Florida Needs to Hope the Atlantic Ridge Collapses for TD #5

#1 Postby **gatorcane** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 10:31 pm

The peninsula was saved twice this year already by a stronger than normal western atlantic ridge (Dennis and TS. Cindy) but as I've been saying it may end up steering storms into the state come August/Sept....looks like TD #5 is going to ridge the southern edge of the ridge.

#2 Postby **gatorcane** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 10:32 pm

ridge -> ride

texasheat · #3 Postby **texasheat** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 10:32 pm

wayyyyy to far out to tell bro

#4 Postby **gatorcane** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 10:33 pm

it's far out but the ridge really built in a few weeks ago and doesn't appear to be going away anytime soon.

Stratusxpeye · #5 Postby **Stratusxpeye** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 10:38 pm

nOT LIKING The GFDL Model at all. no Way. Its got a cat 4 north of the islands thrashing through the bahamas and up the middle of florida. Crazy Sruff.

#6 Postby **gatorcane** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 10:39 pm

nOT LIKING The GFDL Model at all. no Way. Its got a cat 4 north of the islands thrashing through the bahamas and up the middle of florida. Crazy Sruff.

It's very early still but if the ridge holds as it's been doing for the past few weeks it will move right into the E. coast of FL somewhere :eek:

#7 Postby **THead** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 10:47 pm

If the ridge holds, wouldn't it just keep the storm down south of florida, and push it into the GOM again, like dennis?

#8 Postby **deltadog03** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 10:47 pm

boca_chris wrote:
nOT LIKING The GFDL Model at all. no Way. Its got a cat 4 north of the islands thrashing through the bahamas and up the middle of florida. Crazy Sruff.

It's very early still but if the ridge holds as it's been doing for the past few weeks it will move right into the E. coast of FL somewhere

in an early call, a stronger more SW moving ridge..it will stay south of fl...and head westward into the gulf

texasheat · #9 Postby **texasheat** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 10:48 pm

wait.. as of now if the would the storm move into the west gulf beacuse of the ridge or go to flrodai

#10 Postby **THead** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 10:48 pm

Hehe, Jinx! deltadog!

gkrangers · #11 Postby **gkrangers** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 10:49 pm

THead wrote:If the ridge holds, wouldn't it just keep the storm down south of florida, and push it into the GOM again, like dennis?

Not necessarily. The ridge is forecasted to have a bit of weakness in it north of the lesser antilles..which will let the storm ove wnw-nw towards puerto rico and hispaniola. Then the ridge strenghthens to the west, steering the storm towards the Bahamas and US coastline.

The ridge always kept Dennis very far south....TD5 is gonna be brought north due to that weakness, then resume a westerly course around the periphery of the ridge once the ridge gets its strenght back. Thats the idea right now.

#12 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 10:50 pm

Sorry to disturb everyone so early in the life of TD 5 but looks at the map of the NHC three days out, and look at the ridge to the north. By the way, say hi to possible "Franklin" behind TD 5.

#13 Postby **deltadog03** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 10:50 pm

THead wrote:Hehe, Jinx! deltadog!

LOL....if the ridge builds in...this could be the pattern that would send her into the western gulf...imo...don't start bashing..lol

cinlfla · #14 Postby **cinlfla** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 10:59 pm

Sorry to disturb everyone so early in the life of TD 5 but looks at the map of the NHC three days out, and look at the ridge to the north. By the way, say hi to possible "Franklin" behind TD 5.

I have a question about the map you just posted. What are the arrows pointing to the X's?

air360 · #15 Postby **air360** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 11:17 pm

the expected tracks of the systems i would guess

#16 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Jul 11, 2005 7:04 am

it's not looking good for S. Florida right now

Patrick99 · #17 Postby **Patrick99** » Mon Jul 11, 2005 7:11 am

boca_chris wrote:it's not looking good for S. Florida right now

I expect to hear this several more times this season...all I know is that if we are in the initial 5-day "cone," that's a sure bet it won't hit S. FL. hehe - at this point, I'd probably raise an eyebrow more if the cone was set a little right or left of us - then we'd worry about the inevitable "model trend"

#18 Postby **EDR1222** » Mon Jul 11, 2005 7:30 am

Obviously things can change at any time, but Stacy Stewart hinted at it earlier in the year that last year there was a flip flop in steering patters from the previous 8 years and that it was unlikely that it would change right back to where it was before last year. Still possible however.

But the ridge definately established itself a few weeks ago.

margaritabeach · #19 Postby **margaritabeach** » Mon Jul 11, 2005 7:31 am

floater #1 is now over TD 5

Zadok · #20 Postby **Zadok** » Mon Jul 11, 2005 7:41 am

It looks like Florida is getting set up for the 1,2,3 punch again this year. It looks like it's fixen to be Florida east coasts turn next week. Bad news.

Florida Needs to Hope the Atlantic Ridge Collapses for TD #5

Florida Needs to Hope the Atlantic Ridge Collapses for TD #5

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