Hyperstorm wrote:Just checked the tropical Atlantic for the day, and let me tell you that I'm surprised at something.
I'm not surprised at 92L as I thought this one had a good potential, but I'm quite surprised at the wave right behind 92L, which is showing signs of immediate organization. And I mean, IMMEDIATE.
It's not at all clear that's even a wave; it MIGHT be but I doubt it. There's clearly a wave leaving Africa at the moment. If that thing in the middle of 92L and the wave leaving Africa is a wave, then the "wavelength" is WAY too short; it's usually 15 degrees or so of longitude between waves.
Blob of convection does not = wave. However, when all you're looking at is satellite every 6 hours it's understandable that every area of concentrated convection over water in the tropics is proclaimed a wave.
However, in reality, you can have utterly convectionless waves, wind surges that aren't waves at all with a lot of convection, etc, convection caused by upper level divergence of an ULL.
What is really meant by a wave is a perturbation at about the 850mb level in the atmosphere, which often, but not always, has convection associated with it. People need to undertand the true definition of an African Easterly Wave and that it's not merely a blob of convection.
That's why the soundings from Dakar, the CV Islands, QS, etc. are so important in identifying waves.
There were no pressure falls over Senegal when that area left Africa (in fact, they rose) for example; that the TWDs don't even mention it probably reflect the fact that the soundings over Africa didn't identify a wave there at all.
Yesterday, the system was too far north to become something and I didn't put much attention on it, but TODAY is a WHOLE new story. The system has moved WSW today and convection has exploded over a surface circulation.
I don't see a surface circ with it at all, and there was nothing resembling a sfc circ with it on this morning's QS pass.
92L has plenty of work to do and our wave you know 
