Canadian: New Orleans-Gulfport!!

[LSU2001]

gkrangers read Purdues post responding to erics due west thread.
TIm

Ps tell me what you think of his assessment.

[jax]

Looks like a Gulfport/Biloxi hit to me. That would still push a lot of water into Lake Ponchatrain.

Same path as Camille... How did New Orleans fare in that one?

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at196903.asp

Camille actually came from the south...
New Orleans got the hard north wind...
if this track were to happen... BAD NEWS.
Dennis would WEDGE a huge wall of water
that wouldn't have an outlet... It's a huge
triangle between the mouth of the river
and the Mississippi coast. A Cat 3-4 storm
with typical 10-18 foot surge could be wedged
up to 20-30 with the right angle (as Camille did)
but with this angle... it would all push up into
Lake Bourne and Panchatrain... North wind
would push all that into the City... YIKES

[rtd2]

This run of the Canadian still sucks...it takes the storm due west for a while at initialization...which is crap.

The GFS also does some wierd things, taking the storm so far north across Cuba....

I agree canadian is bad on initial run but like I said earlier I think the HP will push Dennis Due West abit Just north of Cuba!

[PurdueWx80]

I'll just skip over to this post in case the mods want to lock the other one.

00z GEM analysis - skip to the upper right chart, which is the surface analysis: Notice the lat-lon lines, which denote east-west and north-south, respectively.


The storm is slightly south of the 20N line - unfortunately, the image is too small for me to see how close it was to the actual 00z position.

Now, valid at 12z:



The storm is up near 21.5 N or so, clearly a gain in latitude - it is also just south of the coastline of Cuba.

[gkrangers]

The low is still too far west on the surface charts. Takes Dennis south of Cuba then jumps over the western tip and heads north. Dennis is going to cross central Cuba and emerge into the gulf much further east than the Canadian suggests.

Its not horrible, but its not a good run either, in my not so educated opinion.

I jumped the gun by not looking closely enuf...the 500mb plots stood out after I saw that other guys post on it.

[Javlin]

Thats it Dhweather fricken Sunday night to boot just a little freaky to much dejavue.

[AL Chili Pepper]

We'll know soon enough whether it's onto something or not.

[jkt21787]

Well I certainly doubt it this huge shift will verify, this run is much better than the FL coast hugger we saw earlier.

Mobile-Panama City is the target zone at this time.

P.S UKMET is in and keeps the same story as it has had all along...Interesting developments with all the models this evening...

[AL Chili Pepper]

Also, the UKMet and Canadian have Dennis crossing the western tip of Cuba, not the central part. That can be a benchmark of sorts.

[tailgater]

anybody know anything about this model?
http://www.arl.noaa.gov/ready-bin/animation.pl?id=MM5&mdl=grads/afwa/panel2&file=anim

THAT"S the one we don't want to verify. That would be really bad news for your neighbors on the South shore

[jkt21787]

anybody know anything about this model?
http://www.arl.noaa.gov/ready-bin/animation.pl?id=MM5&mdl=grads/afwa/panel2&file=anim

THAT"S the one we don't want to verify. That would be really bad news for your neighbors on the South shore

That's the MM5. Its experimental, NOT OPERATIONAL. Take it with a grain of salt. I have heard good things of it as a mesoscale model but not sure as a tropical one.

[Derecho]

Nobody should particularly care what the Canadian has; it's just a bad model with bad tropical verification stats.

It flops around wildly.

Not much data, but it's been the worst Dennis model so far by a huge margin.

[mobilebay]

Nobody should particularly care what the Canadian has; it's just a bad model with bad tropical verification stats.

It flops around wildly.

Not much data, but it's been the worst Dennis model so far by a huge margin.

Up until the 18Z run the NAM was hanging in there with it though. The CMC and NAm have both clustered within the NOLA-PCOLA areas though.