Florida Needs to Hope the Atlantic Ridge Collapses for TD #5
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gatorcane
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Florida Needs to Hope the Atlantic Ridge Collapses for TD #5
The peninsula was saved twice this year already by a stronger than normal western atlantic ridge (Dennis and TS. Cindy) but as I've been saying it may end up steering storms into the state come August/Sept....looks like TD #5 is going to ridge the southern edge of the ridge.
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Stratusxpeye
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deltadog03
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boca_chris wrote:nOT LIKING The GFDL Model at all. no Way. Its got a cat 4 north of the islands thrashing through the bahamas and up the middle of florida. Crazy Sruff.
It's very early still but if the ridge holds as it's been doing for the past few weeks it will move right into the E. coast of FL somewhere
in an early call, a stronger more SW moving ridge..it will stay south of fl...and head westward into the gulf
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texasheat
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gkrangers
Not necessarily. The ridge is forecasted to have a bit of weakness in it north of the lesser antilles..which will let the storm ove wnw-nw towards puerto rico and hispaniola. Then the ridge strenghthens to the west, steering the storm towards the Bahamas and US coastline.THead wrote:If the ridge holds, wouldn't it just keep the storm down south of florida, and push it into the GOM again, like dennis?
The ridge always kept Dennis very far south....TD5 is gonna be brought north due to that weakness, then resume a westerly course around the periphery of the ridge once the ridge gets its strenght back. Thats the idea right now.
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HURAKAN
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Sorry to disturb everyone so early in the life of TD 5 but looks at the map of the NHC three days out, and look at the ridge to the north. By the way, say hi to possible "Franklin" behind TD 5.
Last edited by HURAKAN on Sun Jul 10, 2005 10:52 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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deltadog03
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boca_chris wrote:it's not looking good for S. Florida right now
I expect to hear this several more times this season...all I know is that if we are in the initial 5-day "cone," that's a sure bet it won't hit S. FL. hehe - at this point, I'd probably raise an eyebrow more if the cone was set a little right or left of us - then we'd worry about the inevitable "model trend"
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Obviously things can change at any time, but Stacy Stewart hinted at it earlier in the year that last year there was a flip flop in steering patters from the previous 8 years and that it was unlikely that it would change right back to where it was before last year. Still possible however.
But the ridge definately established itself a few weeks ago.
But the ridge definately established itself a few weeks ago.
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margaritabeach
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