug1981 wrote:bfez1 wrote:deltadog03 wrote:a very different track on the 18z nam...much futher west
Can you post a link, please?
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _084.shtml
Thanks
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000
WTNT44 KNHC 072053
TCDAT4
HURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU JUL 07 2005
LATEST DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS SHOW THAT THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS BEEN FALLING AT SLIGHTLY OVER 1 MB PER HOUR
SINCE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE EYE HAS SHRUNK TO ABOUT 9 N MI
DIAMETER AND THE EYEWALL IS NOW CLOSED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
REMAIN QUITE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
SHOWS A BORDERLINE CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE IN 12 HOURS. DENNIS IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT OVER CUBA...BUT IT SHOULD REGAIN
STRENGTH WHEN IT EMERGES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
ALTHOUGH THE WIND SHEAR MAY BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST MAINTAINS DENNIS AS A MAJOR HURRICANE UP TO LANDFALL IN
THAT AREA.
THE MOTION CONTINUES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...310/13. THIS MOTION
SHOULD TAKE THE CENTER OF THIS DANGEROUS HURRICANE OVER CENTRAL
CUBA WITHIN 24 HOURS. DENNIS IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ALTHOUGH THIS SOUNDS
SIMPLE ENOUGH...THE DETAILS OF THE TURN AROUND THE RIDGE ARE
IMPORTANT FOR RESIDENTS OF FLORIDA. IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS...THE
GFS HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE FARTHER EAST AND IS NOW VERY CLOSE TO THE
GFDL TRACK. THESE TWO MODELS ARE THE EASTERNMOST OF THE DYNAMICAL
SUITE. THE U.K. MET. OFFICE MODEL REMAINS WELL WEST OF ALMOST ALL
OTHER GUIDANCE. OUR FORECAST IS ADJUSTED ONLY SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST
AND IS VERY CLOSE TO BOTH THE SIMPLE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS TRACK...
CONU...AND TO THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.
A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW POSTED FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS SINCE
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS COULD REACH THOSE ISLANDS BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
$$
WTNT44 KNHC 072053
TCDAT4
HURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU JUL 07 2005
LATEST DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS SHOW THAT THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS BEEN FALLING AT SLIGHTLY OVER 1 MB PER HOUR
SINCE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE EYE HAS SHRUNK TO ABOUT 9 N MI
DIAMETER AND THE EYEWALL IS NOW CLOSED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
REMAIN QUITE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
SHOWS A BORDERLINE CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE IN 12 HOURS. DENNIS IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT OVER CUBA...BUT IT SHOULD REGAIN
STRENGTH WHEN IT EMERGES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
ALTHOUGH THE WIND SHEAR MAY BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST MAINTAINS DENNIS AS A MAJOR HURRICANE UP TO LANDFALL IN
THAT AREA.
THE MOTION CONTINUES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...310/13. THIS MOTION
SHOULD TAKE THE CENTER OF THIS DANGEROUS HURRICANE OVER CENTRAL
CUBA WITHIN 24 HOURS. DENNIS IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ALTHOUGH THIS SOUNDS
SIMPLE ENOUGH...THE DETAILS OF THE TURN AROUND THE RIDGE ARE
IMPORTANT FOR RESIDENTS OF FLORIDA. IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS...THE
GFS HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE FARTHER EAST AND IS NOW VERY CLOSE TO THE
GFDL TRACK. THESE TWO MODELS ARE THE EASTERNMOST OF THE DYNAMICAL
SUITE. THE U.K. MET. OFFICE MODEL REMAINS WELL WEST OF ALMOST ALL
OTHER GUIDANCE. OUR FORECAST IS ADJUSTED ONLY SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST
AND IS VERY CLOSE TO BOTH THE SIMPLE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS TRACK...
CONU...AND TO THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.
A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW POSTED FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS SINCE
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS COULD REACH THOSE ISLANDS BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
Code: Select all
INITIAL 07/2100Z 19.0N 76.6W 100 KT
12HR VT 08/0600Z 20.4N 78.4W 115 KT
24HR VT 08/1800Z 22.3N 80.5W 95 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 09/0600Z 24.2N 82.5W 100 KT
48HR VT 09/1800Z 26.0N 84.0W 105 KT
72HR VT 10/1800Z 30.0N 86.5W 105 KT
96HR VT 11/1800Z 35.0N 88.0W 30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 12/1800Z 38.0N 87.5W 20 KT...INLAND$$
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rsdoug1981
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 184
- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 4:22 pm
- Location: Canton, MS
PurdueWx80 wrote:rsdoug1981 wrote:PurdueWx80 wrote:Told ya it would have a better handle once the storm was within the actual boundaries that the NAM is run within. However, this is the 18z run - wait for consistency on the 00z run, which will have the special soundings - that in combo with the storm being within the NAM's domain mean a lot more than the prior runs which split the storm in two.
I can you patting yourself on the back from here
But you were right...it's the first reasonable solution I've seen from it.
HAHA...I guess I could've been more humble. Sorry 'bout that.
I'm just pickin', Purdue...I appreciated your input last season and this season. You seem pretty knowledgeable.
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