TS Irene=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread
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It looks like Irene has stalled in warmer water and that the sheer is lessening. What the NHC is forecasting is for Irene to move through the gap created between the eastern and western ridge before the two ridges bridge. If Irene can slow down or stall without moving northward into the gap and allow the gap to bridge, she would be under a large ridge extending from the eastern atlantic all the way to the GOM.
If Irene continues moving W.N.W. into the gap, she again would likely stall out and meander under the building ridge. It just doesn't seem likely that the weakness will be sufficient enough to induce recurvature. That issue may be moot if she stalls out now which is what may be happening. At the very least her forward motion has slowed considerably. And don't discount erratic motion at this jucture. This too is possible. If in fact this is a stall or considerable slowdown, it may complicate the official forecast indicating that Irene will recurve out into the open sea to fish.
If Irene continues moving W.N.W. into the gap, she again would likely stall out and meander under the building ridge. It just doesn't seem likely that the weakness will be sufficient enough to induce recurvature. That issue may be moot if she stalls out now which is what may be happening. At the very least her forward motion has slowed considerably. And don't discount erratic motion at this jucture. This too is possible. If in fact this is a stall or considerable slowdown, it may complicate the official forecast indicating that Irene will recurve out into the open sea to fish.
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This map shows the shear down 10 to 20 knots. But the Cdo is getting sheared to the East again?
I would think that this would of pumped enough Laten heat by now to builld a upper high over it.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html
I would think that this would of pumped enough Laten heat by now to builld a upper high over it.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html
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Because its getting sheared, duh. The shear map may not be accurate.Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:The freaking shear is down to 10 to 15 knots over the cyclone. With a 10 to 20 knot decrease. Why in the heck is the cdo still getting blown off? That seem favable enough to me.
Why on earth is it not staying?
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- wxman57
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At 4:45am CDT, Irene's center was at 21.8N/49.4W. I can see it quite clearly on the first visible image. It's separated from the convection and still moving to the WNW. Absolutely, positively, Irene is a TD. No question about it. Time to get ready for work. I'll fire up McIdas and snap some good images today.
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- WindRunner
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- wxman57
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Ok, I'm at work now. Here's a McIdas image of Irene. As you can see, a fairly tight low-level swirl but no convection anywhere around it:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/irene31.gif
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/irene31.gif
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- Hyperstorm
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I think Irene is about to be history today...
The reason why this system has hung around in this extremely hostile environment, when others wouldn't have done it, is because since the very beginning the system had a large/broad circulation/envelope. Each day that passes, the system's LLC is growing smaller in size. It's now showing signs of becoming a mere vortex with no deep convection within 6-12 hours, if not sooner.
It really shouldn't come in as a suprise if that happens, because the possibility has been mentioned endlessly...
The reason why this system has hung around in this extremely hostile environment, when others wouldn't have done it, is because since the very beginning the system had a large/broad circulation/envelope. Each day that passes, the system's LLC is growing smaller in size. It's now showing signs of becoming a mere vortex with no deep convection within 6-12 hours, if not sooner.
It really shouldn't come in as a suprise if that happens, because the possibility has been mentioned endlessly...
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Hyperstorm wrote:I think Irene is about to be history today...
The reason why this system has hung around in this extremely hostile environment, when others wouldn't have done it, is because since the very beginning the system had a large/broad circulation/envelope. Each day that passes, the system's LLC is growing smaller in size. It's now showing signs of becoming a mere vortex with no deep convection within 6-12 hours, if not sooner.
It really shouldn't come in as a suprise if that happens, because the possibility has been mentioned endlessly...
Actually it looks like the center has tightend up to me . If it were going to dissapte I think it would being opening up. I think since it has fought the conditions for so long, it's more likely to survive. That being said, it looks like crap now without most of it's convection.
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- vbhoutex
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wxman57 wrote:I notice the new model data coming out of the NHC identifies the system as Tropical Depression Irene, so they are going to finally downgrade it.
That sure makes sense after looking at the satellite presentation of this system!!! I haven't zoomed in on it or looped it, but it sure doesn't look too healthy this am. She really needs to get to a better environment if she is to survive.
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