Will TD#9 curve out to sea?

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
jasons2k
Storm2k Executive
Storm2k Executive
Posts: 8250
Age: 52
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 12:32 pm
Location: The Woodlands, TX

#61 Postby jasons2k » Thu Aug 04, 2005 1:39 pm

Stratusxpeye wrote:
TS Zack wrote:The recurve scenario is becoming less and less likely because the storm is continuing on a Westward Course. It needs to gain some latitude quickly if it wants to feel the weakness. It will not get picked-up by the weakness at 12 Degrees Latitude.

I just don't see it happening.


So as a premature guess if you dont see it likely becoming a northward turn system approx as a guess where in the us would we be looking at landfall? A frances typoe track? Or up the east coast to nc sc and such?


1. Tape map of coast to wall.
2. Throw 10 darts at it. They don't all have to hit.
3. Any of the 10 has an equal chance at this point.

Seriously, I'm just playing around, but it's not far from the truth IMO. :wink:
0 likes   
Top
WeatherEmperor
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4806
Age: 41
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:54 pm
Location: South Florida

#62 Postby WeatherEmperor » Thu Aug 04, 2005 1:43 pm

dwg71 wrote:18Z UKMET and GFDL show INVEST95 crossing 20N before 50W...

I'll stick with FISH...


Just for discussion purposes, take a close look at the GFDL and UKMET. The GFDL initializes 95L moving to the NW and then a WNW track after that. it almost has a north bias to it. As for the UKMET look at which longitude it is initialized at, 14N. Its not that far north. Just take a close look at the model map graphic and you will see. Im not bashing ur opinion, just making discussion. What are your thoughts on this?

<RICKY>

http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm
0 likes   
Top
jkt21787
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2061
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 5:27 pm
Location: Memphis, TN

#63 Postby jkt21787 » Thu Aug 04, 2005 1:47 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:
dwg71 wrote:18Z UKMET and GFDL show INVEST95 crossing 20N before 50W...

I'll stick with FISH...


Just for discussion purposes, take a close look at the GFDL and UKMET. The GFDL initializes 95L moving to the NW and then a WNW track after that. it almost has a north bias to it. As for the UKMET look at which longitude it is initialized at, 14N. Its not that far north. Just take a close look at the model map graphic and you will see. Im not bashing ur opinion, just making discussion. What are your thoughts on this?

<RICKY>

http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm

Yes, this is very true. Also keep in mind that the globals have a poleward bias, as DT stated. How many storms have we seen start out with similar model runs only to be pushed more and more south? Not to mention the trend is already more left.

The chances, IMHO, are increasing that 95L/TD9/Irene will NOT be a fish, though way too soon for any definitive answer. Climatology does say otherwise, so we will have to see.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
deltadog03
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3580
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2005 6:16 pm
Location: Macon, GA

#64 Postby deltadog03 » Thu Aug 04, 2005 1:49 pm

i agree with ya...kevin
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Tampa Bay Hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5598
Age: 37
Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:54 pm
Location: St. Petersburg, FL

#65 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Thu Aug 04, 2005 1:49 pm

Will it recurve?

Too early to tell. We'll probably have a better idea by Monday or Tuesday
0 likes   
Top
dwg71
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2349
Joined: Wed Jun 08, 2005 4:34 pm

#66 Postby dwg71 » Thu Aug 04, 2005 1:50 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:
dwg71 wrote:18Z UKMET and GFDL show INVEST95 crossing 20N before 50W...

I'll stick with FISH...


Just for discussion purposes, take a close look at the GFDL and UKMET. The GFDL initializes 95L moving to the NW and then a WNW track after that. it almost has a north bias to it. As for the UKMET look at which longitude it is initialized at, 14N. Its not that far north. Just take a close look at the model map graphic and you will see. Im not bashing ur opinion, just making discussion. What are your thoughts on this?

<RICKY>

http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm


I dont dispute, lets see the other runs to see what they come up with. They should be out any minute.
0 likes   
Top
WeatherEmperor
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4806
Age: 41
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:54 pm
Location: South Florida

#67 Postby WeatherEmperor » Thu Aug 04, 2005 1:54 pm

well the 18Z models came out and not much chance, still show a recurve. perhaps this recurve is still a major posibility afterall.

<RICKY>
0 likes   
Top
dwg71
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2349
Joined: Wed Jun 08, 2005 4:34 pm

#68 Postby dwg71 » Thu Aug 04, 2005 2:00 pm

Anything could happen, but as of right now, I bet you will see a NHC forecast track that will pass to the east of 20N 60W.
0 likes   
Top
WeatherEmperor
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4806
Age: 41
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:54 pm
Location: South Florida

#69 Postby WeatherEmperor » Thu Aug 04, 2005 2:02 pm

dwg71 wrote:Anything could happen, but as of right now, I bet you will see a NHC forecast track that will pass to the east of 20N 60W.


Yup. Find it hard to disagree with you based on current evidence.

<RICKY>
0 likes   
Top
Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10385
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

#70 Postby Sanibel » Thu Aug 04, 2005 2:19 pm

Still close to Africa, but heading appears to be near west at 275* or so...
0 likes   
Top
dwg71
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2349
Joined: Wed Jun 08, 2005 4:34 pm

#71 Postby dwg71 » Thu Aug 04, 2005 2:22 pm

Sanibel wrote:Still close to Africa, but heading appears to be near west at 275* or so...


you just opened a can of worms..

i'll summarize next 5 posts:

No 280, No its 315, no its 265, its moving 330 - duhhh!, its just a wobble it will resume 276 heading in a few hours...
0 likes   
Top
Scorpion

#72 Postby Scorpion » Thu Aug 04, 2005 2:25 pm

Good thing the wobble wars haven't started yet. But that will change once it gets closer.
0 likes   
Top
Frank2
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4061
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2005 12:47 pm

#73 Postby Frank2 » Thu Aug 04, 2005 2:30 pm

The NHC models for TD9 show the system recurving well before 60W, so it's likely not to be something to get too excited about at this time, however, what is of significance is that this would be the third system out of the last four (not counting Gert) to either form in the western Atlantic and move northeast, or recurve well east of the islands.

And, if we also count the one strong tropical wave immediately behind Emily, which also recuved near 50W (and most likely would have developed into a substantial system), this could truly signal some sort of long-term pattern, and is why, despite some comments here otherwise, I've maintained that this weakness in the subtropical ridge (east of 70W) might be the case for the remainder of the season, especially since it has lingered for the past 3-4 weeks.

Frank
0 likes   
Top
dwg71
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2349
Joined: Wed Jun 08, 2005 4:34 pm

#74 Postby dwg71 » Thu Aug 04, 2005 2:31 pm

Hey Frank....DUCK!
0 likes   
Top
Frank2
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4061
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2005 12:47 pm

#75 Postby Frank2 » Thu Aug 04, 2005 2:32 pm

Quack?
0 likes   
Top
Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10385
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

#76 Postby Sanibel » Thu Aug 04, 2005 2:32 pm

Because someone makes a direction comment in relation to the 'out to sea' question does not deserve a flurry of "wobble" cracks. If you just refrained from doing that there wouldn't be any wobble post problem.

The observation that the wave center is moving near west to maybe 275* is perfectly legitimate and doesn't deserve to be heckled.
0 likes   
Top
Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10385
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

#77 Postby Sanibel » Thu Aug 04, 2005 2:34 pm

Good post Frank2. It tells us the 2004 entrenched High isn't there...
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
deltadog03
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3580
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2005 6:16 pm
Location: Macon, GA

#78 Postby deltadog03 » Thu Aug 04, 2005 2:35 pm

Sanibel wrote:Because someone makes a direction comment in relation to the 'out to sea' question does not deserve a flurry of "wobble" cracks. If you just refrained from doing that there wouldn't be any wobble post problem.

The observation that the wave center is moving near west to maybe 275* is perfectly legitimate and doesn't deserve to be heckled.


AGREED...It dosn't deserve to bashed...i have no problem with anyone putting what they think or see the movement to be...and yes, its moving around "275"
0 likes   
Top
Frank2
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4061
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2005 12:47 pm

#79 Postby Frank2 » Thu Aug 04, 2005 2:36 pm

I'm not sure what everyone is referring to, but, I'm wasn't commenting about any wobble here or there, but, what the long-term pattern seems to be revealing - that there is a general weakness in the ridge between 45-70W, and how it seems to be making a difference in the track of a number of systems.

Frank
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
deltadog03
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3580
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2005 6:16 pm
Location: Macon, GA

#80 Postby deltadog03 » Thu Aug 04, 2005 2:40 pm

sorry, frank...wasn't talking about that...i am just stating that when people put what they see as far as movement...some bash the living daylights out of it...thats all
sorry if it came out that way...
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google [Bot], Team Ghost and 129 guests