TD#9

gkrangers · #341 Postby **gkrangers** » Fri Aug 05, 2005 8:04 pm

It means the BAM and UKMET build the ridge across the Atlantic, and they do not have TD9 getting steered into a weakness in the ridge.

The LBAR is identical to the NHC track (which scares me, that the NHC track is the same as the LBAR..which means the NHC will probably move away from it at 11)..anyway the LBAR puts TD9 into a weakness in the ridge...similar to the GFS and the GFDL will probably show much of the same.

The GFDL that is on the model map is the 18Z run, not the 00z..the 00z doesnt come out for a few hours. The 18z GFDL dissipates the storm in 18 hours.

Also..the SHIPS model takes TD9 to TS strenght in 72 hours..and only 44 knots in 120 hours.

Scorpion · #342 Postby **Scorpion** » Fri Aug 05, 2005 8:08 pm

Perhaps an Andrew scenario? Would be better if it got strong way out at sea, but instead it might get strong closer to shore. The strong ridge looks like another interesting factor.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #343 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Fri Aug 05, 2005 8:08 pm

This storm is not doing anything. I'm still hoping it can become a weak tropical storm so we can have the I.

gkrangers · #344 Postby **gkrangers** » Fri Aug 05, 2005 8:08 pm

Scorpion wrote:Perhaps an Andrew scenario? Would be better if it got strong way out at sea, but instead it might get strong closer to shore. The strong ridge looks like another interesting factor.

The next few days are critical as to whether TD9 recurves or continues towards the mainland.

BensonTCwatcher · #345 Postby **BensonTCwatcher** » Fri Aug 05, 2005 8:11 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:This storm is not doing anything. I'm still hoping it can become a weak tropical storm so we can have the I.

Its's doing something:

1. Staying alive
2. Confusing forecasters
3. Increasing convection
4. Not getting pulled into any weaknesses

It is not intesifying gradually (yet) or dissipating. She is biding her time.

gkrangers · #346 Postby **gkrangers** » Fri Aug 05, 2005 8:13 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:This storm is not doing anything. I'm still hoping it can become a weak tropical storm so we can have the I.

In 24 hours you'll probably be forecasting a major hurricane...

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #347 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Fri Aug 05, 2005 8:14 pm

You think I'm that big of a W!ishcaster? :eek:

BensonTCwatcher · #348 Postby **BensonTCwatcher** » Fri Aug 05, 2005 8:18 pm

I'd say enjoy the uncertianty at this point. No lives are stake or property. This is a perfect system for the folks here. Heck it's too easy when the storm rides aroung a mega-ridge with pinpoint model data.

Don't you think?

gkrangers · #349 Postby **gkrangers** » Fri Aug 05, 2005 8:19 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:You think I'm that big of a W!ishcaster?

Not aloud to use that word.

I just wouldn't call this system dead yet, thats all. Last night it was gonna be a monster hurricane...now nothing? I don't buy it.

elysium · #350 Postby **elysium** » Fri Aug 05, 2005 8:27 pm

95L is clearly gradually intensifying with increase convection and symmetry. We should have a storm in less than 24 hrs. The northern Lesser Antilles and Leeward Islands shouldn't be overly concerned at this time, but could possibly be impacted, although the threat is lessening.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #351 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Fri Aug 05, 2005 8:32 pm

The LLC is way to the north of the convection. The SAL is all over this system.

mahicks · #352 Postby **mahicks** » Fri Aug 05, 2005 8:36 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:The LLC is way to the north of the convection. The SAL is all over this system.

Hey Matt, u got a link of the Sal interacting w/ the TD?

#353 Postby **deltadog03** » Fri Aug 05, 2005 8:36 pm

i think the LLC is already west of 40W....anyone think that??

#354 Postby **micktooth** » Fri Aug 05, 2005 8:37 pm

Can someone please post a link that shows TD9 intensifying? I just don't see it. Me thinks it's much ado about nothing. :hmm:

BensonTCwatcher · #355 Postby **BensonTCwatcher** » Fri Aug 05, 2005 8:42 pm

deltadog03 wrote:i think the LLC is already west of 40W....anyone think that??

No, but we may have more than one. open wave anyway

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dataimages21/cur_hires/zooms/WMBas112.png

superfly · #356 Postby **superfly** » Fri Aug 05, 2005 8:42 pm

micktooth wrote:Can someone please post a link that shows TD9 intensifying? I just don't see it. Me thinks it's much ado about nothing.

It's not intensifying, but it's not dead either.

BensonTCwatcher · #357 Postby **BensonTCwatcher** » Fri Aug 05, 2005 8:48 pm

Watch the movie http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/wavetrak/movies/m8g10split/m8g10splitjava5.html

I think the SAL has been there all along, this storm was lucky to get this far. But it's subsiding out in front.

Seele · #358 Postby **Seele** » Fri Aug 05, 2005 8:54 pm

deltadog03 wrote:i think the LLC is already west of 40W....anyone think that??

Hard to tell at night, but looks to be on or a hair east of 40W. I'd say roughly 17N, 40W.

The WV loop clearly shows an ULL moving south towards #9. Shouldn't we expect the shear from the ULL to keep any strengthening to a minimum?

elysium · #359 Postby **elysium** » Fri Aug 05, 2005 9:05 pm

The ULL is too weak to have any appreciable impact on 95L. There was, surprisingly, some small chance of recurvature earlier this afternoon. Had 95L continued to the N.W., it could possibly have gotten north enough in time to be lifted out. That time frame has long since passed, and the window for recurvature east of 80W is pretty much closed. One thing to keep in mind; 95L may accelerate in forward speed and either run itself out, or, later in the period, impact Hispaniola and Cuba and be torn apart. A fast enough forward speed would put an end to this system, and we could dispense with it. 95L is picking up forward speed by the way. That should be good news to many.

Stratosphere747 · #360 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Fri Aug 05, 2005 9:09 pm

I thought that threads, especially nothing more than a depression were to be halted after 15 pages... :?:

TD#9

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