When will this season get REALLY active?

[boca]

As long as we have ULL's all over the Atlantic the season will not be as active but that will most likely change in 2 or 3 weeks.

[WindRunner]

(TB Hurricane peers into his explicit crystal ball)

So this temporary lull will probably last till about the 13-15th I'd say. Then we go back to a strong active pattern...time will tell oh well...
What about MJO and shear factors????

Favorable MJO is coming up shortly, and shear from the ULLs will last who knows how long, but the MJO seems to be the bigger factor. My date: 11th-13th.

[Astro_man92]

Umm i already made a poll on this here is the link

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=69708 I made it a while ago (about 3 or 4 days ago lol)Never mind

[Jack8631]

Thanks for good info.

Smart-alecky post ignored.

When you post a ridiculous topic, expect a little constructive criticism.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

As I pointed out earlier, there has been a bona fide lull since Emily. Due to the factors causing this lull and my general concern, there is nothing "ridiculous" about asking when the lull will end.

If I wanted to, I could call your failure to consider the lull "ridiculous", but I will not stoop to that level.

My initial intent was never to downplay what already happened, but to try to discern when certain factors would favor a return to intense activity that has been absent since Emily.

[Hurricaneman]

at the earliest aug 10
at the latest aug 20

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Thank you all for the information.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Update:
If the GFS has merit, the MJO and other factors should
become more favorable for development by
August 10-15, leading to several potential systems
by August 20-30th. Things may explode sometime
in late August.

[Scorpion]

August 20th or so all hell breaks loose in the Atlantic.

[kevin]

When was the lull????!

There are two tropical systems out there!

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The lull is based on Unfavorable Madden Julian Oscillation.


I know but they were relatively weak compared to the serious major activity brought on my Emily and Dennis- This is clearly less active than the dennis/emily period.
I am referring to the MJO favorability phases, and have found my answer

[Frank2]

Yes, since Emily there has been a lull, relatively speaking, for various reasons - the F, G, H, and I systems have all been relatively weak (never having reached hurricane status), and no other depressions have formed within this same period.

If all hurricane seasons were like the past four systems, this board would be out of business (and so would the plywood distributors) - it's a good guess that most if not all down here are glad for the respite.

Frank

[WeatherEmperor]

there hasnt been that of a significant lull. Harvey is still out there and Irene just formed albeit she is gonna be a fish most likely.

<RICKY>

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I am glad also for the lull since now it is easier to do house repairs.

[gkrangers]

The lull may be better described as unfavorable conditions for significant tropical development in the Atlantic basin.

[Jack8631]

As I pointed out earlier, there has been a bona fide lull since Emily. Due to the factors causing this lull and my general concern, there is nothing "ridiculous" about asking when the lull will end.

If I wanted to, I could call your failure to consider the lull "ridiculous", but I will not stoop to that level.

My initial intent was never to downplay what already happened, but to try to discern when certain factors would favor a return to intense activity that has been absent since Emily.

No need for the bold text; I understand where you are coming from. The fact remains that we are experiencing a tropical season that has already made history..breaking records that have been kept since 1851. I still don't agree that there is a "lull"; last time I checked we had two active tropical storms.

[WeatherEmperor]

As I pointed out earlier, there has been a bona fide lull since Emily. Due to the factors causing this lull and my general concern, there is nothing "ridiculous" about asking when the lull will end.

If I wanted to, I could call your failure to consider the lull "ridiculous", but I will not stoop to that level.

My initial intent was never to downplay what already happened, but to try to discern when certain factors would favor a return to intense activity that has been absent since Emily.

No need for the bold text; I understand where you are coming from. The fact remains that we are experiencing a tropical season that has already made history..breaking records that have been kept since 1851. I still don't agree that there is a "lull"; last time I checked we had two active tropical storms.

I agree with you. Although neither Harvey nor Irene is currently causing problems to any landmass, they are still there. Perhaps this lull some people refer to is the fact that none is in immediate striking distance of any land. who knows.

<RICKY>

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I apologize for overreacting to your posts.

You are right, we are still making history with a ninth named storm for example.

We are not in a true lull I agree. But I was thinking of MJO, which I should have specified at the beginning of the post.


Thank you all for the replies


Yee hawww it's tropics time!!!
Vhahoo vheer iz zeee clickerrr...

[Jack8631]

I apologize for overreacting to your posts.

You are right, we are still making history with a ninth named storm for example.

We are not in a true lull I agree. But I was thinking of MJO, which I should have specified at the beginning of the post.


Thank you all for the replies


Yee hawww it's tropics time!!!
Vhahoo vheer iz zeee clickerrr...

I'd like to apologize as well for calling you out like that. Very much out of character for me.

[wxmann_91]

IMHO this is a lull, but it's not because nothing hit land. There can be five fish out in the Atlantic that are major hurricanes and that's not a lull, but five in a month that hit land but are TS's, and that is a lull. Look at all the potential developers over the last few weeks, and only four developed, and all were TS's, none were hurricanes. The lull is caused somewhat by the SAL but moreso by the ULL's that crisscross the Atlantic (refer to NHC's Irene disco at 11:00 AM). Whether this has anything to do with the MJO I don't know, but there is an interesting correlation between the MJO and the reduced activity.