Can someone tell me what this means?

[tampastorm]

this is from the 5:00 upate upper-air data indicate a cold pool of -10c has
developed over northern Lousiana along a 500 mb trough axis...which
none of the models intialized very well. The colder air aloft
should help create a slightly stronger mid- to upper-level low than
the global...GFDL...and NAM models are forecasting to drop south of
Lousiana over the nothwestern Gulf. The result should be a deep-
layer southeasterly steering flow remaining over the eastern Gulf
of Mexico throughout the forecast period.

[Brent]

More northwest turn as it landfalls...

[djtil]

just another factor in the steering flow which led the nhc to forecast the following track:

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200504.html

[LilNoles2005]

I think they've got the forecast path nailed now.

[goodlife]

I dunno but I think it's good news for us here in SE Louisiana.....

[deltadog03]

truth be told...nobody know where the track/path is going...there are 2 distinct possiblities....just like that discussion said....Ridge could be stronger and it goes WNW and then NW at landfall...or it could go NW from now to landfalll....you don't know, i don't know..the GFS certainly dosn't know. and the NHC dosn't really know...

[djtil]

truth be told...nobody know where the track/path is going...there are 2 distinct possiblities....just like that discussion said....Ridge could be stronger and it goes WNW and then NW at landfall...or it could go NW from now to landfalll....you don't know, i don't know..the GFS certainly dosn't know. and the NHC dosn't really know...

completely disagree.....there arent really 2 distinct possibilities any more...there were 24-36 hours ago but the weakening ridge solution has verified......this close in the NHC can use actual data about what is really happening to verify the models and choose the forecast path vs just picking a consensus of the models like they have to do from days 4-7. its extremely unlikely that the eventual landfall will be more than 50 miles off at this point.

[deltadog03]

WOW...smart guy...you should go to VEGAS and put some money on that...

[Ixolib]

truth be told...nobody know where the track/path is going...there are 2 distinct possiblities....just like that discussion said....Ridge could be stronger and it goes WNW and then NW at landfall...or it could go NW from now to landfalll....you don't know, i don't know..the GFS certainly dosn't know. and the NHC dosn't really know...

Agree - hence the distance of the "watch" area along the coast.

[reeef]

oooo... ouch.. GET ER DONE

[tampastorm]

only 50 miles off at most? That is a VERY bold statement!

[deltadog03]

truth be told...nobody know where the track/path is going...there are 2 distinct possiblities....just like that discussion said....Ridge could be stronger and it goes WNW and then NW at landfall...or it could go NW from now to landfalll....you don't know, i don't know..the GFS certainly dosn't know. and the NHC dosn't really know...

Agree - hence the distance of the "watch" area along the coast.

VERY much so AGREED...we should all keep one basic thing in mind really...weather is not set in stone until it happens...period..including canes

[Brent]

50 miles maybe a bit too little... I say it could still 75 miles to the west into MS, although Mobile to Panama City is the highest chance right now. It is not going to the Peninsula... that is obvious.

[djtil]

Agree - hence the distance of the "watch" area along the coast.

the bigger reason is the size of the wind field.

[jax]

if it's only 50 miles.... they made the cone WAY to big...

[deltadog03]

Agree - hence the distance of the "watch" area along the coast.

the bigger reason is the size of the wind field.

no its not.....where did you learn that?????

[djtil]

no its not.....where did you learn that

well yes, yes it is.....the watches are put up where hurricane conditions may be felt...this is mostly based on the wind field......a watch is not a "probability" of the eye making landfall in the watch area...

[cinlfla]

It is not going to the Peninsula... that is obvious.

Thank God!!!!

[AL Chili Pepper]

The NHC is getting very good from 72 hours in. NW jog here, WNW there, due North here.....and right down the NHC path it goes.

[NorthGaWeather]

truth be told...nobody know where the track/path is going...there are 2 distinct possiblities....just like that discussion said....Ridge could be stronger and it goes WNW and then NW at landfall...or it could go NW from now to landfalll....you don't know, i don't know..the GFS certainly dosn't know. and the NHC dosn't really know...

completely disagree.....there arent really 2 distinct possibilities any more...there were 24-36 hours ago but the weakening ridge solution has verified......this close in the NHC can use actual data about what is really happening to verify the models and choose the forecast path vs just picking a consensus of the models like they have to do from days 4-7. its extremely unlikely that the eventual landfall will be more than 50 miles off at this point.

I wouldn't say extremely unlikely. Forecast errors can still occur.