Reminds me of Gilbert

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TSmith274
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Reminds me of Gilbert

#1 Postby TSmith274 » Sat Jul 16, 2005 6:13 pm

Maybe this has been mentioned before, but Emily reminds me of Gilbert. The track is similar, and the forecast is also similar to his track. Not to mention, the strength of this thing.
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#2 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Jul 16, 2005 6:16 pm

The track yes...

I would not be surpized if recon reported back that the pressure has droped 10 to 15 milibars since this morning. It was not looking anywhere near what it looks now then. I expect at least to find 158 knot winds at flight level.
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#3 Postby abajan » Sat Jul 16, 2005 6:17 pm

It's much smaller than Gilbert, though.
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#4 Postby TSmith274 » Sat Jul 16, 2005 6:18 pm

Yeah, it is. Emily will never get down to 888mb. I believe that was Gilbert's lowest pressure. Lowest on record, in fact. But yes, I really meant more of the track similarities.
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#5 Postby Brent » Sat Jul 16, 2005 6:20 pm

The track is almost identical... I was only a baby when Gilbert hit though(born July 24, 1988).
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#6 Postby Valkhorn » Sat Jul 16, 2005 6:25 pm

The track isn't identical.

Gilbert went through the spine of Jamaica.
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#7 Postby EDR1222 » Sat Jul 16, 2005 7:19 pm

Not exactly like Gilbert, but on Satellite this evening, she sure looks like she might be a 5.
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#8 Postby gilbert88 » Sat Jul 16, 2005 7:24 pm

Gilbert was the worst Atlantic hurricane to hit Mexico in many years.

Fortunately this time the government has so far been very cautious and swift with the evacs. The worst thing about Emily is that she decided to nail Cancun in the busiest period of the year (usually one doesn't worry about CV-type canes in July).
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#9 Postby rtd2 » Sat Jul 16, 2005 7:28 pm

The Granddaddy of all!


Image
Last edited by rtd2 on Sat Jul 16, 2005 7:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#10 Postby Normandy » Sat Jul 16, 2005 7:30 pm

That was a nice ERC he was going through at landfall.
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#11 Postby huricanwatcher » Sat Jul 16, 2005 7:33 pm

TSmith274 wrote:Yeah, it is. Emily will never get down to 888mb. I believe that was Gilbert's lowest pressure. Lowest on record, in fact. But yes, I really meant more of the track similarities.



this storm is not over till 'the fat lady sings'
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#12 Postby Radar » Sat Jul 16, 2005 7:34 pm

Gosh looking at the old pic of Gilbert it is just phenomenal. Gilbert truly was "The Perfect Storm"... perfectly shaped that is :lol: What a monster!
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#13 Postby weather_sam » Sat Jul 16, 2005 9:37 pm

anyone here think Emily will be the first category 5 storm to form in the month of July?
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#14 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Jul 16, 2005 9:41 pm

It has a chance once it comes out of the EWRC...But the enviroment is going to have to be perfect. In forecasting how the change over between the eyes(Inner to outter) is very hard. Last time the outter took over/had enough of the punch. So that the system holded most of it together. But who knows. Ivan did it three times.

But still for now its still a cat4...Even so its so close you can taste it.
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#15 Postby Swimdude » Sat Jul 16, 2005 9:55 pm

Brent wrote:The track is almost identical... I was only a baby when Gilbert hit though(born July 24, 1988).


Five days younger than me. Happy early birthday! :D
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#16 Postby deltadog03 » Sat Jul 16, 2005 9:57 pm

today was my bday...lol
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#17 Postby Hurricane Cheese » Sat Jul 16, 2005 9:59 pm

Gilbert's lowest pressure was 882 mb from what I recall on my NOVA special on Hurricanes...

Everything is very similar except the size of the storms.

I know Gilbert struck the Yucatan with winds of 170 mph....and I think it's possible we could see a similar strike here.

Either way, there's going to be catastrophic damage on the pennisula within 36 hours I'm afraid...
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#18 Postby Normandy » Sat Jul 16, 2005 10:08 pm

Hurricane Cheese wrote:Gilbert's lowest pressure was 882 mb from what I recall on my NOVA special on Hurricanes...

Everything is very similar except the size of the storms.

I know Gilbert struck the Yucatan with winds of 170 mph....and I think it's possible we could see a similar strike here.

Either way, there's going to be catastrophic damage on the pennisula within 36 hours I'm afraid...


Ive always heard 888.
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#19 Postby rtd2 » Sun Jul 17, 2005 12:02 am

Normandy wrote:
Hurricane Cheese wrote:Gilbert's lowest pressure was 882 mb from what I recall on my NOVA special on Hurricanes...

Everything is very similar except the size of the storms.

I know Gilbert struck the Yucatan with winds of 170 mph....and I think it's possible we could see a similar strike here.

Either way, there's going to be catastrophic damage on the pennisula within 36 hours I'm afraid...


Ive always heard 888.



Yep 888mb and Strongest in WESTERN HEMI..NOT ALL TIME!


COMPARE GILBERT TO EMILY IN ABOUT THE SAME SPOT! :eek: :eek:

[img]
Compare Emily to Gilbert in about the SAME location....



Image

:eek:
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#20 Postby mike18xx » Sun Jul 17, 2005 12:10 am

huricanwatcher wrote:Emily will never get down to 888mb. I believe that was Gilbert's lowest pressure.
How do SSTs/heat-content at Gilbert's "bomb spot" compare this year versus 1988?

(Btw, based on your pic, it looks like Gilbert was actually being sheared by deep easterlies, which may account for the weakening and attendant EWRC. I.e., he was doing fine until some bastard snuck up and punched him in the back...the dirty cowards.)
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