00:00z Model Guidance=Old Mexico

[cycloneye]

hicksta please,please,please stop your -removed-,you are almost crossing that fine line or else

[hicksta]

Cyclone please check you pm's.

[Normandy]

Right... this storm has been tracking south. That's evident from looking at the extrapolation of the storm (that dotted black line) that continues the current motion forward for five days. This has been south of the consensus for a while...

Corrrect. But right now she is north of her next projected point

Ummm... I don't see how you are getting that Emily is north of her next projected point. She's been tracking south of model and NHC guidance for a while now.

Look at the NHC sat loops and put the forecast points on...shes due east of the next one moving wnw...so odds are she will pass that point to the north a bit.

[clfenwi]

Whoops, there goes that tight cluster...

[cycloneye]

Cyclone please check you pm's.

Enough said.

[canegrl04]

I will wait and see where the models are trending on Sunday .Then I will believe its a certain path

[dwg71]

Right... this storm has been tracking south. That's evident from looking at the extrapolation of the storm (that dotted black line) that continues the current motion forward for five days. This has been south of the consensus for a while...

Corrrect. But right now she is north of her next projected point

Ummm... I don't see how you are getting that Emily is north of her next projected point. She's been tracking south of model and NHC guidance for a while now.

Look at the NHC sat loops and put the forecast points on...shes due east of the next one moving wnw...so odds are she will pass that point to the north a bit.

its not due east, yet...

[hicksta]

I will wait and see where the models are trending on Sunday .Then I will believe its a certain path

Exactly, Once she leaves the Yucatan we should have a great idea of where she would be going. Now the models are reading a strengthing in the ridge pushing her more west. They could change thought only time can tell

[wxman57]

I'd point out that when a storm begins wrapping up, as Emily is doing once more, the eye will tend to wobble around quite a bit. So we need to watch for a long-term trend (12-24 hours) and not short-term movements. Interesting that all latest model guidance is now farther south. Even the GFS which had Emily moving into the mid TX coast is now putting Emily inland north of Tampico, MX.

[Derek Ortt]

it was the 18Z GFS menaing it doesnt have the full compliment of data.

would rather wait until the 0Z guidance is available

[hicksta]

Derek, I just looked at the GFS 00z. it had it north of brownsivlle but south of corpus.. while the 18z had it mexico.. why is there a big change between them and which one is the more accurate

http://wxforecaster.com/model12.htm GFS 500mb 00z... am i looking at the wrong one or is that site just not updated

[deltadog03]

Derek, I just looked at the GFS 00z. it had it north of brownsivlle but south of corpus.. while the 18z had it mexico.. why is there a big change between them and which one is the more accurate

http://wxforecaster.com/model12.htm GFS 500mb 00z... am i looking at the wrong one or is that site just not updated

the 00z should NOT be out yet...you can always tell cuz nam will run first...and it hasn't started yet..

[hicksta]

Alright just making sure.

[gkrangers]

00z GFS won't be out for another 3 hours.

[HURAKAN]

Muchos Tacos.

Mucho caos diría yo.

Much chaos I would say.