Will TD#9 curve out to sea?

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jasons2k
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#61 Postby jasons2k » Thu Aug 04, 2005 1:39 pm

Stratusxpeye wrote:
TS Zack wrote:The recurve scenario is becoming less and less likely because the storm is continuing on a Westward Course. It needs to gain some latitude quickly if it wants to feel the weakness. It will not get picked-up by the weakness at 12 Degrees Latitude.

I just don't see it happening.


So as a premature guess if you dont see it likely becoming a northward turn system approx as a guess where in the us would we be looking at landfall? A frances typoe track? Or up the east coast to nc sc and such?


1. Tape map of coast to wall.
2. Throw 10 darts at it. They don't all have to hit.
3. Any of the 10 has an equal chance at this point.

Seriously, I'm just playing around, but it's not far from the truth IMO. :wink:
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#62 Postby WeatherEmperor » Thu Aug 04, 2005 1:43 pm

dwg71 wrote:18Z UKMET and GFDL show INVEST95 crossing 20N before 50W...

I'll stick with FISH...


Just for discussion purposes, take a close look at the GFDL and UKMET. The GFDL initializes 95L moving to the NW and then a WNW track after that. it almost has a north bias to it. As for the UKMET look at which longitude it is initialized at, 14N. Its not that far north. Just take a close look at the model map graphic and you will see. Im not bashing ur opinion, just making discussion. What are your thoughts on this?

<RICKY>

http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm
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#63 Postby jkt21787 » Thu Aug 04, 2005 1:47 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:
dwg71 wrote:18Z UKMET and GFDL show INVEST95 crossing 20N before 50W...

I'll stick with FISH...


Just for discussion purposes, take a close look at the GFDL and UKMET. The GFDL initializes 95L moving to the NW and then a WNW track after that. it almost has a north bias to it. As for the UKMET look at which longitude it is initialized at, 14N. Its not that far north. Just take a close look at the model map graphic and you will see. Im not bashing ur opinion, just making discussion. What are your thoughts on this?

<RICKY>

http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm

Yes, this is very true. Also keep in mind that the globals have a poleward bias, as DT stated. How many storms have we seen start out with similar model runs only to be pushed more and more south? Not to mention the trend is already more left.

The chances, IMHO, are increasing that 95L/TD9/Irene will NOT be a fish, though way too soon for any definitive answer. Climatology does say otherwise, so we will have to see.
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#64 Postby deltadog03 » Thu Aug 04, 2005 1:49 pm

i agree with ya...kevin
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#65 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Thu Aug 04, 2005 1:49 pm

Will it recurve?

Too early to tell. We'll probably have a better idea by Monday or Tuesday
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#66 Postby dwg71 » Thu Aug 04, 2005 1:50 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:
dwg71 wrote:18Z UKMET and GFDL show INVEST95 crossing 20N before 50W...

I'll stick with FISH...


Just for discussion purposes, take a close look at the GFDL and UKMET. The GFDL initializes 95L moving to the NW and then a WNW track after that. it almost has a north bias to it. As for the UKMET look at which longitude it is initialized at, 14N. Its not that far north. Just take a close look at the model map graphic and you will see. Im not bashing ur opinion, just making discussion. What are your thoughts on this?

<RICKY>

http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm


I dont dispute, lets see the other runs to see what they come up with. They should be out any minute.
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#67 Postby WeatherEmperor » Thu Aug 04, 2005 1:54 pm

well the 18Z models came out and not much chance, still show a recurve. perhaps this recurve is still a major posibility afterall.

<RICKY>
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#68 Postby dwg71 » Thu Aug 04, 2005 2:00 pm

Anything could happen, but as of right now, I bet you will see a NHC forecast track that will pass to the east of 20N 60W.
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#69 Postby WeatherEmperor » Thu Aug 04, 2005 2:02 pm

dwg71 wrote:Anything could happen, but as of right now, I bet you will see a NHC forecast track that will pass to the east of 20N 60W.


Yup. Find it hard to disagree with you based on current evidence.

<RICKY>
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#70 Postby Sanibel » Thu Aug 04, 2005 2:19 pm

Still close to Africa, but heading appears to be near west at 275* or so...
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#71 Postby dwg71 » Thu Aug 04, 2005 2:22 pm

Sanibel wrote:Still close to Africa, but heading appears to be near west at 275* or so...


you just opened a can of worms..

i'll summarize next 5 posts:

No 280, No its 315, no its 265, its moving 330 - duhhh!, its just a wobble it will resume 276 heading in a few hours...
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#72 Postby Scorpion » Thu Aug 04, 2005 2:25 pm

Good thing the wobble wars haven't started yet. But that will change once it gets closer.
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#73 Postby Frank2 » Thu Aug 04, 2005 2:30 pm

The NHC models for TD9 show the system recurving well before 60W, so it's likely not to be something to get too excited about at this time, however, what is of significance is that this would be the third system out of the last four (not counting Gert) to either form in the western Atlantic and move northeast, or recurve well east of the islands.

And, if we also count the one strong tropical wave immediately behind Emily, which also recuved near 50W (and most likely would have developed into a substantial system), this could truly signal some sort of long-term pattern, and is why, despite some comments here otherwise, I've maintained that this weakness in the subtropical ridge (east of 70W) might be the case for the remainder of the season, especially since it has lingered for the past 3-4 weeks.

Frank
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#74 Postby dwg71 » Thu Aug 04, 2005 2:31 pm

Hey Frank....DUCK!
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#75 Postby Frank2 » Thu Aug 04, 2005 2:32 pm

Quack?
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#76 Postby Sanibel » Thu Aug 04, 2005 2:32 pm

Because someone makes a direction comment in relation to the 'out to sea' question does not deserve a flurry of "wobble" cracks. If you just refrained from doing that there wouldn't be any wobble post problem.

The observation that the wave center is moving near west to maybe 275* is perfectly legitimate and doesn't deserve to be heckled.
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#77 Postby Sanibel » Thu Aug 04, 2005 2:34 pm

Good post Frank2. It tells us the 2004 entrenched High isn't there...
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#78 Postby deltadog03 » Thu Aug 04, 2005 2:35 pm

Sanibel wrote:Because someone makes a direction comment in relation to the 'out to sea' question does not deserve a flurry of "wobble" cracks. If you just refrained from doing that there wouldn't be any wobble post problem.

The observation that the wave center is moving near west to maybe 275* is perfectly legitimate and doesn't deserve to be heckled.


AGREED...It dosn't deserve to bashed...i have no problem with anyone putting what they think or see the movement to be...and yes, its moving around "275"
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#79 Postby Frank2 » Thu Aug 04, 2005 2:36 pm

I'm not sure what everyone is referring to, but, I'm wasn't commenting about any wobble here or there, but, what the long-term pattern seems to be revealing - that there is a general weakness in the ridge between 45-70W, and how it seems to be making a difference in the track of a number of systems.

Frank
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#80 Postby deltadog03 » Thu Aug 04, 2005 2:40 pm

sorry, frank...wasn't talking about that...i am just stating that when people put what they see as far as movement...some bash the living daylights out of it...thats all
sorry if it came out that way...
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