models west

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
Ivanhater
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 11166
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
Location: Pensacola

models west

#1 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Jul 07, 2005 6:57 pm

hmm, i just looked un wunderground, and it shows the models back over around mobile bay, whats that about?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
jasons2k
Storm2k Executive
Storm2k Executive
Posts: 8250
Age: 52
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 12:32 pm
Location: The Woodlands, TX

ridge

#2 Postby jasons2k » Thu Jul 07, 2005 6:58 pm

ridge over fla has changed orientation
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Ivanhater
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 11166
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
Location: Pensacola

#3 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Jul 07, 2005 6:59 pm

so the models have been moving back west?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 148503
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#4 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 07, 2005 7:00 pm

Wait for the 00:00z model guidance very soon that I will post.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
TS Zack
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 925
Joined: Thu Jul 01, 2004 6:23 pm
Location: Louisiana
Contact:
Contact TS Zack

#5 Postby TS Zack » Thu Jul 07, 2005 7:00 pm

Yes they are... New GFS way over and all the Hurricane Models will come over with it.

Cycloneye, ready to see the 00z guidance at 8PM.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Steve
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9628
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2003 11:41 pm
Location: Gulf of Gavin Newsom

#6 Postby Steve » Thu Jul 07, 2005 7:02 pm

Those are old runs. They show the times in the upper right hand corner.

The 12z ECMWF (fwiw, their site is back up) shows a MS/AL line looking hit (my gun to the head call from earlier).

Steve
0 likes   
Top
Baggio
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 13
Joined: Thu Jul 07, 2005 7:00 pm

Re: models west

#7 Postby Baggio » Thu Jul 07, 2005 7:03 pm

ivanhater wrote:hmm, i just looked un wunderground, and it shows the models back over around mobile bay, whats that about?


FYI, the wunderground models are as of 8 AM and 2 PM today, and are possibly outdated.
Last edited by Baggio on Thu Jul 07, 2005 7:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
jabber
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 688
Joined: Mon Mar 24, 2003 5:36 pm
Location: Raleigh, NC (former Boynton Beach, Fl)

#8 Postby jabber » Thu Jul 07, 2005 7:03 pm

Old runs...
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
jabber
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 688
Joined: Mon Mar 24, 2003 5:36 pm
Location: Raleigh, NC (former Boynton Beach, Fl)

Re: models west

#9 Postby jabber » Thu Jul 07, 2005 7:04 pm

Baggio wrote:
ivanhater wrote:hmm, i just looked un wunderground, and it shows the models back over around mobile bay, whats that about?


FYI, the wunderground models are as of 8 AM and 2 PM today, and are possibly outdated.


Welcome.....
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
LAwxrgal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1763
Joined: Tue Jul 06, 2004 1:05 pm
Location: Reserve, LA (30 mi west of NOLA)

#10 Postby LAwxrgal » Thu Jul 07, 2005 7:04 pm

The entire track depends on the strength/weakness of the high pressure system across the GOM region.

Until now what's been steering Dennis has been the Bermuda high. He is around the periphery of this high.
0 likes   
Andrew 92/Isidore & Lili 02/Bill 03/Katrina & Rita 05/Gustav & Ike 08/Isaac 12 (flooded my house)/Harvey 17/Barry 19/Cristobal 20/Claudette 21/Ida 21 (In the Eye)/Francine 24
Wake me up when November ends
Top
jkt21787
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2061
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 5:27 pm
Location: Memphis, TN

#11 Postby jkt21787 » Thu Jul 07, 2005 7:06 pm

Remember most of the tropicals will follow the GFS. Watch the for the ones following the 0z GFS, not these yet.
0 likes   
Top
Baggio
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 13
Joined: Thu Jul 07, 2005 7:00 pm

Re: models west

#12 Postby Baggio » Thu Jul 07, 2005 7:11 pm

jabber wrote:
Welcome.....


Thank you. I actually registered last year, but my account was deactivated for some reason.
0 likes   
Top
Guest

#13 Postby Guest » Thu Jul 07, 2005 7:15 pm

jabber wrote:Old runs...


been monitoring these runs all day theses are new, look where they initialize.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Ivanhater
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 11166
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
Location: Pensacola

#14 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Jul 07, 2005 7:21 pm

i was about to say, becasue i dont remember them being that far west at those times
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
deltadog03
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3580
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2005 6:16 pm
Location: Macon, GA

#15 Postby deltadog03 » Thu Jul 07, 2005 7:22 pm

yeah...they werent that far west at 2pm...
0 likes   
Top
Opal storm

#16 Postby Opal storm » Thu Jul 07, 2005 7:24 pm

ivanhater wrote:i was about to say, becasue i dont remember them being that far west at those times

I agree,these don't look the same.

Old runs or not...I would not be suprised at a shift west becuase they've been shifting left and right every night.
0 likes   
Top
Steve H.
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2163
Joined: Sat Oct 19, 2002 9:06 am
Location: Palm Bay, Florida

#17 Postby Steve H. » Thu Jul 07, 2005 7:29 pm

NO! The 0Z GFS doesn't come out 'til about 11:30/12:00am :roll:
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
AL Chili Pepper
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 873
Joined: Thu Aug 12, 2004 1:15 pm
Location: Mobile, AL

#18 Postby AL Chili Pepper » Thu Jul 07, 2005 7:30 pm

Those are old runs, but they showed further east than that on this afternoon. Somebody must have crossed them up with last night's tracks.
0 likes   
Top
mahicks
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 329
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2005 10:25 pm

#19 Postby mahicks » Thu Jul 07, 2005 7:34 pm

Models West??? I don't Think So.......................


I'm looking at the current NHC model Plots and Yes, the GFDL is now more west (perdido key maby?) but the rest of the plots, (w/ the exception of the UKmet Outlier of course) are actually further east than this afternoons models. FWIW, the models are not as much in agreement as before though.


Anyone Else's thoughts on this?
Last edited by mahicks on Thu Jul 07, 2005 7:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
Guest

#20 Postby Guest » Thu Jul 07, 2005 7:36 pm

AL Chili Pepper wrote:Those are old runs, but they showed further east than that on this afternoon. Somebody must have crossed them up with last night's tracks.


how could they be old, look at where they initialize the storm.
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: AnnularCane, Teban54 and 36 guests