TD#9
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
It means the BAM and UKMET build the ridge across the Atlantic, and they do not have TD9 getting steered into a weakness in the ridge.
The LBAR is identical to the NHC track (which scares me, that the NHC track is the same as the LBAR..which means the NHC will probably move away from it at 11)..anyway the LBAR puts TD9 into a weakness in the ridge...similar to the GFS and the GFDL will probably show much of the same.
The GFDL that is on the model map is the 18Z run, not the 00z..the 00z doesnt come out for a few hours. The 18z GFDL dissipates the storm in 18 hours.
Also..the SHIPS model takes TD9 to TS strenght in 72 hours..and only 44 knots in 120 hours.
The LBAR is identical to the NHC track (which scares me, that the NHC track is the same as the LBAR..which means the NHC will probably move away from it at 11)..anyway the LBAR puts TD9 into a weakness in the ridge...similar to the GFS and the GFDL will probably show much of the same.
The GFDL that is on the model map is the 18Z run, not the 00z..the 00z doesnt come out for a few hours. The 18z GFDL dissipates the storm in 18 hours.
Also..the SHIPS model takes TD9 to TS strenght in 72 hours..and only 44 knots in 120 hours.
0 likes
- BensonTCwatcher
- Category 5
- Posts: 1046
- Joined: Sat Aug 28, 2004 10:11 pm
- Location: Southport NC
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:This storm is not doing anything. I'm still hoping it can become a weak tropical storm so we can have the I.
Its's doing something:
1. Staying alive
2. Confusing forecasters
3. Increasing convection
4. Not getting pulled into any weaknesses
It is not intesifying gradually (yet) or dissipating. She is biding her time.
0 likes
- BensonTCwatcher
- Category 5
- Posts: 1046
- Joined: Sat Aug 28, 2004 10:11 pm
- Location: Southport NC
- deltadog03
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 3580
- Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2005 6:16 pm
- Location: Macon, GA
- BensonTCwatcher
- Category 5
- Posts: 1046
- Joined: Sat Aug 28, 2004 10:11 pm
- Location: Southport NC
deltadog03 wrote:i think the LLC is already west of 40W....anyone think that??
No, but we may have more than one. open wave anyway
http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dataimages21/cur_hires/zooms/WMBas112.png
0 likes
- BensonTCwatcher
- Category 5
- Posts: 1046
- Joined: Sat Aug 28, 2004 10:11 pm
- Location: Southport NC
Watch the movie http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/wavetrak/movies/m8g10split/m8g10splitjava5.html
I think the SAL has been there all along, this storm was lucky to get this far. But it's subsiding out in front.
I think the SAL has been there all along, this storm was lucky to get this far. But it's subsiding out in front.
0 likes
deltadog03 wrote:i think the LLC is already west of 40W....anyone think that??
Hard to tell at night, but looks to be on or a hair east of 40W. I'd say roughly 17N, 40W.
The WV loop clearly shows an ULL moving south towards #9. Shouldn't we expect the shear from the ULL to keep any strengthening to a minimum?
0 likes
The ULL is too weak to have any appreciable impact on 95L. There was, surprisingly, some small chance of recurvature earlier this afternoon. Had 95L continued to the N.W., it could possibly have gotten north enough in time to be lifted out. That time frame has long since passed, and the window for recurvature east of 80W is pretty much closed. One thing to keep in mind; 95L may accelerate in forward speed and either run itself out, or, later in the period, impact Hispaniola and Cuba and be torn apart. A fast enough forward speed would put an end to this system, and we could dispense with it. 95L is picking up forward speed by the way. That should be good news to many.
0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 3772
- Joined: Thu Sep 11, 2003 8:34 pm
- Location: Surfside Beach/Freeport Tx
- Contact:
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: dl20415, Google [Bot], Hurricaneman, IcyTundra, johngaltfla, Killjoy12, Pelicane, smoothbrain, Stratton23, TampaWxLurker, Tireman4 and 94 guests