Official 93L Invest thread=93L is not anymore at NRL

[rockyman]

That's the same image.

Here's the current image:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.html

Yes...shear has decreased rather dramatically west of 70

[skysummit]

It sure does look a lot better. Thanks for the link.

[skysummit]

Is there a spin? I know the surface observations don't support it, but I'm looking closely at this area and I can kind of see the lower clouds rotating inward. Is it, or is it just a trick on my eyes? BTW, I'm using the NASA site....

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurr.html

[stormchazer]

I guess not...Recon was cancelled.

[skysummit]

I guess not...Recon was cancelled.

I know it was cancelled....earlier this morning. I just noticed this in the past few minutes.

[TS Zack]

Maybe Mid-level but nothing at the surface as of now!

It looks very organized at this point but just lacking the one main part. A circulation. In general, the wave is very impressive.

[stormchazer]

I guess not...Recon was cancelled.

I know it was cancelled....earlier this morning. I just noticed this in the past few minutes.

Local obs are not showing any indication of a surface rotation. Pressures have been steady and winds blowing from East fairly steadily on all the buoys in the area. The last QUIKSCAT does not show signs of a circulation either. The Sat looks promising, I agree, but there is not anything brewing there.....yet.

[clfenwi]

TGPY 311500Z 28004KT 1500 TS SHRA FEW010CB BKN015 25/25 Q1014 CB-N

Westerly wind in Grenada

[cycloneye]

A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE SOUTHERN LESSER ANTILLES IS MOVING WESTWARD
AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE YESTERDAY...
AND THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA
LATER TODAY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. HOWEVER SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT
REMAINS POSSIBLE...AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY.

[stormchazer]

No sign of Circulation on this pass.

[clfenwi]

(snip)


No sign of Circulation on this pass.

Note the data pass timestamp ... 10:07... not exactly fresh and hot...

[Thunder44]

No sign of Circulation on this pass.

That's from early this morning. Look at the UTC time on the bottom.

[stormchazer]

I know this was earlier, I was just mentioning what the last observations were showing. As I said, it looks promising but the jury is still out right now, at least according to the NHC. I assume thats why they cancelled the Recon.

[cycloneye]

Thanks dixie.

[Thunder44]

I know this was earlier, I was just mentioning what the last observations were showing. As I said, it looks promising but the jury is still out right now, at least according to the NHC. I assume thats why they cancelled the Recon.

They cancelled the recon at about 9am this morning.

[stormchazer]

I know this was earlier, I was just mentioning what the last observations were showing. As I said, it looks promising but the jury is still out right now, at least according to the NHC. I assume thats why they cancelled the Recon.

They cancelled the recon at about 9am this morning.

Okay....and it is now 12:16pm....Do I win?

If it continues to develop, then I am sure we will hear about it from the NHC. 92L was almost a Depression, but now its gone. I am just waiting to see more. My opinion.

[clfenwi]

15/16Z wind obs

Tobago TTCP 311600Z 25006KT
Grenada TGPY 311600Z 31005KT
St Vincent TVSV 311600Z 12011KT
St Lucia TLPL 311500Z 03012KT
Martinique TFFF 311500Z 06003KT

Not a monolithic easterly wind out there...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It looks much better oreganized then 92L. The shear maps shows that it has a upper level high. In it has nice curving to the clouds. That data shows a west winds to the south of the cirulation. While farther up in the chain of islands I saw a northeast wind. tropical depression 9 of a few years ago was upgraded with one ship report that reported west wind. In later found to be Bs. This is a sure thing because you can't get 3 or 4 islands saying the same thing. I don't understand why a special statment is not coming out.

[Thunder44]

It looks much better oreganized then 92L. The shear maps shows that it has a upper level high. In it has nice curving to the clouds. That data shows a west winds to the south of the cirulation. While farther up in the chain of islands I saw a northeast wind. tropical depression 9 of a few years ago was upgraded with one ship report that reported west wind. In later found to be Bs. This is a sure thing because you can't get 3 or 4 islands saying the same thing. I don't understand why a special statment is not coming out.

Patience my friend. I'm sure they are aware and waiting for more obs to come in.

[stormchazer]

Not monolithic I understand. I know its a few hours old but the winds were more from the East then west and reports have been fairly calm from most of the islands as far as winds with steady pressures.

TFFR 31/1600 29.94 82 79 89 140 7
TLPC 31/1600 29.97 79 75 89 90 12 6 FEW009 SCT016 OVC070 R-
TGPY 31/1600 29.94 79 77 94 310 5 1 FEW010 BKN015 RW
TAPA 31/1600 29.94 86 79 79 110 13 6 SCT022 BKN280


I am going to wait and see if something is trying to form. I am getting bored of this whole 24-48 hours of calm we have had since Franklin did its square-dance off the east coast.